Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 13 Underdog Picks And Preview

Identifying NFL Week 13 Underdog Picks and Bets

A 6-1 run in Week 11 and Week 12 has improved our underdog only picks on these pages to 17-19 ATS this season with 11 outright underdog winners. The 3-plus year run is now 94-73 ATS (56.3%).

To learn more about my career and history, read my handicapping success, strategies and sports betting stories. See how I provided 8 straight years of winning NFL selections with greater than 57% ATS success on nearly NFL 650 plays.

Last week we chipped-in a Play of the Day winner on the Falcons (+3.5), who romped over the Raiders 43-6. The Falcons gave the Raiders a dose of their own medicine, outrushing Vegas 125-40 with 32 rushing attempts for the Falcons and a season low 14 for the depleted Raiders. No holding back in NFL Week 13 with five underdog picks with analysis and information you can bet on.

I explain the importance of rushing numbers, attempts and other handicapping insite in my Inside the Numbers update through November.

Before you review the five underdog picks below for Week 13, check out the betting percentages and other market data in my weekly Recency Report I provide to TheLines. It includes the Week 14 lookahead lines plus live betting odds for Week 13 and every week from industry leading sportsbooks including others I contribute to like FanDuel.

To read all the game analysis, check out my Week 13 update at Offshore Gaming Association.

NFL Week 13 Underdog Picks

451 Detroit (+3) at Chicago – Lions Moneyline +150
453 Cincinnati (+11.5) at Miami – Bengals Moneyline +455
464 Atlanta (+3) vs New Orleans – Falcons Moneyline +140
465 Cleveland (+6) at Tennessee – Browns Moneyline +200
474 Los Angeles (+1) vs New England – Chargers Moneyline +100

Detroit at Chicago

Some online sportsbooks opened a bad line with Chicago a 6-point favorite and pro/sharp bettors clawed like a Lion to bet on Detroit. The Lions finally canned their coach Matt Patricia this past week and offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell takes over as interim coach the rest of the season. The Lions (4-7) troubles started in Week 1 when they blew a big lead and lost 27-23 to the Bears (5-6). Mitch Trubisky was back at quarterback for the Bears last week in Chicago’s embarrassing showing at Green Bay in a 41-25 loss that included a 3-0 turnover differential. Incredibly, Trubisky has tossed 21% of his career touchdown passes against the Lions in four games, going 4-0 with 12 TD passes and a 124.39 QB rating. Don’t expect the Lions to continue in man-to-man coverage this week with Trubisky’s struggles against zone coverage. Pro Football Focus says Detroit played more man coverage than any NFL team in 2018, 2019 and 2020. Concerning for Detroit is an injury list that includes WR Kenny Golloday, but rookie RB D’Andre Swift has cleared concussion protocol and should return if he overcomes a recent illness. The Lions looked like turkey’s in a Thanksgiving Day loss, but extra rest, prep and a new outlook and coaching philosophy provides some hope. While Bears head coach Matt Nagy is 5-0 against the Lions, Chicago fits a poor late season situation returning home off a loss as a short favorite of 3 points or less. The Lions and Bears defenses both allow an average of 30 rushing attempts per game. But it’s Chicago that is rushing a league-low 21.2 times per game and league-worst 82 rushing yards per game. You want to trust Trubisky as favorite after his two interceptions and strip sack touchdown last week? Lions roar back, at least for one week against a weaker division rival.