College Football Week 11 Top 25 Preview And Picks

Five Top 25 matchups headline the college football Week 11 schedule, which I initially post at OSGA. Some other matchups involve Top 25 teams against conference opponents looking to move up into the rankings including Duke at No. 5 Miami. The new No. 1 is Georgia, who tackles No. 22 Missouri this week. Another key SEC matchup is No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU, who fell out of the CFP picture losing at home to Alabama last week. No. 25 Oklahoma State is a -3.5 point favorite at home against No. 12 Texas Tech, who escaped with a wild win over big ‘Dog West Virginia 53-48 – a side and totals winner for us in Week 10.

Seven teams are still mathematically alive to reach the Big 12 championship game with three games left. Utah (6-0) and Texas Tech (5-1) lead five other teams at 4-2 in conference play including BYU. Those three teams play three other 4-2 teams this Saturday including the dandy in the desert with No. 2 Utah at No. 23 Arizona. Check out our early picks and opinions with Big 12 teams and games getting our watch and wager interest.

The Big Ten has has eight teams at 4-2 or better in conference play into college football Week 11 action. Surprising No. 4 UCLA (6-0) and Indiana (5-1) currently lead the league and key games for the Bruins at home Friday vs. Illinois (4-2) and No. 9 Indiana hosting No. 18 USC (4-2), who both dropped in the rankings following a bye last week.

The SEC has five teams 4-2 or better led by Georgia (6-1), who holds the tiebreaker over Alabama (5-2). Kentucky (5-2) is off a one-sided loss last week at Tennessee (4-2). Texas (4-2) remains in the SEC hunt with the toughest schedule, and all five teams are 7-2 or better chasing a spot in the College Football Playoff.

The ACC title game will be determined between four teams – Miami (6-0), Wake Forest (5-1), Louisville (4-2) and SMU (4-2). Duke and Clemson are 4-3 in ACC play, and they play next Friday night in Week 12 after Duke gets defeated this Saturday at Miami with the Hurricanes off their first loss of the season last Saturday at Notre Dame. Wake Forest at SMU is the biggest college football Week 11 game in the ACC, and the Mustangs need the win to have a shot at making the ACC Championship Game.

Another winning week in our Top 25 report going 6-2 ATS on all picks and opinions in Week 10, and better than 60% ATS this season on more than 100 posted plays at Off Shore Gaming Association. That includes 69% ATS since Week 4 when we ramped up the selections averaging more than 8 picks and opinions per week so you can profit from the experience.

NCAA Football Top 25 Games and Week 11 Odds

Betting lines and college football odds from leading online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Point spread on favorites plus game totals. Check out the college football Week 11 opening lines Sunday from Las Vegas. All times ET.

Fri, Nov. 13

– Illinois at No. 4 UCLA (-10), 47.5 | 9 pm | FOX
– No. 14 Houston (-10) at Colorado, 51 | 10:15 pm | ESPN

Sat, Nov. 14

– No. 22 Missouri at No. 1 Georgia (-16), 47 | 3:30 pm | ABC
– No. 2 Utah (-3) at No. 23 Arizona, 54.5 | 7:30 pm | FOX
– No. 3 Alabama (-16.5) at Vanderbilt, 49.5 | 12:45 p.m. | SECN
– Boston College No. 5 Notre Dame (-29.5), | 3:30 pm | NBC
– No. 6 Texas at No. 21 LSU (-4), 46 | 7:30 pm | ABC
– Duke at No. 7 Miami (-13.5), 53.5 | 12 pm | ABC
– No. 8 Tennessee (-2.5) at Texas A&M, 43 | 3 pm | ESPN
– No. 18 USC at No. 9 Indiana (-7.5), 50.5 | 3:30 pm | CBS
– Baylor at No. 10 BYU (-7.5), 49.5 | 3:30 pm | FOX
– Florida at No. 11 Kentucky (-3.5), 53 | 6:15 pm | ESPN
– No. 12 Texas Tech at No. 25 Oklahoma State (-3.5), 73.5 | 9:30 pm | ESPN
– No. 13 Wake Forest at SMU (-1), 61 | 12 pm | ESPN
– Purdue at No. 15 Iowa (-17.5), 47.5 | 7:30 pm | NBC
– Michigan at No. 16 Oregon (-11), 38 | 3:30 pm | FS1
– No. 17 South Carolina (-7.5) at Arkansas, 51.5 | 7:45 pm | SECN
– No. 19 Ole Miss (-1) at Oklahoma, 47 | 4:15 pm | SECN
– Northwestern at No. 20 Ohio State (-12.5), 46.5 | 12 pm | FOX
– Oregon State at No. 24 Boise State (-13.5), 65 | 6 pm | USA

Teams to watch that could move into the Top 25 with wins this week include SMU, Duke, Illinois and Louisville. Also, these teams could move up as they battle Boise State for the Group of Six spot in the College Football Playoff – New Mexico, North Texas, Memphis, Louisiana Tech and Liberty.

