College Football Week 12 Underdog Picks and Predictions

Identifying College Football Underdogs and Parlays for Profit – College Football Week 12

November continues with more rivalry games and the biggest rivalry weekend follows Thanksgiving week. We’ve been getting the stuffing knocked out of us the past month, and suffered our second straight 1-2-1 week on these pages. I’d like to think we deserved better, but we’ll do the handicapping and put out the plays and let the chips fall where they may. Still, the Ole Miss (+13) loss last week 38-24 at Texas A&M was one of the worst ATS losses of the season. A very unfortunate result, as Ole Miss had many chances to win the game, but fumbles in the red zone, missed a chip shot field goal late to tie, and then two late A&M touchdowns including a 46-yards run very late following an Ole Miss onside kick when the Aggies were ready to run out the clock made it a difficult defeat for Ole Miss and a most miserable ATS result for Rebels bettors and backers. We’re now 18-21 ATS on these pages selecting underdogs with 9 outright underdog winners this season.

Hopefully the combination of our search for value, statistical indicators and use of our strong, balanced offenses, defensive dominators and situational and motivational factors will point us towards more winners and profit as we close out the regular season.

Some more noteworthy upsets last week including Northwestern, Wake Forest and UNLV pulling double-digit upsets on the road and the same for Minnesota and Old Dominion at home.

Temple (+3.5) at Houston  – Owls won 59-49
Wake Forest (+18.5) at NC State – Demon Deacons won 27-23
Tennessee (+5) vs Kentucky –  Volunteers won 24-7
Northwestern (+10.5) at Iowa – Wildcats won 14-10
Old Dominion (+15.5) vs North Texas – Monarchs won 34-31
Minnesota (+12) vs Purdue – Golden Gophers won 41-10
Cal (+5) at USC – Golden Bears won 15-14
UNLV (+24) at San Diego State – Rebels won 27-23

Let’s continue to fire for the green in Fairway’s Foursome in our weekly pursuit of profit (doggy style) with Fairway’s Football Forecast.

Shop and bet College Football at the leading online sportsbooks, including the Week 11 lines.

330 Minnesota (+1) vs Northwestern – Golden Gophers Money Line +100
367 Syracuse (+10.5) vs Notre Dame – Orange Money Money Line +325
397 Mississippi (+3) at Vanderbilt – Rebels Money Line +130
416 Nebraska (+2) vs Michigan State – Cornhuskers Money Line +110

$20 4-Team Parlay = $220
$20 4-Team Money Line Parlay = $801

Northwestern at Minnesota – Man, does Northwestern (6-4) get little respect. After winning it’s 12th Big Ten game in its last 13 conference contests last week at Iowa to clinch the Big Ten West, Northwestern is now just a 1-point favorite at Minnesota with the line crashing down. The Wildcats have won lots of money for their betting backers too going 11-1-1 ATS in those Big Ten battles back to last year and are 6-1 SU/ATS in conference play this year. Hard to believe with a rushing attack that is one of the worst in the country at 102 yards per game. But we’ll still bite here on my alma mater despite the best number lost and the power rating not matching. Situational play, and the bookmaker is on top of it as well with the Gophers this week, as Northwestern had a huge win at Iowa last week to win the Big Ten West and secure their spot in the Big Ten championship game in two weeks. The Wildcats also have rival bottom feeder Illinois next week to close the regular season at home. Much more motivation foe Minnesota (5-5), who needs one more win to become bowl eligible and a loss is more likely next week at Wisconsin. With a new defensive coordinator last week, the Gophers shut down the potent Purdue passing attack and played their best game of the season on both sides of the ball in a 41-10 pounding of Purdue as a 12-point home underdog. No need to travel, and Minnesota’s very young roster got a big boost of confidence and we hope it’s not too much to ask a sub-par team to bring their best against and beat far less interested Northwestern.

