College Football Handicapping – Contrary Concepts

Adapting to linemaker adjustments in College Football Handicapping – by @FairwayJay

Week 2 of the college football season is ‘adjustment’ week, as many lines and point spreads are significantly adjusted by the linemaker based on teams’ opening week performances. The linemaker may over-adjust for a team’s recent performance while also understanding that much of the betting public is likely to support the positive performing team. When a team performs poorly and/or the final score is not indicative of the actual stats or game situations, many bettors will have a knee jerk reaction and not feel comfortable supporting these recent poor performers. That leaves the handicapper and bettor with the following situations to analyze and how to best interpret the information and expected play in week 2 and moving forward.

* Positive and Negative Momentum

*  Letdown and Lookahead

*  Bounceback after Beating

A majority of bettors and the betting public will look to ride the momentum of a positive performance and big win by a team in opening week (or the previous week). Many will likewise fade the team that took a beating rather than supporting the contrary side and counting on a bounceback performance.  So within these divergent results early in the season, the line value is often heavily influenced towards a recent positive or negative performance.

That brings us to contrary concepts and indicators not often understood when handicapping and analyzing college football, players and team tendencies.

Here is a game example for Week 2 on Saturday, September 7.  Cincinnati is an 8-point road favorite at Illinois. Last week, the Fighting Illini (-17) won 42-34 at home over So. Illinois. The Illini seemingly took control 25-7 at halftime before a closer than expected final score. Illinois really struggled to run the ball while gaining just 49 rushing yards of their 464 total yards. The Illini defense also allowed over 400 yards to a FCS team. Meanwhile Cincinnati (-10) rolled to a 42-7 romp over Big Ten foe Purdue, and the Bearcats dominated statistically (425 yds to 226) and on the scoreboard in head coach Tommy Tuberville’s Cincinnati debut. The Bearcats running game rolled up 221 rushing yards. Note that Purdue had four turnovers (5 fumbles, lost 2 + 2 INT) and QB Rob Henry was making his first start since 2010.

So, this week we see the adjustment in price towards Cincinnati off their big win and Illinois’ suspect win and performance. We also see over 65% of the bets on the Bearcats, despite some line movement towards Illinois.Note too that Illinois finished last season with 9-straight losses and are on a 1-9 ATS run; further contributing to the concerns in Champagne. Cincinnati coach Tuberville has still left the QB competition open with both seniors Munchie Legaux and Brandon Kay to play vs Illinois. Legaux threw two INT’s last week and his decision-making is still suspect. Kay missed substantial practice time over the summer with a sore shoulder that cost him the likely full time job until he earns it back. Illinois QB Nathan Scheelhaase threw for a career-high 416 yards last week operating from the new up-tempo no-huddle spread offense. The Illinois offense can move the ball and score, providing a competitive contest and plenty of back-door potential if not on the lead.

@FairwayJay