Other Notable College Football Week 11 Games

(teams in bold have 5 wins and need 1 more for bowl eligibility)

– Ohio (-1.5) at Miami Ohio, 47 – Tuesday
– UMASS at Toledo (-14.5), 52 – Wednesday
– Memphis (-4.5) at South Florida, 50.5 – Thursday
– Florida State at Pittsburgh (-3.5), 54 – Friday
– Cincinnati at Iowa State (-3), 59.5
– Auburn (-2.5) at Mississippi State, 50
– James Madison (-4) at UCONN, 58
– Wisconsin (-7.5) at Maryland, 43.5
– Syracuse (-3) at NC State, 53.5
– Georgia Tech at Clemson (-13.5), 47.5
– Nebraska (-13.5) at Rutgers, 52
– Kansas State at TCU (-10), 45
– Georgia Southern (-5.5) at Georgia State, 56.5
– Florida Atlantic at Tulsa (-4.5), 74
– Cal at Virginia (-10), 47.5
– Arizona State at Central Florida (-3.5), 49
– Jacksonville State (-7.5) at Western Kentucky, 52.5
– Fresno State at Texas State (-10), 60.5
– Washington (-3) at Michigan State, 43
– Southern Miss at Louisiana Tech (-17.5), 55
– Kansas at West Virginia (-2.5 / 3), 67
– Appalachian State (-1.5) at Marshall, 54
– Minnesota at Penn State (-9), 42
– Louisville (-3.5) at North Carolina, 60
– San Jose State at Air Force (-12.5), 48
– UNLV at New Mexico (-14), 47.5
– North Texas (-2) at UTSA, 77
– Utah State (-2.5) at San Diego State, 42
– North Dakota State (-6.5) at Hawaii, 38.5

College Football Week 11 stats, winning profiles, projections and picks

Fairways Forecast and all NCAA Football picks and opinions posted at OSGA since Week 4 are 44-20 ATS (69%). For the 2026 season, all CFB posted picks and opinions are 56-36 ATS (61%) producing top payouts at leading online sportsbooks without the hype and tout talk.

Follow updates on X (@FairwayJay) and check back Friday for all picks and opinions, additional analysis and stats with information you can bet on.

College Football Top 25 Picks

– Baylor (+7.5)

NCAA Football Week 11 Opinions

– Oklahoma State (-3 or 3.5)
– Arizona (+3)
– USC (+7.5 to +9.5)

College Football Predictions Outside of the Top 25

– Memphis (-3.5) – Pick
– West Virginia (-2.5)

All stats are vs. FBS opponents only.

Duke at Miami – Perhaps the strangest note about this matchup is that Miami has never won an ACC championship (since 2004), and Duke has during that same time frame, winning the ACC last season. The Blue Devils (7-2/4-2 ACC) remain alive to make the title game again if they beat Miami (8-1/6-0). Duke enters off a pair of wins by a combined score of 88-5, and join Wake Forest as the best money-makers in the ACC at 7-2 against the spread (ATS). Duke bakes their bread with the Power 4’s leading rusher Nate Sheppard (1,189 yards, 17 TD’s). But the ‘Canes run defense is No. 1 in the country allowing just 68 yards per game and 2.5 yards per rush. So Duke will try to control the ball and clock, but also attack the ‘Canes through the air as Miami has allowed at least 300 passing yards and 23 points to each of their last four opponents. But teams pass on the Hurricanes because they can’t run against them with any sustained success while also more often playing from behind. Duke’s pass defense is the best in the ACC, and now former Duke QB Darian Mensah will try to add to his ACC-best 2,425 yards and 25 TD passes by finding the seams and completing more passes for the Hurricanes.

Missouri at Georgia – The Bulldogs buried Ole Miss last Saturday 42-7 as 3.5-point favorites to reestablish themselves as the best team and back to No. 1 ranking. Georgia has won 10-straight games against Missouri, and four of the last five scores finished under the total, which is the preferred play. Tigers QB Austin Simmons is likely to struggle more against the ‘Dawgs top-tier defense, and 4-straight losses to end the season for Mizzu would be no surprise including three of them at home.

