College Football Defensive Dominators

Evaluating The Stats And College Football Defensive Dominators

In seasons past I’ve written many articles on college football using statistical indicators and profiles to direct you to more point spread winners. With four to five games in the books including some conference games, lets identify the defensive dominators this season.

With some conference games now played, we can more realistically analyze the proven teams and performers as the statistics become more clear. Update your records weekly and keep in mind with rules changes, scoring increasing and more teams operating out of spread formations and utilizing more up-tempo or no-huddle attacks, we see a shift and increase in scoring and yards. Last season college football games averaged more than 56 points per game.

So each season we adjust our numbers and profiles based on specific parameters, and we sort through the more meaningful stats and understand the strengths and weaknesses of teams and opponents. I’ve adjusted slightly downward some of the stats and scoring to provide this year’s list of defensive dominators, who must meet the following criteria:

Allow 350 or less yards per game ( YPG )

Allow 140 or less rushing YPG

Allow 22 or less points per game ( PPG )

Allow 5.0 or less yards per play ( YPPL )

PPG – Points-Per-Game YPG – Yards-Per-Game

YPPL – Yards-Per-Play – YPR – Yards-Per-Rush

Team	PPG	YPG	YPPL	Rush YPG/YPR
Alabama	16	273	3.9	84
Appalachian St	18	313	4.7	133
Boise State	15	251	3.7	56
Boston College	12	199	3.1	68
Clemson	16	335	4.7	112
Duke	13	291	4.1	140
Florida	17	304	4.2	99
Florida State	12	281	4.1	140
Georgia	21	322	4.7	128
Illinois	22	344	4.7	135
Iowa	16	317	4.4	97
LSU	21	293	4.3	106
Michigan	8	184	3.1	72
Missouri	14	279	4.1	100
Navy	17	335	5.0	130
NC State	17	254	4.4	91
Northwestern	9	275	4.1	129
Ohio State	15	283	3.7	132
Penn State	16	284	4.1	124
Pittsburgh	16	191	3.2	54
Stanford	19	327	4.7	127
Wisconsin	10	278	4.3	95

 

With 128 FBS teams on the college football betting board, there are currently 15 teams allowing 16 points or less per game in scoring defense. There are 32 teams allowing less than 21 points per game, and that number will drop as teams play more conference games. Note I’ve identified some teams below to watch as they are near defensive dominator status but fall just short in a category or two. I’ve strengthened our stat profiles by including games and stats from FBS opponents, so none of the stats above include games against FCS opponents. Update your stats and info weekly and adjust for strength of schedule along with other statistical, situational and motivational parameters as you shoot for more point spread winners.

Teams to watch – Akron, Arkansas, Baylor, Kentucky, Michigan State, Minnesota, Ohio U, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Temple, Toledo, USC, Utah, Vanderbilt, Washington, West Virginia

You can strengthen the profiles by evaluating a team’s net yards-per-play differential, between offensive yards-gained and defensive yards allowed, which is often a key statistical indicator for winning and ATS success. Last year we used this to identify one of our Top Plays of the season when Miami, FL (-2) dominated Virginia Tech in an easy 30-6 road win in late October. We’ll be identifying more of these solid situations in the weeks ahead and into November.

The purpose of this article is to identify some of the stronger defensive teams, and also encourage you to dig a little deeper in your own evaluation of teams, schedules and stats. Some of these teams will fall off this list in the weeks ahead, while others I’ve noted that are close will move into dominator status soon.

Supporting strong defensive teams is usually a good starting point in your analysis of a contest and match-up, but note injuries, turnovers and other negative yardage or factors as you analyze the opponent and schedules. Defensive profiles can also assist you in totals betting, which can be even more effective with scoring increases, rising posted totals and more inclement weather ahead.

I hope this information is useful to you. If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to research this or other statistical parameters and profiles to select more point spread winners, then join me and hundreds of other Members and Fairway followers and we’ll win together.