College Football Handicapping – Opening Week
Friday’s College Football Handicapping opening week match-ups and ATS notes
Western Michigan at Michigan State
Line: MSU -28 Total 44.5
New Western Michigan head coach PJ Fleck is youngest head coach in FBS. Inflated line based on Broncos fall to 4-8 last season and MSU Spartans top-tier defense. Note Michigan State’s offense fell from 31 ppg to just 20 ppg last season, and the Spartans were 0-7 ATS as home favorite last season.
Texas Tech at SMU
Line: TT -5 Total 59.5
June Jones – SMU Head Coach
I had this game isolated some time ago as this is one of the biggest coaching mismatches you’ll see opening week. Veteran mentor June Jones has done a masterful job in his 5 years at SMU; guiding the Mustangs to 4 bowl appearances. In those last four seasons, the Mustangs offense has averaged at least 367 ypg in the Red Gun offense.
Last year they posted 30 ppg with transfer QB Garrett Gilbert, now a senior. June Jones brought in former Houston offensive coordinator Jason Phillips to assist him with the offense and calling plays. This year Jones unites with Air Raid innovator Hall Mumme, who is SMU’s passing game coordinator. The SMU offense will be diverse, high speed and exciting to watch with the nations most intriguing collection of offensive passing minds. SMU’s move to the new American Athletic Conference is met with a pair of Texas opponents in early non-conference play vs. Texas Tech and Texas A&M. SMU loses six all-conference players from last years team, but they should come out firing and ready vs. the Red Raiders. Former Texas Tech QB Kliff Kingsbury takes over as the Red Raiders head coach. They’ll go through growing pains as he reinstalls the Air Raid offense and the players adjust. Eight wins from last season could be cut in half this year; at least vs. FBS opponents. With a unproven new head coach, two new offensive coordinators, new QB and a very inexperienced offensive line adapting to changes in coaches in philosophies, the Red Raiders could get bitten hard by this live home ‘Dog – urrr Pony!
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