Fairway’s Football Forecast – NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks And Preview

Identifying NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks and Bets

Our best week of the 2020 NFL season on these pages in Week 11 produced a 4-0 ATS result with three outright underdog winners. Not up to 15-18 ATS on those plays posted here and at osga, where I chip in added insight and information you can bet on. The 3-plus year record posting underdog picks on these pages is now 92-72 (56%).

Be sure to check out the added stats I post in Week 12 at osga as I provided more rushing info that can guide you in your NFL handicapping.

On Friday, I picked up the most popular teams and bets for NFL Week 12 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

• Cardinals 90% of bets and 91% of money (handle) over Patriots
• Browns 87% of bets and 90% of money over Jaguars
• Raiders 87% of bets and 82% of money over Falcons
• Dolphins 89% of bets and 91% of money over Jets
• Giants 93% of bets and 93% of money over Bengals
• Steelers 80% of bets and 90% of money over Ravens
• Chiefs 91% of bets and 86% of money over Buccaneers
• Seahawks 94% of bets and 91 of money over Eagles

Last week we were against the popular plays including our bet on the Denver Broncos (+3.5), who beat Miami 20-13 and outgained the Dolphins 459-223 with 189 rushing yards. Miami took more than 90% of the bets and money (handle) on that game and closed a 4-point favorite.

To learn more about my career and history, read my handicapping success, strategies and sports betting stories. See how I provided 8 straight years of winning NFL selections with greater than 57% ATS success on nearly NFL 650 plays.

Clearly this week our plays won’t be too popular either, especially with the winless New York Jets (0-10) hosting the Miami Dolphins (6-4) in a AFC East tussle.

NFL Week 12 Underdog Picks

252 Atlanta (+3) vs Las Vegas – Falcons Moneyline +140
266 New York Jets (+7) vs Miami – Jets Moneyline +285
272 Tampa Bay (+3.5) vs Kansas City – Buccaneers Moneyline +170

Note the Ravens and Steelers game was moved from Thursday to Sunday and now Tuesday, Dec. 1. Ravens QB Lamar Jackson tested positive for COVID-19 Thursday and will miss the Ravens next two games.

Las Vegas at Atlanta

We were on the Raiders last week and for the second time this season against Kansas City last week. Now we switch gears, despite the apparent rushing advante for the Silver and Black. Tough spot, travel and off emotional last minute loss to the Chiefs.

Miami at New York Jets

Seriously, if you can’t pull the trigger on the Jets this week, then you’re not making money betting the NFL in the long term. The Jets are playing better, are a little more efficient and better efficiency on a play-by-play basis than their opponents the last two games in close losses while going 2-0 ATS. That includes against the Patriots when the Jets averaged 7.3 yards per play with just 23 minutes of possession time when blowing a late lead to lose 30-27. The fish could get fried this week.

Kansas City at Tampa Bay

Tough to play against the Chiefs I know. We did last week with a winner, but have been burned by Mahomes and the Chiefs offense before too. Now KC faces a top-tier Buccaneers defense off a MNF loss to the Rams. Tampa’s defense and running game on offense will determine the result. Recall when the Packers were such a popular pick at Tampa Bay in Week 5? Final Bucs 38 Packers 10.

Three home ‘Dogs with bite to chew on this week. Home ‘Dogs just above .500 ATS this season after last week’s 4-1 ATS result with the Broncos, Rams and Raiders delivering for us on these pages.