College Basketball Games and Analysis on Feb. 14

College Basketball Marquee Matchups and Situational Handicapping

If you read my recent article regarding late-season situational handicapping, you may have picked up a little more insight on how to evaluate certain match-ups and ways to apply stats and match-up analysis to a specific situation. On February 13, Missouri delivered a SU/ATS home win at a short price applying the situation below – winning teams playing at home with redemption.

Here are some games and match-ups on Feb. 14 with teams that apply to the situations below.

• Winning teams playing on their home court off back-to-back losses.

Wed., Feb. 14

Clemson at Florida State (-4.5). Florida State (17-8/6-7 in ACC) hosts Clemson (20-4/9-3) in ACC action, and the Seminoles are off back-to-back losses, which is noted, as is their dunce coach Leonard Hamilton, who I have a very tough time supporting. Good recruiter apparently, but still poor preparation and a bad coach. Florida State is clearly stronger playing at home, but check out its road record, especially against poor teams with losses this year to bottom-tier ACC foes Notre Dame, Wake Forest and Boston College. Last year another loss as big road favorite at Pitt. Coaching matters, and he cannot be trusted. Oh, and recall FSU was blown out as 7-point favorite in NCAA Tournament last season by Xavier, 91-66.  Clemson is in 2^nd place in the ACC and Tigers on the prowl going 4-0 SU/3-0 ATS entering this double-revenge situation having lost twice to FSU last year. If Clemson coach Brad Brownell coached like Leonard Hamilton, he would be looking for a job. Fortunately, he does not, and the Tigers are so much tougher this season having suffered through many tough losses in the past. Not this season. A 4-3 road record includes a win at Ohio State. Florida State will try to push the pace and dictate tempo, and FSU is very deep and more talented than Clemson. But few coaches in college basketball are more frustrating than Hamilton. The Tigers are smarter and play better on the basketball court with a top-3 ACC scoring defense and 42% FG defense compared to the Seminoles 46% FG defense and dead last 3-point defense. Tigers lead the ACC in 3-point shooting, hitting nearly 40% from the arc and 9 made treys per game. More should fall tonight, and while Florida State does hold a rebounding margin edge of 4 per game over Clemson, the Tigers are superior at the free throw line hitting 78% from the stripe. Smart Tigers and coach vs., well, not so smart Seminoles and coach. You decide, but Tigers get the call as we pass on supporting Florida State despite the Seminoles fitting the home court parameter above.

Memphis at SMU (-6.5). Mustangs have lost 3-straight including an embarrassing 76-51 home loss in their last game against AAC league leader Cincinnati. The situation above didn’t’ work out in that game for SMU against defensive dominator Cincinnati, but Mustangs have stronger adjusted offense and defense against Memphis in this bounce-back match-up. SMU beat Memphis twice last season, including 103-62 on this court to close the regular season. Much faith in strong coaching of SMU’s Tim Jankovich vs. retread Tubby Smith, and Memphis will play without the American Conference’s leading scoring Jeremiah Martin, who injured his hip in Sunday’s home loss to Central Florida, the Tigers 3^rd straight defeat.

 

• Winning teams playing at home with redemption

Wed., Feb. 14

Villanova at Providence (+10). Providence (16-9/7-5 Big East) now catching double-digits at home against Villanova (23-2/10-2), who blasted the Friars 89-69 on Jan. 23. Villanova is one of just 11 teams in the country with one or less road losses, but buyer beware of this situation against #3 ranked Wildcats. Providence coach Ed Cooley has a clue and is more qualified and capable, and his team will be ready for a better effort in redemption against Big East power Villanova following an embarrassing home loss to DePaul last game as Friars made just 2-of-19 shots from beyond the arc.

Illinois at Indiana (-9). Illinois has just 2 wins in Big Ten play, but one of those was against Indiana (7-7), who shot 56% FG in a 73-71 defeat Jan. 27. Following 4-straight losses, Hoosiers have won two in a row, each by more than 20 points against Big Ten bottom feeders Rutgers and Minnesota. Now they get the cellar dweller Illini, who is winless on the road (0-8) and enter off a pair of home losses. Towel-tossing Illini also sport the Big Ten’s worst FG defense allowing greater than 50% shooting from the floor and are second-worst in rebounding margin with the fewest blocked shots. Indiana should hold nothing back in redemption, and Hoosiers are a money-making 6-0 ATS in their last six Big Ten home games where 17,000 fans at Assembly Hall will be hollering for a Hoosiers home blowout.

Illinois State at Bradley (-9). This one sets up in both situations above as Bradley (17-10/7-7) returns home off 3-straight losses and the Braves lost to the Redbirds 70-57 on Jan. 16. Illinois State (14-12/8-6) is just 3-8 on the road while Bradley is their best at Carver Arena going 12-1 at home. That lone loss was to Drake in their last home game in front of 7,700 fans. The Braves are the youngest team in the Missouri Valley, but having a fine season. Illinois State is last in the league in scoring defense and turnover margin. While there is no value in the line, will the solid late season situations play out to produce a win and profit?

Nevada at Boise State (-3). Marquee match-up for first place in Mountain West. Top-2 teams had quite a battle in Reno on Jan. 20 when the Wolf Pack prevailed 74-68 as a 6 or 6.5-point favorite. We got the best of the betting line and cashed with the Broncos, who never trailed by more than six points. Now Boise State plays with redemption on their home court where they stand 13-0 at Taco Bell Arena. Will it be burritos for all fans in section 12 behind the basket? Broncos just 1 of 11 teams left in the nation that are undefeated on their home court. Broncos lead the league in rebounding margin and both teams top-3 in three-point defense, and each team shoots a strong 39% from beyond the arc.

Georgia at Florida (-10). Florida lost at Georgia 72-60 on Jan. 30 with Bulldogs taking 22 foul shots to just six for Gators.

Other games Feb. 14 and ATS info of interest.

Iowa at Michigan (-11). Hawkeyes are 1-6 SU/ATS on the Big Ten road with every loss by at least 13 points.

Mississippi State at Vanderbilt (-2.5). Miss State is a defensive dominator but just 1-6 on the road. Bulldogs (18-7/6-6) still pushing for NCAA bid and beat last place Vanderbilt 80-62 Jan.  16. Mississippi State on a 4-1 SU/5-0 ATS run with lone loss in OT at Missouri Feb. 10. Sweep.