College Basketball Handicapping – Sweet Sixteen Top Seeds

Inside the Numbers and Past Performance of Sweet Sixteen Top Seeds

 

The Sweet Sixteen tips off Thursday, March 27, and I thought I would take you inside the numbers with past results for #1 seeds.  The past performance of Sweet Sixteen top seeds is proven, as #1 seeds are 80-21 SU since 1985.  Of note is that these top seeds are 23-0 SU vs. teams seeded #6 or greater.

This year’s three remaining #1 seeds will all play a #4 seeded team in the Sweet Sixteen.

Here are the match-ups on Thursday, March 27 and Friday, March 28, 2014.

#1 Florida (-4.5) vs. #4 UCLA – FedEx Forum; Memphis, TN  – March 27

#1 Arizona (-6.5) vs. #4 San Diego State – Honda Center; Anaheim, CA – March 27

#1 Virginia (+2) vs. #4 Michigan State – Madison Square Garden, NY, NY– March 28

So with history as our guide, note that #1 seeds are 57-21 SU vs. teams seeded #4 or #5.  Recent history shows two #1 seeds losing last year to #4 seeds.

2013

#1 Indiana (-5) lost to #4 Syracuse 61-50

#1 Kansas (-1) lost to #4 Michigan 87-85 in OT

In 2012, another #1 seed lost to #4 seed

#1 Michigan State (-5.5) lost to #4 seed Louisville 57-44

In 2011, two more upsets of #1 top-seeded teams

#1 Ohio State (-5.5) lost to #4 Kentucky 62-60

#1 Duke (-9.5) lost to #5 Arizona 93-77

There is another statistical profile that points to #1 seeds being more vulnerable to losing to a #4 or #5 seed in this round.  It’s a solid situation, and members get the inside information in the rest of this article.

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Best wishes in the Sweet Sixteen and beyond, and may you profit from the experience.

Stay on course…