FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection Week 10

FairwayJay’s FREE NFL Selection & Game Analysis of Washington at Minnesota

Line: Redskins -2 I Total: 49

The Minnesota Vikings (1-7 SU / 3-5 ATS) continue their losing ways Thursday with their third-straight national TV appearance in prime time. Not what the networks had in mind when scheduling the Vikings with star running back Adrian Peterson. Fortunately, we have nearly cashed our biggest season win total wager on ‘under’ season wins for Minnesota. They are now a home underdog to the defenseless Washington Redskins (3-5 SU / 3-5 ATS) who take a big step down after facing top-tier or above average offenses their last four games going 2-2 vs. the Chargers, Broncos, Bears and Cowboys.  Minnesota’s offense is #27 in the NFL averaging 316 ypg and also below average 5.2 yards per play. Christian Ponder will start at quarterback again in their QB carousel. While he had his best game last week at Dallas and nearly passing the Vikings to victory with 236 yards, he has a QB rating of 72.5 with 3 TD’s and 6  INT’s in five starts. He’ll now be without his top target TE Kyle Rudolph, who is also a strong blocker and suffered a broken foot against the Cowboys last week.  Further ailing the Vikings offense is the loss of RT Phil Loadholt, who suffered  a concussion last week and is one of the Vikings top offensive lineman.  Minnesota’s top two WR’s Jerome Simpson and Greg Jennings have combined for 60 receptions, 838 yards and 2 TD’s. They’ll get a chance to improve those poor stats against a porous Redskins pass defense allowing 282 passing ypg and 8.3 yards per pass play.  Yet facing QB’s Rivers, P. Manning, Stafford, Rogers and the Eagles spread with Vick is a tough task compared to defending the pathetic purple passing attack and QB Ponder.

I provide some initial insight on this game and all of Sunday’s games on my Week 10 Podcast recorded November 5th.

Both these defenses mirror each other statistically allowing 395 and 398 ypg respectively. The Redskins do allow a league-worst 6.1 yards per play, but again facing stronger offenses and teams than Minnesota.  The Redskins read-option with QB RG3 should have plenty of success running zone blocking against a Vikings defense that lost to a similar style offense on this field against Carolina, 35-10. The Panthers pounded the ball on the ground 39 times that game and more of the same from Washington, who rushed for  209 yards against both the Chargers and Bears at home the past three weeks. Note that the Redskins also out-gained the Cowboys in Dallas 433-213 but lost 31-16 with a continued theme of very poor special teams. In fact, Washington had more rushing yards (216) than Dallas had total yards that game.  The Redskins should excel on the fast indoor track at the dome in Minneapolis.  Green Bay, another strong rushing team ran for 182 yards against the Vikings on this field in a 44-31 rout October 27th.   That game is also telling, as the Vikings have been playing without starting safety Harrison Smith and have additional injury issues on defense. Cornerback Chris Cook missed last week’s game (hip) and is likely to miss Thursday despite practicing Tuesday.  The other safety Jamarca Sanford has a groin injury and did not practice this week. So secondary concerns combined with a run defense that has been gashed by stronger running games spells more problems for the purple a their home dome.

The Redskins do rank #5 in ypg offense averaging 405 ypg and improving along with RG3 health.  Last week Washington used a number of run-heavy looks and multiple personnel packages to keep the Chargers off balance. The Redskins rolled up 500 yards offense with a very balanced attack including 209 rushing yards.  Good balance features a running game averaging 146 ypg at 5.0 ypg led by RB Alfred Morris with 688 yards in eight games. Quarterback Robert Griffin lll is running less and has not rushed for a TD, but he’s passing for 270 ypg with a 8/8 TD/INT ratio and the ‘Skins have played six teams with a .500 or better record plus the 4-5 Eagles with strong, spread offense.  The Vikings are a bottom-tier pass defense ranking #27 allowing 291 ypg, 67% completions and opposing QB rating of 96.6.  Griffin should have a big game through the air after the Redskins pound the ground with success.

The bottom line is Minnesota is a mess. They are very poorly coached and prepared and have a QB carousel with little leadership.  Multiple injuries and clear chemistry issues. Bet them at your own peril, but I won’t be supporting the poor purple.  After further review, we’ll roll with the Redskins and note six of the eight Vikings games have had at least 50 points scored while the Redskins games have had at least 50 points scored in five games and 47 or more in seven of eight contests.

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