College Football Handicapping – Late Season Fatigue

Evaluating Emotion and Identifying Signs Of Late Season Fatigue

We’re in the closing weeks of the college football season and late season fatigue, emotion and defensive erosion needs to be evaluated.  Emotion can play a significant part of handicapping college football, and no greater time than late season when rivalry games, last home games, conference titles and a final four playoff berth are at stake.  Same too with teams out of the bowl game picture ( towel tossers ), as their season has been lost and especially disappointing for players and teams that had higher expectations.  While many handicappers including myself analyze and apply statistical profiles of teams, there is a real opportunity to uncover more point spread winners if you understand emotion and the human element of physical wear and tear on players and teams as they push towards the finish.

The conundrum of momentum vs. letdown and determining whether a team will play to their potential and stat profiles is part of the point spread puzzle.  The big rivalry games are at the forefront of the late November schedule and add another incentive and motivation to all teams whether they are experiencing a winning or losing season.

But the wear and tear of a long season brings a number of factors into consideration as players battle bumps, bruises and try to continue at a peak performance level.   One way to identify teams that are wearing down and showing signs of fatigue is through an evaluation of recent results and note some erosion in defensive performance and statistical profiles.  Review team schedules and note teams that have played stronger opponents week after week and know it’s more difficult to sustain a strong and high-level of play following a number of tough, grinding games.

In my articles providing team’s bye week schedules, you can note that a late-season bye becomes more valuable to teams as they regroup and become refreshed for the upcoming games.  Even playing a lesser non-conference opponent can be an advantage as big conference teams get a reprieve from the weekly grind of a tougher conference schedule.

Same too with emotion as teams like Alabama must regroup quickly off their big win over LSU last week and travel to take on Mississippi State November 14. The Bulldogs had a bye October 31 and trounced the Missouri Tigers on the road last week 31-13 in preparation for their redemption rematch with Alabama. Mississippi State was 9-0 and shockingly moved up to the No. 1 ranked team in the nation last season when Alabama knocked them off 25-20. The Bulldogs should clearly bring a big effort this week at home taking back 8-points with the cowbells giving them extra energy at home.

Last season I tweeted that Utah could be wearing down following 5-straight Pac-12 games decided by 3-points or less in regulation. The Utes stat profile was still strong defensively, but Oregon went into Salt Lake City and we played the Ducks and they delivered a 51-27 domination. While Oregon’s offense was a juggernaut last season, the fatigue factor cannot be discounted as Utah was allowing just 21 points per game until that contest and allowed over 500 yards offense against Oregon.

Along with the fatigue factor and situational handicapping comes the late season weather watch, as some teams have been playing in warmer and hot weather and that also wears down players and their body as they try to compete in some meaningful late-season games.  Colder and/or windy weather requires players to battle through the elements, which can be more mentally draining and affect performance.

Note too teams that run a spread offense and/or play at a faster pace to run more plays, as often times those teams defenses are on the field for more plays which of course wears them down.  Longer games and more energy exerted by these defenses.

A simple stats search of opponent’s plays per game will show you that a top team like undefeated Oklahoma State has seen their defense on the field for 90 plays per game in their last three contests and average 83 snaps per game against this season. You can segment stats and evaluate team’s last three games vs. season-long stats, and apply the potential late-season fatigue by noting statistical variances in performance.

Teams that have allowed an average of more than 83 plays per game against over the last three games ( approx. 10 more plays per game than the national average ):

Oklahoma State, UCLA, Tulsa, Texas, Indiana, California, Oklahoma, Middle Tennessee State, Miami, FL, West Virginia, Duke, Troy, Hawaii, Marshall, UMASS

As you evaluate these late-season contests, dig deeper into not only the stats, but recognize the situations involving momentum, letdown and the fatigue factor.  Grade out a team’s performances in recent weeks based on the emotional and physical toll it took on them and the energy they put forth.  Use a 1-10 scale, and I use this in predicting such energy and emotion for teams before the season even starts.  Ohio State vs. Michigan State on November 21?  Max energy and grade for both teams as they play a showdown for the Big Ten East division title and a spot in the Big Ten title game. Note the following week Ohio State will travel to Ann Arbor for their rivalry game against Michigan which provides another emotional situation in handicapping college football. When you can identify teams that are likely to be worn out and/or not at their emotional peak to deliver a quality performance, you’ll have another edge against the bookmaker and start to realize even more value in the point spread.

Your power ratings, stat profiles and evaluations are still significant and you clearly have to make adjustments, but as you become more proficient in identifying emotional and fatigue factors and add this to your arsenal, you’ll cash more winners.   That’s because you understand a team is not going to bring their best or play to their potential (letdown) and stat profiles because they just don’t have enough gas left in the tank.  Thus, you’ll not only cash more winners, but not be surprised when a team like Arkansas (+11) wins outright at Mississippi as they did last week – a Top Play winner for us and members.   You’ll be able to look back at games and results like the Arkansas’ win and realize that the Razorbacks had a bye weeks earlier and played a soft non-conference opponent the week before Ole Miss while the Rebels were playing ninth straight game without rest and coming off a big redemption road win at Auburn setting up an inflated favorite situation and a likely letdown for a worn-out defense that allowed Arkansas to roll up over 600 yards offense. .

As you see, attrition and the fatigue factor is real at this time of the season, and if you can identify such situations you’re going to have more tap-in birdies and point-spread winners.

If you’re feeling tired, fatigued or not getting the results you’re looking for, then join the hundreds of members who win thousands and benefit from my experience and well-rounded game. After all, we’re having another strong season in point spread prognosis and providing more victories and value, as our Top Plays are 27-9 ATS going all the way back to September in college football including 7-1 the last two weeks.

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit, and enjoy all the games and meaningful college football contests through the Bowl season and final four playoffs.