Derby Dreams – Fastest Closing Speeds in Final Kentucky Derby Prep   

Tracking Closing Speeds of Derby Horses in Final Prep

There are many angles and factors used when handicapping the Kentucky Derby, but identifying closing speed is a proven profile when picking a potential Derby winner. The Derby prep schedule is completed, and the final races were the biggest Derby points races in the Championship Series with the winners receiving 100 points and the runner-up 40 points to secure their spots in the starting gate for the 144^th running of the 2018 Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs.

Bet the Kentucky Derby at leading online sports books.

Here were the winners and 2^nd place finishers of the 100 point races:

Louisiana Derby – 1^st Noble Indy, 2^nd Lone Sailor

UAE Derby – 1^st Mendelssohn, 2nd Rayya

Florida Derby – 1^st Audible, 2nd Hofburg

Wood Memorial – 1^st Vino Rosso, 2nd Enticed

Blue Grass – 1^st Good Magic, 2nd Flameway

Santa Anita Derby – 1^st Justify, 2^nd Bold d’ Oro

Arkansas Derby – 1^st Magnum Moon, 2^nd Quip

In the last 12 years since 2006, the winner of the Kentucky Derby won their final Derby prep race 9 times and was runner-up twice.

Year	Winner	Final Prep Race	Finish
2017	Always Dreaming	Florida Derby	1st
2016	Nyquist	Florida Derby	1st
2015	American Pharoah	Arkansas Derby	1st
2014	California Chrome	Santa Anita Derby	1st
2013	Orb	Florida Derby	1st
2012	I’ll Have Another	Santa Anita Derby	1st
2011	Animal Kingdom	Spiral Stakes	1st
2010	Super Saver	Arkansas Derby	2nd
2009	Mine That Bird	Sunland Derby	4th
2008	Big Brown	Florida Derby	1st
2007	Street Sense	Blue Grass	2nd
2006	Barbaro	Florida Derby	1st

Determining which horses can run best and get the 1 ¼ mile distance (10 furlongs) for the first time is part of the process, pedigree profile and projection of the race. So digging deeper into final closing time speeds can assist you in identifying horse that may have the ability to close in the stretch or show enough speed to combine with the necessary stamina to get the distance.

The 20 horse field in the Kentucky Derby can present many challenges and we’ve seen many horses suffer troubled trips before being able to make their run down the long stretch at Churchill Downs. So the racing luck factor is always in play, but these final 3/8 mile speed figures below can also help you eliminate horses from consideration to not only win, but perhaps remove from your exacta, trifecta and superfecta wagering. Likewise, the speed data from races and final 3/8 and 1/8 mile closing times combined with other factors like pedigree, current form, track experience or past race competition may also assist you in including longer shots into your wagers.

Last year we identified the winner Always Dreaming well in advance of the race before he ultimately went off as the slight favorite. But even at 9-2 odds, Always Dreaming paid $11.40 to win. However, it was our ability to identify long shots that had us cash in on the exacta multiply times, hitting the $1 exacta for $168 with Always Dreaming on top of 11 others ($11 ticket). The runner up was Lookin at Lee (33-1), who finished 5 lengths clear of 3^rd place finisher Battle of Midway (40-1) to trigger some huge trifecta and superfecta scores. We incredibly just missed the 50 cent trifecta with a $40 ticket, which paid more than $4,000. That’s another story and one of miscommunication, but the point is that the Derby can have some strong payouts, even when the favorites win or get in the money.

We take the strategy of keying 1-3 horses to win, and then adding more horses underneath, rather than boxing 5-7 horses for example. The strategy worked nearly perfect last year with just the winner on top, but the 2018 Kentucky Derby looks like a very competitive and deep field with many talented 3-year-olds.

We’ll likely be trying to beat some of the favorites on top like Justify, but as you see with the speed chart below, you may be able to narrow your choices and eliminate others by playing the percentages.

Horses that are finishing strongly at the end of their prep races are more likely to handle the distance of the Kentucky Derby (1 ¼ miles) than horses that are tiring at the end of their prep races. Each of the last six Kentucky Derby winners – and 16 of the last 21 – ran the last three-eighths of a mile in their final Derby prep race in less than 38 seconds.

Data in chart below from Trakus, advanced race-timing technology. However, estimates used from Oaklawn (Arkansas Derby) and Fair Grounds (Louisiana Derby), as Trakus is not installed at those tracks.

Horse	Finish Position & Race	Final 3/8 Time	Beyer (BSF)
Combatant	4th Arkansas Derby	:36.30	91x
Magnum Moon	1st Arkansas Derby	:36.47	98
Solomini	3rd Arkansas Derby	:36.80	92
Justify	1st Santa Anita Derby	:37.11	107
My Boy Jack	3rd Louisiana Derby	:37.14	90 (Lexington)
Quip	2nd Arkansas Derby	:37.16	92
Bolt d’ Oro	2nd Santa Anita Derby	:37.40	102
Audible	1st Florida Derby	:37.51	99
Mendelssohn	1st UAE Derby	:37.59	106
Vino Rosso	1st Wood Memorial	:37.66	98
Hofburg	2nd Florida Derby	:37.80	94
Lone Sailor	2nd Louisiana Derby	:38.19	95
Good Magic	1st Blue Grass	:38.27	95
Enticed	2nd Wood Memorial	:38.30	93
Flameaway	2nd Blue Grass	:38.62	93
Noble Indy	1st Louisiana Derby	:38.81	95
Firenze Fire	4th Wood Memorial	:39.36	81
Bravazo	8th Louisiana Derby	:41.85	64
Promises Fulfilled	9th Florida Derby	:43.78	47
Gronkowski	1st Burradon	N/A	N/A

However, understanding track bias and which surfaces were really favoring speed horses (like Oaklawn Park for the Arkansas Derby), will also assist you in determining whether the speed figures are a true barometer for accuracy in comparing to other races and horses. This racing flow figures chart may help you better understand these comparisons. Also, when using final fractions, you must also consider the early pace of a race. For example, the Arkansas Derby was slow early and fast late, and the three fastest final 3/8 mile times were by horses that ran in the Arkansas Derby, including the fastest by Combatant (36.30 seconds), who is not yet in the Derby field of 20 and sits on the ‘bubble’ in the Derby points standings hoping to get in if another horse gets injured, sick or is scratched.

If pace makes the race, the 2018 Kentucky Derby projects to be fast on the front end. If you’re using Beyer Speed Figures (BSF), the statistic and speed numbers which Andrew Beyer developed 26 years ago, know that 24 of the last 26 Kentucky Derby winners posted at least a 95 BSF in their final Derby prep race.

Here is the list of Kentucky Derby contenders that meet the 95 Beyer Speed Figure criteria:

• Justify                     *  Vino Rosso
• Magnum Moon     *  Enticed
• Good Magic           *  Noble Indy
• Mendelssohn        *  Lone Sailor
• Bolt d’ Oro             *  Promises Fulfilled
• Audible

Whoever you bet or support in your Derby Dreams, enjoy ‘the most exciting two minutes in sports’ and the Run for the Roses, and don’t get caught up in the ‘Gronk’ hype unless you want to fumble on your way to the finish line and tear up your tickets. You can bet on it.

Article posted at osga.com.