FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Week 12

FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Week 12 & Game Analysis of New Orleans at Atlanta

Line: Saints -9 l Total: 53

The New Orleans Saints (8-2 SU / 4-4 ATS) travel to the Georgia Dome to take on division rival Atlanta Falcons (2-8 SU / 2-8 ATS) in a Thursday night game.  No team has burned their betting backers more than the Atlanta Falcons; one of this year’s most disappointing teams.

This line reached 9.5 and was too high IMO, and the money is showing on the home underdog Falcons with 8s showing in key places.  I’m not one to lay nearly double-digits on the road in the NFL, but that’s the margin the Saints will have to win by to cover tonight.  However, making a contrary call on the Falcon’s is difficult with their fundamentals lacking at the point of attack along with current form, injuries and mental makeup.

Recall this is an Atlanta team that won 14 games last season culminated by a NFC Championship game loss on this field. The Falcon’s have fallen hard since, going 2-8 SU and on a 4-game losing streak.  That free fall is the farthest of any team in the NFL this season, and the Falcon’s fortunes at home have deteriorated to 2-3 SU/ATS with their only wins against division dwellers St. Louis and Tampa Bay.  Last week the Buccaneers buried the floundering Falcons 41-28 with a rookie RB making his starting debut rushing for 163 yards and 2 touchdowns.  More turnover troubles for the Falcons in that game and they now stand -11 in turnover margin; tied for the worst in the NFL. The week before the Seahawks came to the Georgia Dome and buried the Falcons 33-10 with another ground game assault as Seattle pounded the ground with 211 rushing yards while piling up 490 total yards offense. How big is the point spread adjustment?  Seattle was laying 3.5-points as the leagues best team and now the Saints are laying 9 on a short week in a negative situation.

But how do you think the Saints will do with their NFC-best 419 YPG offense led by All-Pro QB Drew Brees?  While it’s a tough turnaround spot traveling on a short week against a division rival, the Saints are still motivated with just a 1-game lead in NFC South over red-hot Carolina and New Orleans is still pushing for a top-2 playoff seed in the NFC.  Further issues compounding a likely less-than peak performance from the Saints is that they just played the physical 49ers last week and used all energy to pull out a late win at the gun 23-20.  That victory was despite a negative (-2) turnover differential; a key point spread indicator that says the Saint’s should have lost more than 80% of the time.

But while the Saints offense and QB Brees make headlines, it’s the defense that has made the biggest turnaround and improvement in the NFL this season.  Last week the Saints held San Francisco under 200 yards offense. New Orleans has allowed just 18 points per game and 305 ypg, but note the Saints allow a near-league average of 5.2 yards per play. The Saints won the week 1 game over the Falcons 23-17 and both QB’s passed for over 300 yards. Expect more of the same tonight with more scoring as both these teams and QB’s rank top-5 in passing attempts averaging over 40 per game.  The Saints and QB Brees average 322 passing ypg while Atlanta and QB Ryan average 274 passing ypg. Despite all those pass attempts and a suspect Atlanta line (at least in run blocking), these two QB’s rank among the fewest sacked QB’s in the league (both top-6 just 2x/game).

While I would like to take the big division home ‘Dog likely to bring their best this week, I can’t make a fundamental case as Atlanta is very poor at the point-of-attack with the league’s worst rushing team averaging just 73 ypg while being out-rushed by an average of 60 yards per game.  In fact, Atlanta has allowed an average of 150+ ypg rushing and 5.0 yards per rush their last seven games as injuries have mounted on both sides of the ball.  More importantly, the Falcons run the ball a league-low 18 times per game. Should they stay under 20 rushes again vs. the Saints, know that they have a strong chance of not only losing again, but failing to cover as teams that run the ball 20 or less times in a game are 10-61 ATS this season (where else would you get that information).

Tough call for this bureau but since the ball will be in the air often and the Falcon’s offense showed some life last week with over 410 yards offense, let’s call for two top-tier QB’s to lead the way in another higher-scoring Saints/Falcons game.  The over is 4-0 in the Saints last four road games vs. a team with a losing home record and the Saints offense should continue to shine indoors on the FieldTurf, where New Orleans is 5-1 to the ‘over’ their last six games on such surface. The over is 6-1 in the Falcons last seven home games including last years playoffs.

I provide some more insight on this game and all of Sunday’s games on my week 12 podcast.

 

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