College Football – Situational Handicapping

Oregon State in tough college football situation at San Diego State

I’ve written many articles on college football situational handicapping, including this one on emotion, let down and scheduling situations. Saturday, September 21 another similar situation is likely to play out in San Diego when the Oregon State Beavers (2-1) travel to take on the San Diego State Aztecs (0-2). Those who use power ratings know this line has been adjusted by nearly 10 points based on early season results. Performance, injuries and situations described must all be evaluated when handicapping college football games and match-ups.

The Aztecs are clearly struggling, but a -7 net turnover ratio has added to their poor results. They have been beaten badly by Ohio State and a FCS team. Head coach Rocky Long has to regroup his troupes and they enter off a week of ‘rest’ and preparation (bye).

The Beavers have their own issues; namely their running game and defense.  Utah ran through them with ease for 260 rush yards at 6.7 ypr while racking up 539 total yards. Oregon escaped last week 51-48 in overtime. Now the Beavers are back on the road and traveling from a emotional conference ‘Dog win in altitude and laying 8-points on the road.  Bad situation, and further enhanced by the absence of starting RB Storm Woods this week (concussion).

The Aztecs are ready to regroup off a bye and their top RB Murema returns to the lineup; the best running back the Beavers have faced. JC transfer QB Kaehler makes his first start after 216 passing yards in relief against Ohio State.  Well aware of the San Diego State secondary issues and that Oregon State QB Sean Mannion is having a great season passing for over 400 ypg with great accuracy and decision making.  But despite some matchup issues in the passing game, San Diego State is the side to support in this college football game as the Beavers are in a very bad situational spot.

@FairwayJay