Buffalo Tries to Bull its Way Through Brackets

Can the Buffalo Bulls Whip Another Wildcats Team to Advance to the Sweet Sixteen?

The #13 seed Buffalo Bulls were the talk of the NCAA Tournament Thursday night after they whipped the Wildcats of Arizona 89-68 in Boise, Idaho. The Bulls (+9) ran the #4 seed Wildcats off the floor, busting brackets against an Arizona team that many thought could make a run to the Final Four with their NBA caliber players and talent (18% of 7 million CBS Sportsline brackets had Arizona in the Final Four and 92% beating Buffalo).

Just one day later on Friday, #13 seed Marshall matched Buffalo with an upset as a bigger underdog (+12′) against #4 Wichita State. Marshall gets the match-up they hoped for Sunday as they will play big brother West Virginia in a state rivalry round of 32 contest. But while Marshall is very likely to get beat, Buffalo has a solid shot to March on and continue the tournament madness.

March Madness will never be the same after the first-ever #16 seed pulled the stunner and made history when Maryland Baltimore County beat #1 seed Virginia 74-54, changing the NCAA Tournament forever. Some of the worst money-line bets you’ll ever see were made on Virginia, including some clueless Wahoo who bet $1,294 on Virginia money line to win $12.84 at William Hill. That’s risking nearly $1,300 to win $13 dollars. No, you hadn’t seen it all even with the historic upset.

Back to Buffalo and the Bulls, who will now try to tame their second Wildcats team in two days. Buffalo is a 6-point underdog in Las Vegas and at and many leading online sportsbooks.

Buffalo Bulls           (+6)
Kentucky Wildcats (-6)
Total: 156

Buffalo won the MAC East with a 15-3 record while going 23-8 this season. Five of those losses were to NCAA tournament teams Cincinnati, Syracuse, St. Bonaventure, South Dakota State and Texas A&M. They lost those games by an average of 11 points per game, so you can perhaps understand why many thought Buffalo would lose again facing perhaps the best of the bunch in Arizona. However, hidden in those losses is that three of them were played without 15 PPG scorer West Clark, a SEC transfer from Missouri. The other two were true road games. But in a one and done format at tournament time, we know match-ups and the ability to make plays and succeed with some of the keys to NCAA Tournament success can be the difference between advancing and going home. And it’s a very fine line and same with betting the tournament, as 17 of the 32 contests Thursday and Friday had the final score land within 5-points of the betting line. That’s 53% of the games and many of them were decided by 1-3 points from the line. During the regular season, approx. 40% of the games land within 5-points of the betting line. Many of these NCAA Tournament games are close, and especially against the spread.

Buffalo coach Nate Oats has the Bulls play a 94-foot game with a pace ranking top-15 in the country. The Bulls shoot it well and took the second-most 3-pointers in the MAC while connecting on 37% from the arc. And for a fast-paced team, the Bulls defense is pretty good holding opponents to 42% field goals. Against Arizona the Bulls hit 15-of-30 long range shots while Arizona couldn’t find the basket going 2-of-18 from the arc. Buffalo must now face a very young Kentucky team that holds opponents to just 30% shooting from the 3-point arc to rank top-5 in the country. Kentucky’s stats are solid, but this is still not an experienced or completely cohesive team, and we’ve seen plenty of more talented teams lose and/or fail to put away a lesser opponent.

But in watching Davidson miss many open 3’s making 11-of-33 and coming up short against Kentucky 78-73 despite the KY Wildcats failing to make a 3-pointer (0-of-6, first time in 1047 games without making a 3), it’s a safe bet that Buffalo will be taking their share of 3-point shots. The Bulls average 10 made three-pointers per game, and have experienced players and transfers that are playing with great confidence and energy. Buffalo will be more than ready to run and push the pace. Along with their 85 PPG scoring and shooting ability, the Bulls led the MAC in assist and offensive rebounds and rebounding margin. Kentucky may be able to slow penetration and 3’s a bit better than Arizona, but a big concern in this contest appears to be that Kentucky is now playing its fifth game in nine days having gone through and won the SEC tournament. We saw how that may have affected Virginia in defeat, and feeling here is that the Wildcats will not be sharp and the young ‘Cats could get schooled by this Bulls bunch as well. Kentucky players were commenting how tired they were after the Davidson game having to chase and defend so many 3-point shots and this looks like a game Kentucky players will not be there best.

Kentucky fans did not travel like they usually do, as Boise, Idaho apparently was not to their liking. Perhaps if they knew it was Taco Bell Arena, they might have enjoyed a few burritos and beers while supporting their Kentucky team that has been playing their best basketball. But so too was Virginia and the Cavaliers went 31-2 this season. Kentucky has lost 10 times, and with Buffalo winning Thursday followed by Marshall and MD Baltimore County’s historic upset, it certainly won’t be a surprise if Buffalo wins again.

Take the points and play a smaller percentage on the money line (+210) as the Bulls try to make a historic NCAA Tournament run one game at a time.

Article posted at osga.com.