College Basketball Handicapping – Analysis Of A Winning Wager

Down To The Wire And Top-Ranked Kentucky Avoids Upset At LSU, 71-69 – Analysis Of A Winning Wager

The college basketball season pushes towards the regular season finish and post season tournaments, and many teams are battling for conference titles and post season positioning.  Other teams have seen reality set in with some ‘towel tossers’ and others hoping to finish above .500 with a chance to play in the NIT, CBI and postseason tournaments other than the big dance – the NCAA Tournament.  So many situations to evaluate other than stats and match-ups as we pursue more profit in our point spread prognosis.

Such was the case again on ‘Super Tuesday’, and we hit our Big Bertha driver long and straight with a Top Play winner on LSU (+10), as the Bayou Bengals took undefeated and #1 Kentucky Wildcats to the wire before a last-second shot for the win came up short in a 71-69 Wildcats win.  Kentucky is the nation’s dominant team and will be the overall #1 seed for the NCAA Tournament, but not all is perfect for the Wildcats as they have gone 0-5 Against the Spread ( ATS ) in their last five games.

Here was the analysis of our winning wager and 20* Top Play for Members on the LSU Tigers ( +10 ) as a big underdog.

If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to proficiently project point spread winners, then join me for the rest of the regular season and through post season tournament action and we’ll win together!

Kentucky remains undefeated following a road win at Florida Saturday, 68-61. However, the Wildcats are 0-4 ATS in their last four games with inflated prices, and this is another one in a tough back-to-back road situation at LSU.  The Tigers remain Kentucky’s toughest test this season, and we think they will be a wild animal at home at the Maravich Assembly Center.  LSU bounced back from a pair of bad losses to beat ‘Bama Saturday, 71-60. The Tigers are 6-4 in SEC play and have a RPI rank of #50 in college basketball. They are a bubble team for the NCAA tourney, but a win over Kentucky would certainly prove pivotal come selection Sunday.

The Tigers are capable of pulling the upset, as they feature a pair of the league’s strongest front court players in Jordan Mickey ( 17 PPG, 11 RPG, 80 blocks ) and Jarell Martin ( 16 PPG, 9 RPG ), an athletic duo who are both top-4 in SEC scoring and rebounding. The Tigers are #1 in the SEC in rebounding just ahead of Kentucky’s dominance. The Tigers are also among the best shot-blocking teams in the country averaging over six per game while Kentucky is #1 in the country in blocked shots. Surprisingly, the Tigers only get 18% of their points at the free throw line which is too low for a team as strong inside as the LSU.

Kentucky can be so dominant and their length, depth and defensive rotations find them allowing just 51 PPG to rank #2 in the country. The Wildcats feature an impressive roster of NBA talent and rank #4 in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and top-10 in adjusted offensive efficiency.  Kentucky leads the nation in blocked shots and 2-point FG% against ( 36% ), have a very deep bench seeing 43% court time and wear down opponents as they force foes into very long possessions and contested shots.

But LSU is one of the few teams that can battle the Kentucky bigs inside, and transfer PG Josh Gray ( 8 PPG ) has fit in nicely with big guards Quarterman ( 12 PPG ) and transfer sharp shooter Hornsby ( 12 PPG ) in the back court. The Tigers have turned the corner in becoming a top defensive team while holding SEC opponents to 42% FG and we expect a huge effort from LSU as they keep this game very competitive on a home court in which LSU is 38-8 SU the last 3+ years and 11-2 this year.  The Tigers inside players will perform well, and as long as LSU protects the basketball and plays with poise, this game should go to the wire making the generous points worth taking.