FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection – Week 5

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FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Game Analysis of Buffalo at Cleveland

Line:  Browns -3.5 | Total: 41

The Bills (2-2) and Browns (2-2) make their only national TV appearance on Thursday, October 3, 2013 as the NFL Network carries the coverage live from FirstEnergy Stadium in Cleveland, OH.  The Browns have won back-to-back games following their 17-6 division home ‘Dog win over the Bengals Sunday.  We cashed with both the Browns and a Big Drive top-play ‘under’ the total winner in that contest, and we have a play in Thursday’s Brown’s game below.

Browns QB Brian Hoyer has played well and provided the offense a passing game threat. Last week against a good Bengals defense, Hoyer went 25-38 for 269 yards with 2 TD’s and zero interceptions. The Bills have some talent on defense and especially up front, and an improvement on that side of the ball is expected as the season progresses.

The difference in this Thursday night football handicapping contest is the Browns defense, as Cleveland allows just 291 ypg to rank #3 in the league along with a league-low 4.2 yards per play. Combined with a run defense allowing just 79 rushing ypg and league-low 2.9 ypr, and the Browns can slow down what the Bills do best.  The Bills #2 rushing attack is averaging 151 rushing ypg, but both RB’s Spiller (ankle) and Jackson (knee brace) are banged up following last week’s win. Spiller remains questionable but we’ll anticipate him playing. The Bills defense is allowing 400 ypg, and in their only road game this season, Buffalo allowed the suspect Jets offense to rack up 513 yards at 7.3 yards per play.

Can’t trust Bills rookie QB E.J. Manual to make enough plays or accurate throws to sustain drives on the road against this top-tier Browns defense. Manual was just 10/22 for 167 yards and 2 INT’s in last week’s home win over Baltimore, but on a short week with little time to prepare, this will be QB Manual’s and the Bills offense toughest challenge to date.

In the Bills 27-20 loss to the Jets, Manual could only guide the Bills offense into the end zone one time; in the fourth quarter. He again completed less than 50% of his passes while having to throw 42 times playing from behind in the second half.  In this Thursday night football handicapping contest, expect the Bills to try and run the ball, but once slowed, the Browns defense should bring plenty of pressure to force Manual into mistakes and inaccurate throws.  Meanwhile, the Browns will likely give recently added RB Willis McGahee more carries as the Bills run defense has allowed 122 rushing ypg to rank #27 in the NFL.

Adding to the support on the Cleveland side is not only their superior defense, but the short week is always an advantage to the Thursday night home team from a travel perspective. The Browns surely remember last year’s home loss to the Bills 24-14, and know that Buffalo has won just 2 of their last 16 road games. This is also the Bills first game on grass this season. With two new QB’s now guiding their teams and neither one too capable or even an average NFL quarterback, the defenses appear more likely to control the flow in this match-up.

Below is FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection, be sure to take a look at my TOP 3 NFL Plays for only $39 dollars and also get my FULL Month of NFL plays for $249 dollars!

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FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Thursday Night Football

FairwayJay’s TOP 3 NFL Plays for Week 5

 

FairwayJay’s FULL NFL Selections for Week 5