USC at Indiana – Both teams enter off a bye and the preseason line on this game was Indiana -10, and I bet the Trojans. The Hoosiers defense remains top tier, as does their discipline demanded by coach Curt Cignetti. The Hoosiers are among the least penalized teams in the country. Indiana (8-1) is also  underperforming in the betting market at a nation-worst 1-8 ATS. No team has escaped more with late wins than Indiana. A 20-17 win at Nebraska after trailing 17-6 in the 4th quarter and outgained 392-328 and nearly doubled-up by the ‘Huskers in first downs 25-13. A gift-wrapped game by Michigan with a Hoosiers 13-6 win in overtime and just 212 yards offense including 8/18 passing for 81 yards by QB Hoover. Then last week as a 20-point favorite, Indiana pulled the Houdini act despite outgaining Minnesota by 200 yards but needing overtime again to win 23-16. The Gophers had taken a 16-13 lead with 19 seconds left on a 60-yard field goal only to allow the Hoosiers to complete a 33-yard pass to set up their own 60-yard field goal to send the game to overtime. Between those 20-points or less scored games by the Hoosiers in regulation, Indiana lost at home to Ohio State 19-15. So it was quite a memorable month for Indiana including the spooky trick-turned-treat win on Halloween over Minnesota. A sharp syndicate bet caused what others considered a strange line move Wednesday night with the ‘Dog USC (7-2/4-2 Big Ten) up from +7.5 to +9.5 despite no QB or significant injury news other than Indiana’s leading rusher is out with a shoulder injury. The Hoosiers defense remains elite by stats allowing just 4.1 yards per game, but do have some defenders listed as questionable. USC has played the toughest Big Ten schedule this season. The Trojans are plenty capable of moving the ball and scoring with a quality, most efficient QB in Jayden Maiava leading the Trojans top offense at 424 yards per game and 6.1 yards per play. The question is will the Trojans get some production in the running game, and make enough stops on defense and force some turnovers? USC was good and physical enough in the trenches to win at Penn State in a tough night environment, and also Ohio State at home. But USC went flat at Wisconsin getting shut down and bullied in the running game while holding Wisconsin’s offense to 200 yards.They lost to Oregon, but coach Lincoln Riley and the Trojans got their signature win last game over Ohio State 30-18. The Trojans defense still allowed 204 yards rushing and 260 passing with the Buckeyes playing catchup. Despite Indiana’s strength and especially on defense, I’m not confident they will separate with their sometimes stagnent offense. I trust the Trojans and their offense will be rested and ready to deliver their best shot.

Wake Forest at SMU – Wake Forest (8-1/5-1 ACC) was picked in the bottom tier of the ACC to start the season, and here they are with Coach-of-the-Year candidate Jake Dickert leading the Demon Deacons to a second-straight 9+ win season in his second year. Both SMU (7-2/5-2) and Wake Forest are in position to make the ACC title game against Miami, with the Hurricanes having already defeated the Deacons in September and led Wake Forest 31-7 with Miami’s QB completing 24 straight passes. Wake Forest does not have a win over a ranked team this season, and now face electric playmaker QB Kevin Jennings (2,764 yards, 25 TDs). A win by SMU likely gets them to the ACC championship game with only Stanford left in ACC play after next week’s game at Notre Dame. Both SMU (6.5) and Wake Forest (6.8) are top 12 in the country in yards per play offense. Recall SMU missed out last season when the Mustangs lost at Cal as a 2 TD favorite in the final week. Bettors now favoring SMU as the favorite has flipped and the Mustangs are a recommended first-half bet as well playing with purpose and intensity from the opening kickoff.

Utah at Arizona – The Utes (9-0/6-0 Big 12) remain one of just two teams undefeated (UCLA) after last week’s Holy War rivalry win over BYU. Likely letdown by Utah and more motivation for Arizona (7-2/4-2), who features an elite, efficienct and explosive offense and underrated defense that has held opponents to 58 yards per game below their average. Senior All-Pac 12 QB Noah Fifita leads a 322 yards per game passing offense, which is No. 2 of all Power 4 teams behind fellow Big 12 team Oklahoma State. Utah is more balanced on offense with both teams averaging 446 yards per game and 6.4 yards per play. The Utes have the advantage on defense, but they just gave their best shot against BYU, and recall when BYU shot their wad in beating Notre Dame at home only to go to Central Florida and lose badly the next week as favorite, another winner for us in our Week 8 picks that went 5-0 ATS on Top 25 games. Arizona is 5-0 at home in Tuscon with four one-sided wins and last week’s last minute FG and 29-28 win while outgaining TCU by 160 yards.

