College Football Handicapping-Power Balanced Offenses

Betting on teams that run and pass for at least 200 yards – College Football Handicapping by @FairwayJay

As we make the turn at the halfway point of the college football regular season, we can now utilize some stronger statistical numbers in evaluating teams and match-ups. Most BCS conference teams have now played at least two conferences games to give us realistic projections on their performance vs. similar opponents. No more “false favorites” who padded their numbers vs. a soft non-conference schedule.

I annually research and document offensive and statistical profiles of teams, and usually start posting updates near mid October. One of the indicators I use for offensive strength is not just yards gained or yards per play, but how the teams accumulate those yards.  Addressing opponents and strength of schedule is another factor you must evaluate once you review the numbers and statistical profiles. This week we look at the offensive side of the ball.  One specific area of strength I pay attention to at this time of year are teams which have strong, balanced offenses. As a guideline, I look for teams who both run and pass the ball for over 200 yards-per-game on average. As of October 19, 2013 there are 24 teams that both run and pass for at least 200 yards per game.  Note that there are 38 teams that rush for at least 200 ypg (approx. 30% of all FBS teams) and 52 teams that pass for at least 250 ypg, as teams that run for 200+ and pass for 250+ are your strongest college football offensive teams – there are currently 12 such teams.

The ability to run the football effectively also helps on the defensive side of the ball by keeping a defense fresh. In past seasons I used 200 yards as the “balanced, power” guideline for both running and passing. However, you may recall in 2006 that offensive production was reduced by nearly 10% with the clock rule changes that season. That didn’t last long, and we’re back to more teams running for near 200 ypg while we have more teams actually passing for at least 250 ypg.

Of course, you need to evaluate previous opponents and adjust accordingly based on opponent strength of schedule and the upcoming schedule to feel more confident in your team’s ability to sustain their strength and balance. The power teams can be attractive teams to bet on, especially as an underdog. If our power team has a strong defense to support this high-powered balanced offense then they often become an even stronger play in an underdog role; a situation I’ve used many times in the past.

Good defensive coordinators can take an average defense and slow down another team’s offense if they lack balance. Thus, high-powered passing teams that lack a solid running game are susceptible to an inconsistent performance, especially if their own defense is not up to ‘par’ to hold down an opponent.

Update your numbers weekly and pay attention to on-field performance, especially vs. quality opponents. You’ll be laying a pretty big price with some of these power teams in the weeks ahead, so continue to evaluate on-field performance and dig deep into the injury reports as well. Pay attention to key losses and how a team performs so you can project letdown situations and recognize when a team has a match-up edge. As you become more proficient in evaluating team’s strengths and weaknesses, you’ll find yourself with more tap-in birdies, and build your bankroll by getting the green.

I’ve included some additional solid, balanced offensive teams not listed in the table below. Follow all these teams’ progress in the weeks ahead.  Arkansas State (209 run/274 pass), Mississippi State (214/243) and Western Kentucky (202/270) don’t qualify in scoring over 30 ppg.

Strong, balanced offenses that score at least 30 points per game, run for 200+ ypg and pass for 200+ ypg are listed in the chart below. Note that these are NCAA statistics and rushing yardage and yards-per-rush includes quarterback sack yardage.

Rushing yards, yards per rush (YPR), passing yards, yards per pass attempt (yppa), points per game