College Football Handicapping – Big Betting Favorites

College Football Handicapping – Week 4 SEC features Big Betting Favorites

North Texas @ Georgia (-33)

Early start in Athens, as Georgia hosts North Texas as a huge favorite off a bye. The class difference in this college football handicapping contest is enormous, as is the betting line. But the Bulldogs focus and preparation had to be towards their key SEC home game next week vs. LSU. North Texas head coach Dan McCarney is slowly turning the fortunes of the Mean Green in his 3^rd season. North Texas has been dreadful the past decade, and when they find prosperity off a win, the Mean Green go soft and are just 4-19 ATS. Still, a solid come-from-behind momentum win last week over Ball State, 34-27 as the experienced Mean Green team (17 returning starters) gained further confidence and I expect them to show up and play hard this week rather than mail it in for a paycheck for the program. The risk in supporting Georgia is not just their emotional energy, (lack of) focus or interest in showing their best prior to next week’s SEC showdown. Consider that the Bulldogs young, inexperienced defense (3 returning starters) has shown some deficiencies while allowing 34 ppg and over 460 ypg. Fully aware those numbers were against solid squads and offenses of Clemson and South Carolina, but can’t expect a full, focused effort by the Dawgs, who were also 0-4 ATS as a 25+ point favorite last season.

Colorado State at Alabama (-39)

The #1 team in the land appears to have another layup, but the betting prices are steep on the Crimson Tide. This is another college football handicapping contest where emotion and (lack of) focus often play out. Alabama (2-0) is 1-6 ATS their last seven games as a 30+ point favorite the past two years. Note that the ‘Tides dominating defense the past two years is allowing 26 ppg, 160 rushing ypg and over 415 ypg this season. Well aware that was vs. Virginia Tech and Texas A&M, but allowing 628 yards to the Aggies last week in a 49-42 revenge game cannot sit well with the ‘Bama defense. Colorado State (1-2) head coach Jim McElwain, a former QB himself and also offensive coordinator at Alabama from 2008-2011, is quickly restoring the Rams. The offense is improving and can be dynamic with a veteran offensive line featuring four seniors. The Rams are averaging 29 ppg through three games and have a solid running attack. CSU’s 3-4 defense and strength can’t match-up with ‘Bama and will ultimately wear down. But can’t imagine the ‘Till will roll the Rams in a bad schedule situation and a likely letdown looming Saturday.

SMU at Texas A&M (-28)

Johnny football got the money last week as he and his Aggies snuck through the back door in the closing seconds vs. Alabama. The 49-42 loss was highlighted by QB Johnny Manziel’s 5 TD passes. He passed for 464 for yards and rushed for another 100, but he and his buddies are also in a bad college football handicapping spot this week off the physical battle with ‘Bama. Texas A&M (2-1) has mauled the Mustangs (1-1) the past two years, beating SMU 48-3 and 46-14. Where is the motivation and emotion to bring their best Saturday?  No chance for full focus or energy against in-state SMU with their road opener at Arkansas next week. Well aware Texas A&M’s offense is explosive and has scored at least 42 points in each of their first three games; all going over the high posted totals. This match-up has a over/under total posted at 79, as SMU is expected to is SMU has underperformed in two opening games, but head coach June Jones is a genius, and his staff of offensive gurus have an extra week of prep and practice to get their Red Gun offense ready to fire. Laying 4 TD’s with a defense allowing 36 ppg and nearly 500 ypg is a very poor percentage play. SMU quarterback Garrett Gilbert is averaging nearly 400 ypg total offense to rank #3 nationally and his 38 pass attempts per game leads the nation. This match-up is not about point-of-attack play or SMU being able to line up in the trenches and battle the big boys in College Station. Rather, SMU’s up-tempo, spread offense will throw the ball all over the field, and won’t let up in a closer than expected contest; especially in the first half.

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