College Football Handicapping & Marquee Match-ups– Positive ATS Profiles in Week 2

College Football handicapping – Saturday, September 7 by @FairwayJay

The second week of the college football season is met with cautious optimism, as line moves and adjustments can be significant and (over)reaction sometimes severe. Let’s keep you grounded with some ‘Fairway Fundamentals‘ in the running game and also some situational and technical Against the Spread (ATS) insight.

Teams that run the ball effectively and/or slow down the opponents running game continue to be profitable propositions. Last year with a sample size of over 325 college football games, teams that out-rushed their opponent by at least a 2-1 margin covered the pointspread better than 76% of the time.

Saturday’s Marquee Match-ups. All games on ESPN – Tripleheader on National TV. Line listed is on the home team.

Florida at Miami, FL (+3) – Florida was one of those dominant rushers last week with a 262-50 ground game edge over Toledo. Yet the Gators (-23′) failed to cover in a 24-6 win and their offense remains sub-par for a top caliber team. This week the task is much tougher against the very experienced and skilled Hurricanes. Miami also dominated the line of scrimmage but failed to cover last week in a 34-6 win over Florida Atlantic. The Hurricanes with all 5 returning offensive line starters had a 303-133 rushing advantage over the Owls but could not reward their betting backers (what happened to the dominant rushing game profile)? This week, I assure you the stronger running game gets the green. Technically speaking, Miami coach Al Golden is a remarkable 17-2 ATS as home ‘Dog or small favorite (3 or < pts) in his college coaching career. Add in the ‘Canes 9-2 ATS run the past 2 years under HC Golden and profitable profile is made as the Gators could get ‘Dogged in Miami.

South Carolina at Georgia (-3.5) – Early season SEC showdown between two top SEC East contenders. South Carolina won and covered last week in a 27-10 home win over North Carolina. The dominant rushing profile resulted in cash for the ‘Cock supporters as SC out-rushed NC 228-99 for a 2-1 ground game advantage. The ‘Dawgs have to be lickin’ their wounds following a 38-35 loss at Clemson last week in which a 4th quarter FG failure proved costly. Is it a bounce back week for the Bulldogs against top division rival SC, who they have lost to 3-straight years, or a letdown following an emotional heartbreaking defeat? Georgia‘s top offense will have to keep the nations premier defender out of the backfield, as DE Jadeveon Clowney causes havoc.  Two top coaches (Spurrier, Richt) and teams tangle again.

 Notre Dame at Michigan (-3.5) – A tight recent series with Michigan winning by exactly 4 points three straight years until Notre Dame‘s 13-6 win last year. The ‘Dog has dominated this regional rivalry going 21-4 ATS the last 25 meetings. The underdog has 9 outright wins the past 13 meetings and Michigan has won and covered the last three games vs. Notre Dame at the Big House in Ann Arbor. Both teams feature top-tier defenses, but after last week’s opening games, the Irish’ defense is not as elite as last year’s top unit. Irish QB Tommy Rees is thrown to the ‘Wolves on the road this week with Michigan’s elite secondary last season still a strong unit in 2013. The Wolverine’s balanced attack rolled up 242 yards rushing last week in a 59-9 annihilation of Central Michigan – a dominant rusher ATS winner. Brady Hoke and Brian Kelly have quickly brought these storied programs back to prominence. Does the ‘Dog domination continue in the 41st and final meeting (for at least 5 years)?

@FairwayJay