FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection – October 26

FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection & Game Analysis of UCLA at Oregon

Line:  Oregon -23.5 I Total: 71

Follow all the college football games, scores and changing betting lines on the Vegas Sports Zone Live Odds page.

The #2 Oregon Ducks ( 7-0 SU, 6-1 ATS ) continue to roll over opponents and the Ducks host the UCLA Bruins ( 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS) on October 26, 2013 in a key Pac-12 showdown in Eugene, OR. This prime time game on ESPN is scheduled for kickoff at 7:00 ET from Autzen Stadium. Expect one of the biggest NCAA football betting games of the day.

UCLA was undefeated and rolling until they visited Stanford and their stout defense last week. The #9 Bruins left #13 Stanford with their first SU & ATS loss of the season, 24-10. The high-powered, balanced attack of UCLA was averaging 45 ppg and 547 ypg until last week’s loss in which UCLA gained just 266 yards. Now the Bruins must quickly regroup and have their offense ready to deliver their best performance against the Ducks and their 57-point-per-game offense.

The Bruins defense is still allowing just 19 ppg, but like most teams, they have not faced an offense the caliber of Oregon. The Ducks average 57 ppg and also have the Pac-12s #1 scoring defense allowing 17 ppg. Oregon’s up-tempo, spread offense is awesome averaging 643 ypg including 332 rushing ypg. Sophomore QB Marcus Mariota has 19 TD passes and zero interceptions this season. He’s also rushed for nearly 500 yards with 9 TDs and over 10 yards per rush. The combination of explosive offense and dominating defense has Oregon obliterating opponents, and it’s showing in the Ducks continued wins and now 6-1 ATS betting record following last week’s 62-38 win/no cover over Washington State.

But this line is bordering on ridiculous. The linemaker knows he has to set it even higher, as the Ducks keep covering and the public keeps betting them. Also, Oregon fell to #3 in this week’s opening BCS poll, and the Ducks are a team plenty capable of stepping on the gas and not letting up. UCLA’s poor performane last week combined with Oregon’s continued outburst of 62 points only adds to the public perception and power rating difference. But this spread is still too high, and in fact if these teams were playing in week 3 this line would have been closer to 14 points.

UCLA is still a strong, balanced offensive team and a member of my 200 club (see my recent article). Well aware they are shuffling a few players on the offensive line, and that tapers my opinion on the Bruins a bit. So does the return of Ducks RB De’Anthony Thomas this week. Both teams allow opponents to convert just 30% on third down. The Ducks create turnovers and have a +13 turnover margin. UCLA has the best punting average in the Pac-12.Oregon’s last four opponents have been sub-par running the football, but that won’t be the case with UCLA. Tennessee was able to rush for over 170 yards on Oregon’s defense, and we can project the Bruins running the ball throughout the day and trying to control the ball, clock and chains.

I’m not discrediting the Ducks in any way. They are awesome, and the best team in the nation in my opinion. But as the betting line reflects the Ducks dominance, we must swim in with UCLA as a very formidable foe. The Bruins are now 4-1 ATS their last five road games vs. a team with a winning record. Both defenses get less notoriety because of the awesome offenses, but note the under is 4-0 in UCLA’s last four games vs a winning opponent. Bet the Bruins as a top team at a value price.

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FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection for Saturday, Oct. 26