FairwayJay’s FREE College Football selection for Saturday, November 16

FairwayJay’s Free College Football Selection November 16 & Game Analysis of Florida at South Carolina

Line:  South Carolina -12.5 I Total:  41.5

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The South Carolina Gamecocks ( 7-2 SU, 4-5 ATS ) continue their strong play when they host the underachieving Florida Gators ( 4-5 SU, 2-5 ATS ) on Saturday, November 16, 2013.  Over 80,000 fans will fill Williams Brice Stadium in Columbia, SC.  Kickoff is scheduled for 7:00 ET

Quite an adjustment in price with Florida’s struggles. This line is less than a TD early season but the Gators have lost 4-straight games ( 1-3 ATS ) and their offense has failed to score over 20 points during the losing streak. Clearly South Carolina coach and former Florida head man Steve Spurrier would love to deliver a big payback for last year’s loss in the swamp, 44-11. That score was very misleading as neither team reached 200 yards offense, but four (4) South Carolina turnovers were converted to scores for the Gators.  The Gamecocks have won 15 straight home games and over 62% of the bets are supporting South Carolina. What they don’t know is that teams who fail to score at least 28 points as a TD or greater favorite lose over 80% of the time ATS.  With that in mind, we’ll see if Florida’s strong defense can keep them in this projected lower-scoring game.

In league play, Florida runs the ball for just 132 ypg and 3.2 ypr; 60 rypg less than South Carolina. The passing attacks are fairly one-sided with Florida averaging just 180 ypg while South Carolina and QB Connor Shaw passes for 265 yp in league play.  Florida QB Tyler Murphy is a game-time decision but appears to be out with a shoulder injury and redshirt freshman QB Skyler Mornhinweg is set to start.  The offense would appear to be further hindered along with injuries. Yet the Gators are still a defensive dominator, leading the SEC allowing just 299 ypg and 5.0 yards per play. South Carolina is #3 in league defense allowing 352 ypg. Both pass defenses are top-3 allowing less that 190 ypg while Florida is #1 in pass efficiency defense and has allowed just 50% completions and 3 TD passes in seven SEC games.

Florida has lost 10 players to season-ending injuries including their QB and RB with five top offensive lineman also missing some action. The Gators offensive line figures to be pressured heavily in this game as they have allowed 22 sacks in seven SEC games to rank second to last in the SEC.  Penalties have also been a problem for the with  a league-high 441 penalty yards in seven SEC games. Last week the Gators had 11 penalties in a 34-17 loss to Vanderbilt; a game in which the Gators rushed for just 39 yards on 34 carries.  Yet Florida held the Commodores to just 183 total yards but suffered four more turnovers in defeat.

South Carolina has the second most rushing attempts in league play, and opposing teams have run the ball heavily at the Gamecocks defense. Expect more of the same as both teams try to pound the ground with limited success passing to set up a lower-scoring game. While the lines is high due to Florida’s struggles and South Carolina’s motivation, the injuries for the Gators and continued shuffling has proven to be a problem as proven again last week with just 39 rushing yards.  Recall that South Carolina lost to Tennessee recently and failed to score more than 21 points against a Vols defense that allows 36 ppg and 443 ypg but does have a strong pass defense like Florida.  The Gamecocks were also shut out for three quarters vs. Missouri.

The under is 9-4 in Florida’s last 13 road games and with another lower-scoring game expected, we’ll play under the total.

FairwayJay is pulling Big Bertha out of the Bag for a Top Play release on Saturday in Top-25 action.  Log in below for the rated play on Florida and sign-up for big game action and get all Top Plays for the next week.  Full Card Club members get the most games and winning action along with bonus NFL coverage this week.

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FairwayJay’s FREE College Football Selection on Saturday, November 16, 2013