FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection Oct 5th

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FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection Game Analysis of Penn State at Indiana

Line: Penn State -3  l   Total 65.5

Early start from Bloomington, Indiana where the Hoosiers play their fifth-straight home games to start the season. Both teams kickoff Big Ten play off a bye.  Penn State (3-1) has beaten Indiana (2-2) 16-straight times since joining the Big Ten. Yet technical handicappers will also note that Penn State is just 1-14 ATS in its first conference game of the season.

Both teams run an up-tempo offense and average nearly 75 plays per game. The test for the Nittany Lions will be how well freshman QB Christian Hackenberg handles his first true road start; and in conference play no-less. Fortunately, the Lions can rely on a ground game than runs for 197 ypg against a Hoosier’s run defense allowing 247 ypg and 5.1 ypr.  That point-of-attack edge directs us to FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection as Penn State has the better running game and defense in this Big Ten battle and is our projected winner barring turnover troubles.

While Indiana is averaging 44 ppg, must note that their defense is deficient allowing 33 ppg and 463 ypg while also losing to their only two quality opponents. Must respect the potent passing attack of Indiana as the Hoosiers average a league-high 348 passing ypg and 9.2 yards per pass play through four non-conference games. Strong-armed sophomore QB Nate Sudfeld has solidified the position and throws to the Big Ten’s best trio of receivers and a top tight end. Along with the emergence of RB Tevin Coleman and you see why the Hoosiers offense is potent and will get their share of points in this expected high-scoring shootout.  But the question becomes can Indiana score enough against the Nittany Lions stop-unit to make up for their defensive deficiencies?  Penn State gives little away, and their discipline on both sides of the ball is evident as coach O’Brien’s Nittany Lions are penalized an average of just 30 ypg this season.

If discipline, defense and point-of-attack play perform as expected for Penn State, the Lions should extend their string of dominance over the Hoosiers.   Penn State has scored 12 TD’s in 15 trips to the red zone, and they should have plenty more chances for success Saturday against the Hoosiers deficient defense.

@FairwayJay

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