FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Week 14

FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Week 14 & Game Analysis of Houston at Jacksonville

Line: Texans -3.5 or -3 (-120) l Total: 43

The Houston Texans ( 2-10 SU / 3-9 ATS ) travel to the Jacksonville to take on the Jaguars ( 3-9 SU/ 4-8 ATS ) in a quick turnaround and divisional match-up.  No team has burned their betting backers more than the Houston Texans, who have become the league’s biggest disappointment this season.  The NFL Network and TV commentators can try as hard as they can to keep us interested in these two teams, but the bottom line is they both stink.  The Texans and Jaguars are a combined 5-19 SU and 7-17 ATS.  Like offense?  Not tonight, as the Jaguars league-worst attack is ‘offensive’, gaining just 286 YPG, 4.7 yards per play, 71 rushing YPG and 15 points per game.  Jacksonville won 13-7 two week ago at Houston, and the Texans defense is still a top-tier unit ranking #3 in total yards against.

Following an 0-8 start with historically bad offensive numbers, the Jaguars have started to play like professionals and prove once again in the NFL that you cannot simply give up or bet against bad teams week after week.  Jacksonville has won 3 of their last 4, all on the road, while going 3-1 ATS.  They have more energy and excitement and that alone may be reason to support them against a reeling Texans team that has little positive momentum or play.  But know the Jaguars are the inferior team.  Off back-to-back road wins including 13-6 at Houston, the Jaguars return home as a ‘Dog for their 14-th straight game this season.  However, the Jags are now priced as the smallest underdog of their season.  While they are clearly playing better, must note that Jacksonville still has the worst home field and support in the NFL and the Jaguars are the only winless team at home this season at 0-5.  And those losses are ugly, with every defeat by at least 13 points.

Despite these poor stats for the Jaguars, must note recent improvement and that the team has not quit on the season.  Quarterback Chad Henne has had his best two games of the season the past two weeks; both victories. Against the Texans two weeks ago, he stood tall in the pocket against a strong pass rush and made clutch throws late in the game. Last week, Henne led a 80-yard, game-winning drive in the final minutes at Cleveland. His veteran leadership and productive play has helped the Jaguars recover from a historically bad start, while the Texans have benched their veteran QB Schaub in favor of rookie QB Case Keenum, who is now 0-6 as a starter.  Note that while the Jaguars running game is poor and failed to produce a 100 yards rushing in their first 10 games, Jacksonville has rushed for at least 100 yards in each of their last two games to balance the offense. And defensively, since the Jaguars bye week, they have simplified their defensive scheme and have held their last four opponents to less than 100 yards rushing. That should serve them well against a Texans offense that is build around a down hill running attack behind a zone-blocking scheme. With offensive line struggles and playing without star RB Arian Foster, the Texans ground game has fallen from 153 and 131 rushing YPG the past two seasons to 116 YPG this year and just 96 rushing YPG the past three games.  Annually among the league-leaders in rushing attempts per game at over 30/game, the Texans average 26 rushing attempts per game this season and just 23 per game their last three contests as rookie QB Keenum has had to throw the ball more often.

Hard to believe the Texans have fallen this far and with 10-straight losses, they continue to find ways to lose and now trail the Jaguars in the division and have the NFL’s worst record.  Not interested in supporting the Texans as a road favorite, as Houston is 0-6 ATS as a favorite this season.  However, despite the Jaguars improved play, how can you feel confident supporting them with their proven profiles and losing ways at home?   The Texans stock has fallen to league-lows, while the Jaguars are on an upswing.  The Texans to me still have much more talent and the better offense and defense.  But chemistry and personnel issues along with finding ways to lose on a weekly basis have derailed this Texans team.  No good fortune and tough losses week after week while also blowing big leads. Turnover troubles and a -12 TO margin have added to the misery. We did cash a winner on the Texans last week as a rated par play; part of our 9-3-1 week overall.  They had a solid shot to beat the Patriots as a big home underdog, but managed to blow an early 17-7 lead and late 3-point lead in a 34-31 defeat. Note the Patriots were not flagged for a single penalty at Houston.

While I expect the Texans pride to come through tonight, I think we’ll use history as our guide for tonight’s winner.  The Texans defense is still ranked #3 in the NFL allowing 304 YPG.  These teams played a 13-6 game just two weeks ago as they Jaguars out-gained the Texans 333-218 in victory.  in their last two visits to this site, the Texans beat the Jaguars 24-14 and 27-7.  While the trends point to scoring in these teams’ recent games with 4 of the last 5 Houston games and 6 of the last 8 Jaguars games going over the total, I prefer the match-ups and personnel to support a lower-scoring game like the first meeting this season and recent series history at this site.

I provide additional insight on this game and all of Sunday’s games on my week 14 podcast.

 

Already a member? Click here to log in.

FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Thursday Night Football