College Basketball Betting and Situational Handicapping with Analysis for Feb. 15

College Basketball Situational Betting Feb. 15

My recent article on late season situational handicapping has gained more interest, especially after the Feb. 14 games in which I provided game analysis and insight to support the situations. I outlined 6 games with analysis, and faded one of the situations on Florida State, and Clemson (+4.5) never trailed until overtime before falling 81-79. Tough loss for the Tigers, but a winner in the pocketbook at the sports book as we provided reasons to support Clemson despite the situational support for Florida State. It was a strong night for us, as we did not play Boise State in the situation noted, or Florida laying an inflated price, but had close ATS winners on Indiana, Bradley and chipped-in a few other close ATS winners on Michigan and Mississippi State (+2.5), who also suffered a heart-wrenching 81-80 loss at the buzzer on a 3-pointer by Vanderbilt. The excitement of college basketball continues down the stretch with a push for conference titles, upcoming conference tournaments and post season play including the big dance and NCAA Tournament.

Despite a solid night of winners, which included the Providence (+10) upset of #3 Villanova 76-71, we note that many other games were close calls that landed within 5 points of the line. Clemson, Indiana, Bradley, Michigan and Mississippi State were five close ATS winners, and 13 of the 35 games on Feb. 14 landed within 5 points of the betting line with five of them within 1 point of the line. That’s slightly below the season average, as annually near 40-42% of college basketball results land within 5 points of the line nearly every season. On Feb. 13, it was 53% as 12-of-23 games landed within 5 points of the line, and more late season games are landing closer to the betting line that before the New Year.

That’s why we provide additional insight and profiles with situational handicapping that is another way to evaluate the games and utilize motivation later in the season.

Thursday’s card has 53 games and we’ve noted the situations again along with some analysis and stats for selected games on Feb. 15.  

• Winning teams playing at home with revenge

Drexel at Northeastern (-10.5). Northeastern (17-9) is still in the chase for a Colonial Conference crown, as the Huskies are 10-4 in league play and just one game behind Colonial leader Charleston with four games remaining. Northeastern also lost to Drexel 68-67 on Jan.26 on a last-second free throw following a missed free throw and foul on the Huskies. The Huskies blew a 5-point lead late and did not score a point in the final 2:20. Now back in Boston where the Huskies are 9-2 on their home court, Northeastern will get their revenge, and it’s just a matter of by how big a margin. Drexel (11-16/5-9) is 2-9 on the road and was just crushed by league-leader Charleston 89-67. The Dragons allow a league-worst 84 points per game while NE leads the Colonial in scoring margin (+6.3). Northeastern is shooting 50% FG in league play and nearly 40% from the arc, and the Huskies are also No. 2 in assists, steals, and hold a rebounding margin edge of +4 per game over Drexel. Add in the Dragons dreadful defense allowing 49% shooting, and the likely absence of senior forward Austin Williams (9 PPG, 9 RPG) with a lower leg injury which caused him to miss last game, and the Huskies can cover this by halftime and coast to a double-digit victory if they come to play. The situation and urgency suggests they will. Note also another rare situation that I provided in the situational handicapping article could apply here pending line parameters. Teams playing with same season revenge for a loss as favorite of 7 or more points are a nearly 70% ATS play. Northeastern opened a 7.5-point favorite at Drexel and closed 6 at many sportsbooks.

Cincinnati at Houston (+3.5). A marquee match-up of the night in the American Athletic Conference has league-leader and No. 5-ranked Cincinnati (23-2) trying to remain undefeated (12-0) in league play. Houston (19-5) is tied for 2nd in the AAC at 9-3 following their 31-point blowout win over Tulane Sunday which followed three days of practice that coach Sampson called the team’s best of the season. The players were quoted as saying they got ‘payback’ for an earlier loss to Tulane, and now the Cougars will by sky high as they try for another payback against league-leader and defensive dominator Cincinnati. The Cougars are also strong on defense, ranking top-25 in the country in adjusted efficiency, and top-10 in effective FG percentage and 2-point FG defense. The Cougars are 12-0 at home and one of just 10 teams in the country to remain undefeated on their home court. Houston lost 80-70 at Cincinnati on Jan. 31, setting up this quick turnaround redemption rematch.

Temple at Wichita State (-11.5). Wichita State was shocked at Temple 81-79 in overtime Feb. 1 after blowing a 12-point halftime lead. But the Shockers are still 4-1 SU/ATS in their last five games, and that 79-points in a losing effort was their lowest-scoring output in the last five games. Not only does elite coach Gregg Marshall have the Shockers defense rounding into form nearing defensive dominator status, but the offense ranks top-15 in adjusted efficiency and won’t let up in this redemption rematch. Note again that Wichita State was a 7-5-point road favorite in the game at Temple, setting up the near 70% ATS situation – Teams playing with same season revenge for a loss as favorite of 7 or more points. Lay it if you play it.  

Arizona at Arizona State (+1). Sun Devils started the season 12-0 and then traveled 110 miles down the I-10 freeway to Tucson where they suffered their first loss of the season to state rival Arizona 84-78 on Dec. 30. Arizona State (19-6/7-6) has won three games in a row including a pair of high-scoring home wins in their last two contests over USC and UCLA. League-leader Arizona (10-3) was off back-to-back losses (fit profile below) when they beat USC last game 81-67 as a 6.5-point favorite. This will be another fiercely-fought contest and the ‘Cats may succumb to the Devil in this redemption rematch.

Other winning teams at home that fit the profile playing with revenge:

William and Mary at Hofstra (-5). Will Hofstra play with Pride following their 20-point road loss last game at NC-Wilmington as a 3-point favorite? Hofstra lost 90-87 at Bill & Mary Dec. 30.

Oregon State at UCLA (-8.5). Bruins opened a 3-point favorite at Betonline when the teams met in Corvallis on Jan. 18. The Beavers took money, bet down to pick ‘em and then beat the Bruins 69-63.  

St. Mary’s at San Francisco (+9.5). Big effort expected by the Dons (14-13/6-8), who were buried by co-league leader St. Mary’s 79-43 on Feb. 1. San Francisco just missed road win at BYU last game losing in overtime as 10-point puppy. Like the Providence (+10) win over #3 Villanova we noted on Feb. 14, this should be ‘Dog or pass as situational handicapping applies.

• Winning teams playing on their home court off back-to-back losses.

Oregon at USC (-5) Trojans (8-5) have stumbled losing 3-straight, all on the road and now just a half game in front of Oregon in the Pac-12. Bounce-back is expected against well-coached Ducks team who the Trojans beat in Eugene 75-70 on Jan. 18.  

One other game with the following situation noted in other analysis.

Teams playing with same season revenge for a loss as favorite of 7 or more points are near a 70% ATS play.

Ohio State at Penn State (-1). Winning on the road is clearly difficult. As how else can you explain first place and top-10 Ohio State (13-1) being a ‘Dog to No. 90 RPI Penn State (18-9/8-6)? Nittany Lions stole one in Columbus Jan. 25, beating the Buckeye’s 82-79 as a 9.5-point underdog. They shot lights out 58% FG and a sizzling 11/14 from behind the arc. They won’t repeat those shooting numbers in the rematch, but Penn State needs wins as the Nittany Lions are on the outside looking in at the NCAA Tournament, and finish with tough games against OSU and Michigan and on the road at Purdue and Nebraska. Did you know that Ohio State is the only team in the country that is unbeaten on the road? Buckeye’s also fit the 70% ATS situational profile above. Tough call?

Best wishes in your pursuit of profit on the college hardwood.