College Football Week 4 Underdog Picks and Plays

College Football Betting Analysis and Insight with Parlays for Profit

Throughout the college football season, we’ll post a 4-team Money Line parlay for $20 and list the potential payout. These four teams will all be Underdogs to win outright. We’ll call it Fairway’s Football Forecast – so join Fairway’s Foursome as we take a Shot with Big Bertha for a big Birdie score.

Risk vs. reward and searching for value is something bettors should shoot for in their pursuit of profit. Competitively-priced underdogs are always worth examining, as many of these barking ‘Dogs can not only have your wager secured in the later stages of a football game, but some will also have a solid shot to win outright.

Thus, money line wagers should also be part of your betting portfolio when you bet on more competitively-priced underdogs, as the payoffs at the sports books can be very rewarding.

For the next three weeks, there will be some significant line adjustments based on results and adjusted power ratings. As is annually the case during this stretch of the season, the over-reaction to some team’s performances, both good and bad, often sets up line value. Many bettors will have a tougher time supporting ‘bad’ or poor performing teams early in the season. But it’s up to you to have the Balls to play value and not fall for the bait that is often an inflated line against a poor performing team.

Check out the current lines, odds and scores from Las Vegas sports books.

That said, college football is often a momentum sport, so the trick is the find the treat for those teams that can bounce back from poor performances, and other ‘Dogs playing well but not getting enough credit in the marketplace or playing a team that is not as good as their current play has shown. We do play favorites, and are willing to ride a hot hand. But for this exercise and College Football Challenge, we’re looking to isolate underdogs that can bite and deliver the Green.

Last week we went 3-1 ATS and those three underdogs all won outright as a TD ‘Dog or more – Kentucky, Purdue and San Diego State. We’re now 6-2 ATS with the Fairway Football Forecast underdog plays this season, and all six won outright. Let’s see if we can continue the strong early season run into week 4 as we fire for the Flag and go for the Green in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.

Here’s a recap of some underdogs of note that won outright last week. We’ll keep to FBS games and opponents only.

Kentucky (+6) at So. Carolina – Wildcats won 23-13
Purdue (+7) at Missouri – Boilermakers won 35-3
San Diego State (+9) vs Stanford – Aztecs won 20-17
Memphis (+3.5) vs UCLA – Tigers won 48-45
Cincinnati (+3.5) at Miami, Ohio – Bearcats stunned Redhawks 21-17
Northern Illinois (+10.5) at Nebraska – Huskies won 21-17
Louisiana Tech (+6) at Western Kentucky – Bulldogs won at the gun 23-22
Mississippi State (+8.5) vs LSU – Bulldogs buried LSU 37-7
Vanderbilt (+4) vs Kansas State – Commodore’s won 14-7
Cal (+7) vs Ole Miss – Bears won 27-16

This week’s underdog plays – Shop lines at the leading offshore sports books.

310 Appalachian State (+5) vs Wake Forest – Mountaineers Money Line +170
312 North Carolina (+2.5) vs Duke                 – Tar Heels Money Line +115
332 Kentucky (+2/2.5) vs Florida                    – Wildcats Money Line +105
385 Ball State (+8) vs Western Kentucky      – Cardinals Money Line +250

$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $813
$20 4-Team Parlay = $220

$200 – Suggested side wagers with $40 Money Line are suggestions for this sample. $1,000 in play each week.

Wake Forest at Appalachian State – Top of the Saturday rotation finds Wake Forest (3-0) unbeaten and surging on offense scoring 51, 34 and 46 points in three victories all by at least three touchdowns. The Deacons are covering the spread by a wide margin, and now the linemaker has taken note. Fourth year coach Clawson has paid his dues building back the Wake Forest followers following a 6-18 SU record his first two years in Winston-Salem. A bowl bid followed last year, and the Deacons offense is now the most productive during his tenure. Appalachian State, however, is their toughest opponent to date with Wake looking dead ahead to top ACC foes Florida State and Clemson next. Recall, this is a Wake Forest team that scored 12, 13 and 14 points to close last year’s regular season with three losses. Senior QB John Wolford is managing the games better without an INT after tossing 14 last year. And Wake is running the ball 55 times per game; among the most in the nation. But they won’t run rough shed on this App State team, who opened the season with a 31-10 loss at Georgia (368 yards) with penalties proving problematic. Now 2-1 after rolling an FCS foe before laying in the weeds in last week’s 20-13 road win at Texas State, the Mountaineers are 0-3 ATS. But know Appalachian State won 21 games the past two seasons and is expected to steam through the Sun Belt this season. The ‘Belts best team will be very motivated to take down an ACC opponent and neighbor 85 miles to the East. And while the offensive numbers and production is lacking so far for App State, know the emotion will be at its peak for the boys from Boone in a game far more meaningful to little brother. Combined with a line that would have been pick ’em to start the season, we take the value and support the Sun Belt’s best with Pinnacle, 5 Dimes and Wynn Las Vegas showing a line of +5 for the motivated Mountaineers.

