Betting the Kentucky Derby

Betting the Kentucky Derby – A Look at the Contenders

 

Here’s a link to my preview article with insight and analysis on betting the Kentucky Derby.  A look at the Contenders shows plenty of speed up front including from the morning line favorite California Chrome.  The Kentucky Derby is always a hard race to handicap due to the large field.  An unexpected ride due to traffic troubles is most common, and the 20-horse field ensures difficulty on the dirt. This year, many top 3-year olds have been sidelined due to injury or illness, and that seems to set the stage for this year’s Santa Anita winner California Chrome to come up roses.

California Chrome has too much class for this field to be left out of the money.  However, before you take off the rubber band on this classy California Chrome, know that just 5 betting favorites have won the Kentucky Derby since 1980.  Betting the Kentucky Derby is often about eliminating horses from the equation, and many pros prefer to fade the favorites.  But California Chrome looks like he’ll definitely be in the mix coming down the stretch, and our hope is that Wicked Strong will be the Colt coming on strong and making a move down the lane.  Wicked Strong won the Wood Memorial with a late kick and his rally rewarded his betting backers as a 9-1 choice.  The Colt is maturing and showed solid signs last fall in his development.  He’ll fall behind early out of the #19 post, but anticipate him to use his tactical speed on the backside to position himself for a Wicked Strong kick as they turn for home.  He has the stamina to handle this distance and more, and we’ll also look for speed horse Samraat to also stay in it down the stretch with his speed to hold up.

In the end, I believe California Chrome can handle the important pace that’s sure to be pressing the early leaders, and the seasoning and fitness of this classy California-bred should serve him well.  The question is can he handle the distance, and if he falters, we’re betting it’s Wicked Strong making the late run for the roses.