Texas at LSU – A night game in Death Valley between these massive money spenders in NIL. Monitor the injury reports and players status for Texas (7-2/4-2 SEC), who was shorthanded badly last week and still won at Missouri as our Week 10 pick. Longhorns QB Arch Manning has been playing better for a Texas team also facing a most difficult schedule and another top-tier defense at LSU (6-3/3-3). Tons of urgency for the Tigers, who lead the country in yards per play margin at +243 and have a better yards per play, yards per game and points per game margin than Texas. A pair of defensive dominators pose a tough test for each teams offenses as Texas is No. 1 holding opponents 153 yards per game below their average and LSU No. 4, holding foes 125 ypg below their average.

Texas Tech at Oklahoma State – Riding the Cowboys again after last week’s blowout win made our Week 10 picks, and this offense is elite led by top QB Drew Mestemaker, the top Power 4 passer with more than 2,900 yards (329/game) and 29 TD passes. Texas Tech was fortunate to win a wild shootout 53-48 last week against West Virginia and the Mountaineers Power 4-worst defense. Tech coach made a switch to duel QB Thomas Castellanos and he delivered with 464 yards total offense and 5 touchdowns. But the Bro still has a penchant for turnovers and sacks with more risk-worth passes in the past. The Red Raiders won’t slow the Cowboys high-powered offense in Stillwater in another big shootout. Oklahoma State has lost a pair of Big 12 games by 3 and 2 points, but could easily have been on a 8-0 SU/ATS run since the opening week shocking loss, but still on a 6-2 SU/7-1 ATS ride with the Power 4’s top scoring offense at 42 points per game. Highest total on the college football card at 73 points, and both teams play fast, top 15 at 23-24 seconds per play.

Baylor at BYU – The Bears (6-3/4-2 Big 12) have been unleashed since firing coach Aranda, scoring 40+ points in a pair of double-digit wins. Quarterback DJ Lagway has also responded as a former top QB recruit, passing for 6 TD’s, 0 INT’s and accounting for more than 340 yards total offense per game over the last two contests. Baylor better stats, performances and confidence to challenge BYU (7-2/4-2), who is off their big rivalry game and loss to Utah. Since starting the season 5-0 SU/ATS, the Cougars are 1-2 SU and 0-3 ATS and the Bears will bring their best again with two other remaining games against Texas Tech and Houston.

Illinois at UCLA – The Bruins (9-0/6-0) are 5-0 SU/ATS at home this season under Coach of the Year favorite Bob Chesney. Their toughest home game was a 17-7 win over Wisconsin, but Illinois (6-3/4-2) brings more offense and a 4-game winning streak to this Friday night fight at the Rose Bowl. The Fighting Illinis lost at Ohio State 42-19 and began their current winning streak with a 38-37 OT win at Michigan State, which is a concern facing the Bruins balanced offense averaging 6.4 yards per play and a top 5 Power 4 running game averaging 213 yards per game. Along with a Bruins defense that allows just 264 ypg and 14.1 points per game (both top 10) plus a staggering +14 turnover margin and nation-leading 27 takeaways and 17 interceptions, its the Bruins who should continue their winning ways that has also included a 9-0 ATS profit-producing mark this season. Bruins or bust.

Group of Six (G6) spotlight this week in Boise with the Broncos (8-1/5-0) tackling Oregon State (5-4/3-2) in Pac-12 play. But it’s Memphis (-3.5) that we’re interested in Thursday night at South Florida with the Tigers (7-2/4-1 AAC) able to make a big push with their balanced and efficicient offense now averaging 214 rushing ypg and 293 passing ypg vs. FBS opponents and 7.0 yards per play is top-5 nationally scoring 36.6 points per game. The Tigers defense has created turnovers and should contain one of the worst passing offenses in the country in South Florida (6-3/2-3), who lost 20-17 last week to East Carolina. The Bulls have scored less than 20 points against three other weak opponents and padded their stats against a weak FCS team and still without an explosive play beyond 50 yards. The Bulls 307 ypg defense meets a superior Tigers offense that has produced nine plays of 50-plus yards (top 10), and rolls to a road win by margin to kickoff college football Week 11.

You can bet on it.