Duke at North Carolina – We road Duke to a ‘Dog win two weeks ago on these pages in a whipping of the Northwestern Wildcats 41-17. The Blue Devils are off to a 3-0 start under top-coach Cutcliffe following last week’s beating of Baylor 34-20. Duke has a +4 turnover margin this season and lots to like about their pound-the-ground game averaging more than 50 rushes per game and over 260 rushing YPG. Now the Devils travel up the Tobacco Road for their ACC opener looking to maintain possession of the Victory Bell. The Tar Heels are 1-2 after taking out their frustrations on Old Dominion last week 53-23. North Carolina pounded the ground for 253 yards, and know the Tar Heels have this game circled after outrushing Duke last year 227-106 in a 28-27 loss as a double-digit favorite. Freshman QB Chazz Surratt is settling in for NC, and has thrown 4 TDs without an interception while also facing Cal and Louisville to open the season. North Carolina won 7 games last year before losing their bowl game, and the Tar Heels would have been favored by a touchdown over Duke had they played opening week. So value shows on the home side, who has the better special teams, and coming off their first SU/ATS win sets NC up in a very strong 18-3 ATS situation as a losing team.

Florida at Kentucky – Kentucky obeyed my command last week in ‘Dog-delivering Wildcat win at South Carolina, 23-13. The upstart Wildcats are now 3-0 and play three-straight at home starting with Florida. A 45-7 Gator chomp over the Wildcats early last season should have the Wildcats ready for redemption. Kentucky has shown a modest but balanced offensive attack this season with a much improved defense allowing less than 18 points in all three contests. Florida’s offense continues to struggle, and while the Gators have played two superior teams in Michigan and Tennessee, they failed to score an offensive touchdown for seven quarters. That’s until breaking through late last week against Tennessee, and then delivering the miracle last second touchdown to stun the Volunteers. Can Florida overcome the euphoria of last week’s miracle 63-yard Hail Mary TD on the game’s final play? Florida’s win streak of 30-straight wins in Lexington could be snapped.

Ball State at Western Kentucky – Ball State has won two-straight following their opening week closing minutes loss at Illinois 24-21. In that game, the Cardinals completely outplayed the Illini, outgaining the Big Ten boys 375-216 with a 171-71 rushing advantage and controlling the clock and ball for over 36 minutes. That’s the type of profile we like as a good-sized ‘Dog when lined up against an inexperienced-coached, under-achieving, evenly matched team off a heartbreaking last-season loss. Ball State has a veteran QB and improved defense from their late-season slide a year ago to more than tackle this Western Kentucky team that is 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS. The Hilltoppers also lost to that same Illinois team the following week on the road 20-7 as a 6-point favorite, gaining just 244 yards with SIX (6) rushing yards! Last week, we did some late-week research to find another ‘Dog and cashed in a big play on Louisiana Tech (+6), who kicked a last-second 21-yard field goal to beat WKY 23-22. How do you think the Hilltoppers are feeling following that Conference USA loss? Big letdown in order against this MAC foe, knowing too that the Hilltoppers don’t have the offensive firepower (15 PPG) to be laying this lumber in a bad emotional and scheduling spot. With former head coach Brohm now leading Purdue’s resurgence, and the young, learning Mike Sanford, Jr. going through growing pains in his first head coaching job, we take another value ‘Dog with a spread that would have been close to pick ’em at the start of the season.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit and may all your ‘Dogs deliver the Green.

Check out the leading online sportsbooks,  including those with reduced juice, and this article posted at osga.com.