Syracuse vs Notre Dame – This game is at a neutral site at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. Syracuse (8-2) is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this year and we cashed in easy with the Orange in their near upset at No. 2 Clemson 27-23 as a 25-point ‘Dog. In the five games the Orange have played since losing at Clemson, they’ve scored no fewer than 37 points in a game while going 4-1 and are up to No. 7 in the nation in scoring at 44 points per game. The Irish defense is top-tier ranking top-10 in total defense and have not allowed a team to score more than 30 points. But this will still be a very tough challenge for Notre Dame (10-1) as the pressure mounts towards a CFB playoff push and now facing its strongest offense to date in Syracuse. Ian Book returns at quarterback for Notre Dame after missing last week’s win over Florida State, and the Irish offense has been better with him completing 74% of his passes at 8.9 yards per pass. Still, we like the Orange and it’s offense to make more plays and keep this one close.

Ole Miss at Vanderbilt – We come back with Ole Miss (5-5) despite the brutal beat and unfortunate ATS loss last week. The Rebels need one more victory to earn a bowl bid while Vanderbilt (4-6) has to win out after suffering a disappointing defeat themselves last week. The Commodores led Missouri 28-16 late in the third quarter and failed to punch in a touchdown from the 1-yard line in the fourth quarter in a 33-28 defeat. Which teams will bounce back? Ole Miss has the superior offense and explosive passing attack along with a positive and better yards-per-play differential than Vanderbilt. Like last week, we like to play some capable underdogs in those positive stat profile situations and it’s been a solid ATS winner since October. While the Rebels defense is a concern statistically, they played better than the score suggests last week and Vanderbilt has shown signs of wearing down allowing 213 rushing yards per game this season but 246 rushing YPG over its last three contests. Vanderbilt has just one win in its last five games and that was against last place Arkansas. The ‘Dog delivers this week.

Michigan State at Nebraska – Don’t be fooled by the records here, as Nebraska (3-7) is going to win this game over Michigan State (6-4), even if the Cornhuskers best wins of the season are over Minnesota and last week Illinois. Michigan State’s quarterback situation is uncertain, and coach Mark Dantonio won’t announced the starter until game day. Brian Lewerke started again last week despite an injured shoulder and admitting pain. He passed the ball poorly, and was replaced by Rocky Lombard, who fared no better and also threw two interceptions. Lewerke is just 27 of 73 for 291 yards, no touchdowns and two interceptions in the three games he has played while battling the shoulder issue. Clearly Dantonio doesn’t have enough confidence that Lombard will lead the team effectively or he would be playing instead of an injured quarterback. The quarterback situation doesn’t look good for Saturday. Just the opposite for Nebraska, who started turning things around in late September despite no victories and an 0-6 start under 1st year Cornhuskers head coach and former player Scott Frost. After giving away the game at Northwestern and losing in overtime 34-31 while out-rushing the Wildcats 231-32, Nebraska has continued to score with 53, 35, 31 and 54 points while winning three of its last four games. The only loss was at Ohio State 36-31 in a near even-yardage game as a big ‘Dog two weeks ago. Ohio State then went to East Lansing and beat Michigan State last week 26-6, turning turnovers into touchdowns in the fourth quarter to break open a tight game. Still, the Spartans only had 274 yards and are struggling to run the ball and both quarterbacks played poorly.

Fatigue may have set in more last week and it’s No. 1 rush defense will really be tested in Lincoln this week as the Cornhuskers also pick up the pace and spread Sparty out. That’s the type of offense that has caused MSU some issues this season, as Utah State scored 31 points and nearly beat MSU in East Lansing and Northwestern did pull off the road upset 29-19. Under coach Frost, freshman QB Adrian Martinez has really blossomed in the no-huddle spread-option attack, and it started late September with back-to-back 320+ yard passing games. His ability to run and extend plays presents big problems for defenses and Michigan State is going to find that out this week. Even in defeat on the road at Ohio State, Martinez passed for 266 yards without a turnover and rushed 20 times for 72 yards and 2 touchdowns. Nebraska’s offensive attack has blossomed and become a strong, balanced offense averaging 226 rushing yards per game at 5.5 YPR and 257 passing YPG with Martinez completing 67% of his passes at 8.1 yards per pass. Yes, he’ll face a stronger Spartans defense this week, but watch Martinez and the offense add more stats and scores as Michigan State allows its highest scoring output of the season to Nebraska in a big red romp.

Best wishes as with your Week 12 picks in pursuit of profit.

Article posted at osga.com.