College Basketball Handicapping – Analysis of Winning Wagers

Analysis of Winning Wagers in Small Conference College Basketball

We had a big winning day on a huge Wednesday card posting 7 rated winners and going 2-1 on our Top Plays. The analysis of those winning wagers is below, and our other Top Play came up short on Wyoming (-1.5) in a 79-75 loss to Fresno State. The Bulldogs had three key players out with injury and played just seven players the entire game in the high altitude of Laramie. Yet  Fresno State had an anomalous shooting night making a ridiculous 15-of-22 (68%) three point shots to hold on for the win. The Bulldogs entered the game eighth in the Mountain West in three point shooting at 32%. Wyoming led or tied in all of the specialty categories — points in the paint, off turnovers, on second chances, on fast breaks and from the bench — but the Bulldogs’ seemingly unconscious shooting display allowed them to escape.

“(Statistical aberrations) happen often probably in a lot of sports and you’ve got to go to a Plan B,” Wyoming coach Shyatt said. “We planned on playing a little more zone, but we went to zone early and the transfer from Washington (Jahmel Taylor, who was 4 for 4 from deep) knocked in two. That changed some things in the first half.”

Those unfortunate results are part of the variance betting basketball, but we were spot on with our other two Top Plays including the Big Bertha on Houston.

The Wyoming result is an example of why you can’t handicap just scores and records as I hear so many novice and uniformed bettors discuss when I’m in the poker rooms and sports books in Las Vegas. Understanding the situations, stats, coaching, motivation and ability to defend and play solid fundamental basketball are some of the keys to winning and beating the bookmaker in college basketball.

We’ve  had our share of struggles in recent weeks while also noting that many big ‘Dogs are not covering nearly their share this season as the new rules changes including the reduction to a 30-second shot clock has provided an added benefit to the more athletic teams who get more possessions. The rules changes inhibit the defense from as much physical contact and has resulted in a higher percentage of road favorites and big home favorites beating the point spread.

Perhaps that was also the case with our Top Play winner on Houston below on the road, but the Cougars were also the superior team with more dominant stats while Tulane just plays poor basketball too often.

We’ll keep banging the boards, blocking out and taking good shots in our pursuit of profit on the college courts. If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to research stats, situations or put the percentages in your favor for more winning results, then join a proven pro and we’ll win together.

Houston (-5.5) at Tulane    (Houston won 82-69)

American Athletic Conference

Mismatch and season sweep for Cougars on the road. Tulane No. 2 in 3-pt shots, but hitting a dreadful league low 29%. Also Green Wave hitting a league-worst 37% FG. Houston is No. 2 in perimeter defense and Cougars are much improved under 2nd yr coach Calvin Sampson. Back-to-back upset wins by Tulane as ‘Dog sets up negative situation for the Green Wave. Houston lead guard Rob Gray, the AAC’s leading scorer is scheduled to return tonight after missing the last four games with an ankle injury. Look for his offense combined with Houston’s recent scoring surge of 98 and 82 points to lead the Cougars to a crushing road win over the Green Wave for the season sweep following a 63-45 beating in the first meeting.

Western Illinois at No. Dakota State (-7.5/130)    (North Dakota State won 63-54)

Summit League

We’re going to let it rip with a double play supporting the Bison of North Dakota State and a Top Play total. The Bison return home off back-to-back losses but will get the season sweep over Summit League bottom feeder Western Illinois. The Leathernecks play their third straight on the conference trail and final road game of the season.

We note that NDSU is without leading scorer and sharp shooting guard Paul Miller, who injured his knee Feb. 4 and remains out. But Western Illinois is a towel tosser that ranks last in the league in FG shooting at 43% while the Bison have the Summit’s best FG defense and allow a league-low 66 PPG. The Leathernecks are a poor rebounding team with a negative assist-to-turnover ratio. On defense, this team is deficient allowing 46% FG. The Bison shoot 46% FG including 40% from the arc and they take just 15 fouls per game. Of course without Miller they are not as efficient, and the problem at times is that they don’t get to the free throw line enough. The Bison are 10-1 at home having beaten league leaders So. Dakota State and IUPU Fort Wayne by double digits including the latter February 6 by the count of 62-46 while playing without Miller. Fort Wayne leads the league in scoring at 80 PPG, so shutting them down is impressive and tough to see Western Illinois making much progress on the offensive end.

NDSU won the first meeting 65-52 while shooting just 39% FG with four turnovers. But they shut down the Leathernecks allowing just 32% FG and Western Illinois will be hard pressed to reach into the mid-50s.

The situation and stats suggest a lower-scoring Bison win and we’ll still lay the points and also play under the total of 130 with a Top Play noting the Bison have slowed the tempo and played four straight games under the total since Miller went down with injury.