FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection – October 19

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FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection Game Analysis of Indiana at Michigan

Line:  Michigan -9.5 I Total: 68

Last Week in East Lansing, Indiana was introduced to perhaps the best defense in the country at Michigan State.  The Spartans hold opponents to a nation-low 228 ypg and 3.5 yards per play. No team had exceeded 17 points on the Spartans, yet the Hoosiers scored 28 points and had 351 total yards in a 42-28 loss.

Further east in Happy Valley last Saturday, the Michigan Wolverines were on the verge of sadness and disappointment following a 43-40 loss in four overtimes.  After a number of close calls against inferior foes, Michigan finally suffered their first loss. Now returning home off a grinding game, unbeaten letdown against an opponent they have dominated may be forthcoming. Michigan has beaten Indiana 17-straight times, and the Hoosiers have not won at Michigan Stadium since 1967.  The Wolverines are also 18-0 SU at home under 3rd-year head coach Brady Hoke.

But the Hoosier’s confidence and capable play is continually improving, and coach Kevin Wilson has the team believing and performing better as noted by their 44-24 win over Penn State two weeks ago; also snapping a long losing streak against the Nittany Lions. The Hoosiers employ a 2-QB system with dual threat Tre Roberson and Nate Sudfeld, who leads the Big Ten in TD passes and is second in passing yards and total offense. Indiana is averaging a league-best 311 passing ypg and 8.4 yards per pass attempt. Michigan’s pass efficiency defense is #4 in the Big Ten; just ahead of the Hoosiers. Indiana also runs the ball well at 4.7 ypr and 172 ypg; better than the Wolverines.

Michigan is going to score their share on the Hoosiers league-worst yardage defense, as Indiana allows 456 yards per game but a respectable 5.5 yards per play. Their run defense is a concern allowing 216 ypg. However, Indiana’s offense is top-tier averaging over 500 ypg and 42 ppg. The Hoosiers have scored at least 28 points in a school-record seven-straight games. In a likely shootout, the Hoosiers will get their share and have a solid shot to keep closing any gap in scoring.

While we lose a little value from the opening number and reduce our rating, know that the initial support on Indiana seems correct. We’ll fire for the green and take a swing with the Hoosiers, who may have a shot in the fourth quarter to end another long losing streak to a over-rated opponent.

FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection: Indiana Hoosiers

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