FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection November 23

FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection November 23 & Game Analysis of Indiana at Ohio State

Line:  Ohio State -35 I Total:  82

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The Ohio State Buckeye’s ( 10-0  SU, 7-3 ATS ) continue their undefeated season Saturday when they host the Indiana Hoosiers ( 4-6 SU, 4-6 ATS ) on November 23, 2013.  Over 100,000 fans will fill the Horseshoe at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio.  Kickoff is scheduled for 3:30 ET and ABC will carry the TV coverage in an expected shootout with both teams having set school records in touchdowns scored this season with Ohio State 67 and Indiana 52.

Ohio State is shooting for back-to-back undefeated seasons and under head coach Urban Meyer the Buckeye’s have won 22-straight games. At #3 in the BCS poll in late November, you can be sure you’re laying a inflated price. Even so, the money keeps pouring in on the Buckeye’s as apparently no number is too high since the Buckeye’s are 11-2 ATS the past 5 seasons laying 22 or more points and 10-4 ATS in Big Ten play under head coach Meyer.  Still, we’ll make the contrary call in support of Indiana in a expected shootout.

Ohio State has been running up style points in recent weeks blowing out Illinois, Purdue and Penn State by the scores of 60-35, 56-0 and 63-14.  While Indiana’s defense is dreadful, the Hoosiers offense offers hope against the huge betting line.  Indiana leads the Big Ten in passing at 270 ypg in league play and the Hoosiers are #3 in total offense averaging 463 ypg. The Hoosiers had scored at least 28 points in a program-record 10 consecutive games before last week’s 51-3 whipping by Wisconsin; an annual bloodbath the past four years.

Ohio State is #1 on offense averaging 542 ypg including 315 rushing ypg to rank #4 in the nation.  Running back Carlos Hyde leads the Big Ten in rushing.  But the Buckeyes defense is susceptible to the pass, as they allow 250 passing ypg; #10 in the Big Ten. While Indiana’s defense is dead last allowing 582 ypg in league play, they will bring a better effort on both sides of the ball this week against the Big Ten’s best Buckeye’s. Consider last season in which Indiana also had a porous defense that allowed over 460 ypg and the Hoosiers battled to the end in piling up nearly 500 yards offense in a 52-49 loss as 19-point ‘Dog.

Can’t say that motivation will be too strong for Ohio State, as they are entrenched in the top-4 spots of the BCS poll and have their huge rivalry game with Michigan next week in Ann Arbor.  Well aware Indiana has rival Purdue on deck also. But situational handicapping and letdown spots combined with inflated betting lines sets up solid spots to support underdogs. While Indiana’s defense is dreadful and Ohio State appears likely to pile up points and yards, the Hoosier’s offense is capable of scoring 30 even on the road in Columbus against a top team. While Indiana’s passing stats and profile is strong, they still run the ball for over 180 ypg (leading rusher Tevin Coleman – sprained ankle, check status).

Ohio State’s stat profiles are built against a pretty soft schedule overall. They have played one top-tier opponent and pulled out a 31-24 win over Wisconsin. Indiana’s offense makes them a playable underdog at this price and plenty capable of coming through the back door if necessary.

 

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FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection on Saturday, November 23, 2013