Early Season Edge – College Football Bye Weeks

Evaluating Scheduling and Teams with September Bye Weeks

The college football season kicks off this weekend, and the full slate of games begins the following week over Labor Day weekend. I have outlined the college football September bye week schedule along with each team’s pre and post-bye opponents.  In college football, this can be a real benefit to the rested and prepared team, and especially later in the season. When playing at home off a bye, there is a solid situational edge when playing an opponent that is not off a bye.

Plenty of situations and profiles to consider as you evaluate these bye teams, knowing too that in some seasons past, this base situation favoring home teams off a bye has produced better than 65% against the spread (ATS). In conference action, this becomes a stronger sub-set and especially later in the season for a team playing at home.

We’ll review more as the season moves along, but recognize scheduling situations and take note of teams off a bye, and those playing at home that may also have additional motivation that includes significant redemption.

This is another piece to add to your handicapping arsenal, but know that you still must evaluate the match-ups, motivation, injuries, statistical profiles and betting lines before you blindly bet on these rested and ready teams off a bye. The linemaker has made more adjustments in recent seasons to the bye week situation, but there is still good opportunities available when you factor in all the information above.

Bye	Team	Conference	Pre Bye	Post Bye	Last year results & Notes
2-Sep	Stanford	Pac 12	Rice	at USC	Beat USC 27-10 with 302 rush yds
2-Sep	Rice	Conf USA	Stanford	at UTEP	Beat UTEP 44-24
9-Sep	Texas Tech	Big 12	Eastern Wash’ton	Arizona State	Lost at ASU 68-55, most pts ever allowed vs non-conf foe
9-Sep	Air Force	MWC	VMI	at Michigan	Last meeting 2012, AF lost just 31-25
9-Sep	Georgia State	Sun Belt	Tennessee State	at Penn State	First meeting
9-Sep	Coastan Carolina	Sun Belt	Massachusetts	at UAB	First meeting
16-Sep	Arkansas	SEC	TCU	Texas A&M (Arlington)	Ark allowed 366 rush yards in 45-24 defeat to A&M
16-Sep	Michigan State	Big Ten	Western Michigan	Notre Dame	Won at ND 36-28 as 7′-pt ‘Dog
16-Sep	Maryland	Big Ten	Towson	Central Florida (UCF)	Terps won first-ever meeting LY in double OT
16-Sep	Navy	AAC	Tulane	Cincinnati	First meeting in 60 yrs
16-Sep	Hawaii	MWC	at UCLA	at Wyoming	Did not play LY, 4-str losses in Laramie
16-Sep	UNLV	MWC	at Idaho	at Ohio State	First meeting. UNLV has lost 17-str vs ranked foes
16-Sep	Eastern Michigan	MAC	at Rutgers	Ohio	Won at Ohio 27-20 as 7-pt ‘Dog
23-Sep	Mississippi	SEC	at Cal	at Alabama	Lost to ‘Bama 48-43, but outgained Tide 522-492
23-Sep	Wisconsin	Big Ten	at BYU	Northwestern	Beat NW on road 21-7 in tight game
23-Sep	Northwestern	Big Ten	Bowling Green	at Wisconsin	Visitor has lost 8 of L10; 3 straight low-scoring
23-Sep	Minnesota	Big Ten	MTSU	Maryland	Won at Maryland 31-10 as 6′-pt ‘Dog
23-Sep	Illinois	Big Ten	at USF	Nebraska	Lost at Neb 31-16, upset Huskers in 2015 at home
23-Sep	Oregon State	Pac 12	at Wash’ton St	Washington	Lost to Wash 41-17, trailed HT 31-0
23-Sep	Texas	Big 12	at USC	at Iowa State	Beat ISU 27-6, but lost 24-0 at ISU in 2015
23-Sep	Kansas State	Big 12	at Vanderbilt	Baylor	Won at Baylor 42-21 as slight ‘Dog
23-Sep	Iowa State	Big 12	at Akron	Texas (Thurs)	Lost to TEX 27-6
23-Sep	BYU	Independent	Wisconsin	at Utah State (Fri)	Beat USU 28-10; allowed just 200 yds
23-Sep	Connecticut	AAC	at Virginia	at SMU	Did not play, UCONN is 3-13 L16 AAC road
23-Sep	East Carolina	AAC	Virginia Tech	USF	Lost at USF 38-22
23-Sep	Colorado State	MWC	at Alabama	at Hawaii	Did not play LY
23-Sep	Fresno State	MWC	at Washington	Nevada	Lost 27-22 at Nevada, missed 4th & goal late
23-Sep	No. Illinois	MAC	at Nebraska	at San Diego State	Lost to SDSU 42-28
23-Sep	Marshall	Conf USA	Kent State	at Cincinnati	First meeting since 2008
23-Sep	Southern Miss	Conf USA	at ULM	North Texas	Lost at NT 29-23 as TD fav
30-Sep	Missouri	SEC	Auburn	at Kentucky	Lost to KY as 6-pt favorite, 35-21
30-Sep	Michigan	Big Ten	at Purdue	Michigan State	#2 Michigan was 25-pt road fav & won 32-23
30-Sep	Purdue	Big Ten	Michigan (HC)	Minnesota	Boilers have lost 4-straight to MN
30-Sep	Utah	Pac 12	at Arizona	Stanford (HC)	Did not play L2 yrs, Utes have won 3-straight
30-Sep	Arizona	Pac 12	Utah	at Colorado	Lost to COL 49-24, 0-4 vs ranked teams LY
30-Sep	Oklahoma	Big 12	at Baylor	Iowa State	Won 34-24 as 21-pt favorite
30-Sep	TCU	Big 12	at Oklahoma St	West Virginia	Lost at WV 34-10
30-Sep	West Virginia	Big 12	at Kansas	at TCU	Beat TCU 34-10
30-Sep	Kansas	Big 12	West Virginia	Texas Tech (HC)	Lost at TT 55-19 allowed 548 pass yards
30-Sep	Virginia	ACC	at Boise State	Duke	Beat Duke 34-20 as small ‘Dog w/5 INTs
30-Sep	Tulane	AAC	Army	Tulsa	Allowed season high 566 yds in 50-27 loss at Tulsa
30-Sep	Boise State	MWC	Virginia	at BYU (Fri)	Beat BYU 28-27 w/571-322 yd edge. Visitor 6-str loss
30-Sep	Toledo	MAC	at Miami, FL	Eastern Michigan (HC)	Beat EMU 35-10, & 10-str wins vs EMU
30-Sep	Western Kentucky	Conf USA	Ball State	at UTEP	First trip to Sun Bow. 2nd-ever meeting
30-Sep	Old Dominion	Conf USA	at Virginia Tech	Florida Atlantic	Won at FAU 42-24 with season-high 623 yds
30-Sep	UTSA	Conf USA	at Texas State	Southern Miss	Won 55-32 as 16-pt home ‘Dog
30-Sep	UAB	Conf USA	at North Texas	Louisiana Tech (HC)	UAB 0-5 vs LT including 40-24 loss LY
30-Sep	Appalachian State	Sun Belt	Wake Forest	New Mexico State (HC)	First mtg LY, beat NM St 37-7 w/384 rush yds
30-Sep	Arkansas State	Sun Belt	at SMU	at Georgia Southern (W)	1st trip to Statesboro. Beat GS 27-26 LY as +8
30-Sep	Louisiana	Sun Belt	ULM	at Idaho	Lost 23-13 as 4′-pt fav
30-Sep	Idaho	Sun Belt	at South Alabama	Louisiana	Beat Louisiana as 4′-pt Dog

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