College Football Handicapping – Analysis of a Winning Wager

Colorado Buffalo’s Stampede In-State Rival Rams, 44-7 – Analysis of a Winning Wager

We kicked off the college football season in style when members kicked back and watched Colorado (-8) route their in-state rival Colorado State, 44-7 for a Top Play winner. The Buffaloe’s stampede never stopped as Colorado rolled up 525 yards offense while holding the Rams to 225 yards. The Buffs actually slowed the tempo in the second half after unveiling their new, fast-paced offense to build a 31-0 halftime lead.

A new up-tempo offense delivered new results, and the defense was dominant. It may be just one game, but the positives and takeaways from the Buffaloe’s win is encouraging for Colorado fans and bettors.

We nailed another Top Play winner in the altitude Saturday night when Wyoming overcame a slow start following a nearly two hour weather delay to outlast Northern Illinois 40-34 in triple overtime. We sent this one out early to members at +10, and bettors loaded up on the puppy chow as the Cowboys closed as a 7-point ‘Dog and delivered outright. A 2-1 start on our Top Play sides and a winning opening week as our side winners also included Army (+16) in the Black Knights outright win over Temple, 28-13. Our big ‘Dog opinions did not fare too well, but we chipped-in a Texas-sized win in the Longhorns thrilling OT win over Notre Dame, 50-47. There will be plenty of opportunity and value when betting on bad teams ahead, and it’s important not to over-react to one week of results.

Significant improvement is often made by many teams from their opening week game to week 2, and even week 3. Find match-up and motivation edges, and combine that with statistical parameters and situational spots and you’ll locate more value and live ‘Dogs, along with teams like Colorado that are ready to crush their opponent.

Here was the article I posted on the Colorado game and analysis provided to members who join me for weekly winners and insight.

The 88^th meeting between these in-state rivals, and last year Colorado escaped in overtime 27-24 despite being out-gained by Colorado State 500-345. Both teams are projected to struggle again this season in their respective conferences, but the Pac-12 Buffaloes are expected to roll over their state rival with Colorado State rebuilding a bit in the Mountain West. The last time we saw a line above a touchdown in this series was in 2010 when the Buffaloes buried the Rams 24-3. The Buffaloes have taken money and are up to a -8.5-point favorite with the total also up to 58. The game is on a neutral field in Denver at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. 

Colorado has won just 13 games in the last five seasons including four last year. Coach Mike MacIntyre has had to rebuild in Boulder, and while a miserable 2-25 in Pac-12 play in his tenure, they have been much more competitive in recent seasons losing eight of those games by a TD or less and last year lost to four bowl teams by an average of 5 points per game. The Buffs are the most experienced team in the Pac-12 this season, and with nine starters back on both sides of the ball, Colorado will clearly be improved. The defense made strides last year under new coordinator Jim Leavitt, allowing the fewest points per game (27) in nine years. The co-offensive coordinator is credited with instituting Texas Tech’s high-powered pass attack, and the Buffaloes offense will see an increase in pace and number of plays. How quickly the veterans assimilate to the scheme will be key, but the Buffaloes offense has the right opponent and defense to start the season against.

The Buffs defense should slow a Rams offense that lost its top four WR, and is playing possum with their starting QB selection. The Rams run a pro style hybrid offense for second-year coach Mike Bobo, but they will have some struggles moving the ball on the ground against the Buffs veteran front seven. Colorado State returns just four players on defense and rebuilds its entire defensive front and secondary while adjusting to a new 3-4 scheme. They forced just 15 turnovers last season and the Rams allowed over 210 rushing yards per game, so the Buffaloes should stampeded their way on the ground and have good balance with their spread attack and senior quarterback Liufau. We see the Buffaloes getting out ahead and continuing their assault as they pick up the pace and force Colorado State to play from behind and pass the ball more often.

McIntyre has his own recruits in place and a veteran team in his fourth year, and the Buffaloes look primed to Ram Colorado State and stampede their way to victory.