Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks And Preview

Identifying NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks and Bets

A terrible Week 8 on these pages going 0-2, and especially disappointing considering underdogs went 10-4 ATS last week. I bet others with some success including big ugly ‘Dog New York Giants (+13) in a 2-point loss Monday night to the Buccaneers.

Read more of my insight and added Week 9 picks and analysis at Offshore Gaming Association, where I have contributed for years before there was legal sports betting in the U.S. (other than Nevada).

I keep stats in a spread sheet weekly and update periodically on these pages with Inside the Numbers. To learn more about my career and history, read my handicapping success, strategies and sports betting stories. See how I provided 8 straight years of winning NFL selections with greater than 57% ATS success on nearly NFL 650 plays.

I recognize on these pages we’re having a poor run and losing 2020 season through eight weeks. The 3-plus year run has dropped to 86-69 ATS (55.5%) picking underdogs only.

Hopefully you still pickup some information and insight you can use. Learn to follow and adjust to the swift betting markets and information that matters during unprecedented times and COVID-19.

NFL Week 9 Underdog Picks

452 Buffalo (+3) vs Seattle – Bills Moneyline +140
260 Indianapolis (+2) vs Baltimore – Ravens Moneyline +110

Seattle at Buffalo

An interconference clash between division leaders and Buffalo (6-2) is a must play IMO as Seattle (6-1) travels West to far East. I’ve already added the Bills to my teaser plays as well, and expect a Bills win. Buffalo’s defense has not performed close to last year’s level, but improvement expected in the second half of the season with better health. Hope it shows up and starts this week against the Seahawks top-tier offense and MVP quarterback Russell Wilson guiding an offense averaging 414 yards per game and league best 6.4 yards per play and 34.3 points per game. Wilson has tossed 26 TD passes which is one short of the NFL record through seven games. But that Seahawks defense remains a sieve, and so poorly coordinated allowing a league worst 460 yards per game – 100 YPG worse than the Bills. The Bills offense and scoring has declined considerably the last four games, but expect Buffalo to stampede this week. These two teams net yards per play is nearly equal, and Seattle is being out-gained by an average of nearly 50 yards per game despite Wilson, DK Metcalf and the efficient offense continuing to roll up yards and points while also enjoying a plus-6 turnover margin.

Many leading online sportsbooks are taking more than 80% of the point spread bets and money (handle) on the Seahawks in this match-up. That’s fine by us, and not uncommon as most bettors continue to bet on favorites and pile on over-valued one’s as well. I encourage and advise you not to fall for the Sea chickens this week, as they travel East in back-to-back road games and a tough opponent between division games. Buffalo is one of the toughest places to play in the NFL, and while we wish fans were in the stands and the weather was worse to make it an even louder and tougher environment, I expect a two-game losing streak to start this week and don’t believe Seattle gets out of Buffalo with a win.

As injury reports, COVID-19 status and new quarterback news (Dallas, Jacksonville) are reported, we may add additional picks. We need to dig deeper into our rushing stats and point of attack play to determine more match-up edges and potential plays to pass along. Any news would be posted on Twitter @FairwayJay.