College Basketball Handicapping – Breakdown and Betting Purdue at Michigan

Big Ten-Best Boilermakers too Tough of a Match-up for Wolverines

Big Ten-leading Purdue (23-5/12-3) visits Crisler Center in Ann Arbor for their only game of the season against Michigan (18-10/8-7) Saturday. The ESPN2 cameras will be rolling, and if the game and match-ups play out as expected, the Boilermakers will leave with their 7^th straight victory as they close in on their first Big Ten title since 2010.

Saturday, Feb. 25

Purdue at Michigan

Line – Purdue +1  Total 141

TV: ESPN2 at 4:00 ET

The Boilermakers lead the Big Ten at 12-3 and own the tie-breaker over Wisconsin having beaten the Badgers (11-4) and 3^rd place Maryland (10-5). Purdue is also exceeding the linemakers expectations going 16-8-1 against the spread (ATS). Both Purdue and Michigan are so well-coached by Matt Painter and John Beilein, but one of these teams is for real and on their way to a Big Ten title while the other has over-achieved but could well hit the skids their final three games and be on the outside looking in at NCAA Tournament time.

Purdue’s profile and stats suggest they are strong across the board, and frankly a legitimate dark horse to make a run to the Final Four and national title game in March. Purdue is big and balanced inside and out, leading the Big Ten in scoring (78 PPG), assists (17.6), rebounding margin (+5.5), 3-point shooting (41%) and free throw shooting (81%). The Boilers are No. 2 in the league in FG shooting (47%), and their efficiency on offense will present all sorts of problems for a Michigan defense that ranks last in the Big Ten in FG defense (48.3%) and rebounding margin (-4.7).

But what’s allowed Michigan to win their share of games is sharp shooting and efficiency on offense, along with the fewest turnovers with a league-best turnover margin. Credit coach Beilein for that and Michigan’s ability to stay in the NCAA Tournament discussion. The Wolverines are one of the few teams that can match Purdue’s abundance of perimeter weapons (5 players shoot at least 40% from the arc). However, in this match-up they face Purdue’s league-best (tied) 3-point defense and No. 2 overall FG defense (41.6%). Few second chance opportunities will be afforded Michigan as Purdue is No. 1 in both offensive and defensive rebounding, and the Wolverines poor perimeter defense will struggle to contain the Boilers outside shooters as well.

The size problems that Purdue can present come from 7’2” junior center Isaac Haas and sophomore National Player of the Year candidate Caleb Swanigan, who leads the Big Ten in rebounding by margin (13.2) and is No. 2 in scoring (18 PPG). Michigan has not a single player in the top-20 in Big Ten rebounding, and only an unconscious shooting night from Derrick Walton, Jr. and plenty of whistles against Purdue and potential foul trouble in the front court prevent a Purdue victory.

Last season Michigan became the first team to out-rebound Purdue in a mid-February Wolverines victory on this Crisler court. This year’s Boilers are better and an unselfish, cohesive, defensive dominator and strong shooting team that Michigan can simply not match.

Purdue is your pick to beat Michigan in the Wolverine’s last home game, as the Boilermakers win their 7^th straight game and improve to 6-3 on the road (4-0 neutral).