College Football Handicapping – Early Season Line Moves and Adjustments

Evaluating Early Season Line Moves and Adjustments and Applying a Contrary Approach

Every week the college football handicapper looks at the card and makes adjustments to power ratings and opinions on teams. As we dig through the stats, box scores, misleading info and results along with injury information, we anticipate and adjust to the games ahead. Coaching, schemes and scheduling are factored into the upcoming match-ups and the situations of momentum or letdown are factored in.

With three weeks of data and results to use now a quarter of the way through the regular season, we can start to use more statistical profiles which helps us in our handicap of the games. Combining the fundamental, statistical and situational handicapping with some additional research and profiles can help us isolate more winners.

But another tool to use when handicap games is something I learned in recent years from a sharp East coast professional which stimulates your mind to a contrary look at college football. I’ve known for years that these early season results dictate an adjustment in betting lines. And the linemaker knows that a majority of the public bettors are going to get on the bandwagon of the top early season performers and teams, and stay away from the bad teams and poor performers.

Perhaps you read my earlier article about betting on bad teams, and in weeks 4-5-6, you’re going to have an opportunity to get some extra value on not only ‘bad’ teams, but other teams where public perception and (over)adjustment of betting lines is not reality.

It’s been proven with winning ATS results for many years that the next three weeks will provide more contrary and against the grain winners betting on teams that have failed miserably to the point spread in the early season.

Momentum players like to ‘play on’ teams that are doing well and rolling along in the early season, and ‘play against’ teams that are performing poorly. But if you can get out of your comfort zone and take a more contrary approach while getting value, you’ll be able to isolate even more winners by applying some of the information I provide below. It will take some research on your part each week, but the reward will be worth it.

Since point spreads move from the opening number to closing, ATS stats and grading plays or results can vary slightly. But as a guideline, over the next three weeks, if you use this situation and do some homework to find the games where the line parameters below pertain, you’ll find yourself with more winners than losers, and often teams you would never have considered betting on.

In early season results, the ‘bad’ teams and many at the bottom of the conference standings have failed rather miserably to the point spread. However, even highly rated teams like Oklahoma, LSU, Notre Dame, Oregon and TCU have underperformed to the point spread through three games.

The teams in first chart below have failed to the point spread by at least 20 points. In other words, if they were an underdog of 7 points and lost by 16, they failed to the point spread by 9 points. If they were a 10 point favorite and won by 4, they failed to the point spread by 6 points. Lines of course move and there is some subjective data, but we can use this 20 point differential as a good guideline.

Many of these team’s power ratings have been adjusted, but more often the linemaker makes bigger adjustments against these teams knowing many bettors won’t have an interest in supporting these underperformers.

 

Team	SU Record	ATS	Difference
Virginia	0-3	1-2	-22
Iowa State	0-3	1-2	-34
Oklahoma	1-2	0-3	-46
Notre Dame	1-2	1-2	-21
Kentucky	1-2	0-3	-28
LSU	2-1	0-3	-26
Arizona	2-1	0-3	-37
Oregon	2-1	0-2-1	-29
TCU	2-1	0-3	-32
Illinois	1-2	1-2	-23
Syracuse	1-2	1-2	-26
No. Illinois	0-3	0-3	-25
Bowling Green	1-2	0-3	-71
Arkansas State	0-3	0-3	-37
Idaho	1-2	0-3	-43
Connecticut	2-1	0-3	-26
Florida Atlantic	1-2	0-3	-28
Charlotte	1-2	1-2	-24

 

Two teams that have played just two games but failed to the point spread by at least 20 points are Buffalo and Marshall, and you see the big line adjustments against them in their upcoming games.

Meanwhile, the teams below have been covering the point spreads and rewarding their betting backers. These teams have covered the line by at least 20 points. Some like Louisville, Houston, Michigan and Ohio State have been rolling to big wins with some of those victories of significance (Louisville blowing out Florida State, and both Houston and Ohio State burying Oklahoma). That makes then ‘hot’ teams for many bettors, but you have to understand the line adjustments, scheduling, opponents and motivation when playing upcoming games.

Team	SU Record	ATS	Difference
Louisville	3-0	2-0	+80
Houston	3-0	2-1	+36
Michigan	3-0	2-1	+22
Ohio State	3-0	3-0	+76
Miami, FL	3-0	3-0	+48
Alabama	3-0	2-1	+30
Texas A&M	3-0	3-0	+30
Colorado	2-1	3-0	+36
So. Florida	3-0	3-0	+28
Army	3-0	3-0	+88
Central Michigan	3-0	3-0	+40
Toledo	3-0	3-0	+50
Western Michigan	3-0	3-0	+41
Ball State	2-1	3-0	+36
Troy	2-1	2-1	+31

The linemaker makes adjustments to his own power ratings while also recognizing the public’s perception of teams based on performance and results. So the linemaker knows many public bettors like to bet on those ‘hot figures’ and high profile teams that are rolling to big wins, while the no-names, underperformers and ‘bad teams’ have little appeal to the bettor chasing the ‘hottie’.

Over the next three weeks, if you ‘play on’ the teams with a (-20) or greater point spread differential when playing an opponent with a (+20) or greater differential, you’ll see some winning results. When you combine these situations with the negative teams coming off an ATS loss playing a positive team coming off an ATS win, you can start to reap even greater rewards. It’s similar to the stock market approach when buying low and selling high, but you have to factor in not only the betting line, which is often inflated, but also injuries, match-ups, motivation and statistical parameters. This is a contrary approach to handicapping college football, but a tool you can add to your arsenal for upcoming weeks and future seasons.

Last week when applying these guidelines, the games went 2-1 ATS. Georgia State (+35) easily covered against Wisconsin in a 23-17 defeat while Ole Miss (+11) took the money in a 48-43 loss to Alabama. However, public bettors who loved their beautiful Buckeye’s and kept riding Ohio State got an easy win over Oklahoma, who has continued to crumble.

Some match-ups to watch and consider wagering this week include:

Louisville at Marshall (+28)

Army at Buffalo (+14.5)

Ball State at Florida Atlantic (+3.5)

Louisville is sizzling hot having scored at least 60 points in all three games, and the Cardinals come off their high-profile blowout win over Florida State last week. But can there be any greater letdown situation on this week’s schedule knowing too that Louisville travels to ACC favorite and Top-5 Clemson next week? Marshall’s meltdown as a big favorite last week has the public hating the ‘Herd, despite them gaining over 550 yards in defeat last week (-3 net turnovers). Yet are you aware that had this game been played just three weeks ago, Louisville would have been less than a double-digit favorite? With Marshall 9-0 ATS as a home ‘Dog of 6 or more points since 1990, you know what to do.

Army clearly has a big rushing edge over Buffalo, which is part of my weekly handicap in determining the advantage at the point of attack. But to understand line value and adjustments, at the start of the season Buffalo would have been a slight favorite in this match-up. That’s how far the Bulls have fallen and how fast Army has moved up with their greatly improved play.

Adjust your numbers each week and use this information as a tool as you continue to evaluate the match-ups, stats, scheduling situations and more. With some added information and an intuitive feel for the game, you’ll find yourself with more point spread winners and cash in your pocket.