Betting for Value on Valentines Day

A Guy’s Guide To Bluffing and Betting For Value On Valentine’s Day

A satirical look at how to win big on Valentine’s Day by making the effort and showing your hand with your spouse/friend/lover.

In theory, Valentine’s Day is supposed to be a day to celebrate romantic love with a spouse or significant other. So as the big day arrives, I thought I would chip-in some thoughts and tips on emotions and betting. As a father of three daughters, I’m familiar with the ‘full court press’ and how women and girls negotiate, ‘bluff’ and use their own smarts and game to get ‘value’ and what they want.

As a poker player, sports handicapper and bettor following a successful Super Bowl LVIII and O/U game total winner and 5-of-6 player prop winners, we know it’s tough to beat the odds and the house (V is for Vig too). Having fun and getting a victory on Valentine’s Day is essential if you want to be a winner with your lover and/or friend, so here are some tips and Fairway’s Forecast. Listen up guys. Since most women run the house you live in (or will), today’s the day to reward your spouse/friend/lover. You don’t need to ‘overbet’, just make sure you get involved in the game and are focused and paying attention!

Valentine’s Day generates big spending in the tens of billions of dollars annually in the United States. Those celebrating the holiday said they plan to spend an average nearly $200 in recent years – up from $162 in 2019. Spending is expected to total nearly $26 billion in 2024. From retail sales of candy, jewelry, lingerie, cards, flowers, dinner and other gifts, the heart-filled holiday is a major event, like the recent Super Bowl that attracts massive media and betting interest including proposition wagering. But if you’re betting on a prop on Valentine’s day, it’s best to play the ‘over’ if you want to win her over!

Understand too that I’m a man that has been head-butted, blind-sided and hit with cheap shots by women including an x-wife. It’s no fun or fair to be a victim of nastiness or an unruly referee, but the women often make the rules and arbitrate on the matters arising from the play. Men can get taken to their knees, and while you would like the woman on hers, you must be prepared for ‘bad beats’ and unfortunate results that are not always fair. Just like the sports we watch and wager on at the sportsbooks (Forbes feature), where the odds may not always be in your favor.

Whether married or single, take this advice and play these hands on Valentine’s Day as I chip-in a semi-bluff or two and additional insight with Fairway’s facts and formula for fun and a victory on Valentine’s Day. Just remember to not let your emotions get the best of you!

1. Bet for Value – Maximize Profit. Know the ‘value’ of your hand (partner) and play your cards right while understanding the situation and position you are in (don’t get caught thinking too far ahead or fantasizing). Pay attention and you’ll win more hands and the heart of your partner. Bring home flowers rather than chocolate. Know her favorite foods, restaurants and places to shop. Pick up and clean up at the house. If time, take her car for a wash and fill up the gas tank. This is not the time to ‘bluff’ or ‘slow play’ You must be aggressive, bet and take control. It’s okay to show a little emotion here.

2. Look for Tells – What she likes to do. She has shown her hand at times along the way. Probably relayed a few plays from the sidelines to you. If you haven’t been paying attention and listening, you’re in trouble. If you’re not a poker player, you’ll know about going broke soon enough if you can’t heed this advice.

3. Buy the Pot – Bluffing to win the hand. This is a guys best bet, if you have more money than creativity. If you spend more time staring at her than talking with her, you better ante up. Jewelry is preferred, but do not buy a ring! Don’t overbet; a necklace is fine, and hopefully you know whether she likes gold or silver. Lingerie? Sure, but know her size and you had better be prepared ahead. Foreplay is good in this situation. Can’t go wrong with jewelry or special selection? Believe me, you can and you won’t get away with a ‘semi-bluff’.

4. Cracking the Hand – Beating a big hand. This isn’t the day to offer her a new set of enhancements (pocket ‘Aces’). Nor is it the time to fumble or have a turnover. But you need to come up big here by showing her you care. Make her feel important as the most important person on your team. Show some emotion. Buying a gift? Think ahead and shop for value – buy something on sale! Take her to dinner and offer some wine. If you have not already cleaned up something at the house, take a shot in the bathroom and kitchen rather than thinking you’re ‘owed’ one in the bedroom because you suffered a ‘bad beat’ recently.

5: Proposition Betting – Bet the Yes! This is not the time to bet the coin flip prop, or make an ‘under’ bet. You want her to say yes, and increase your chance of return love. So look for more value props on yes, ‘over’ and know that cash is king. Will she prefer cash over candy? Yes -400, No +340. Time to lay some juice for the sure thing, and not be an underdog. Music and money for your honey. Gift cards are acceptable, but you must know what she likes!

6: Be A Winner – You don’t have to make a big bet to be a winner (it always depends). But do open your wallet, and your heart and show your support to your girlfriend, spouse, friend and lover. It should make her happy. If not, you might have a loser on your hands. Call other loved ones including your mother and daughters. Send a cute Valentine’s text with a heart or flower. Add a short video for more creativity. Tell them you care about them and show some genuine heart. Fire a few chips at the pot, and even if they come ‘over the top’ and force you to play for more, you’ll leave a winner knowing you paid attention to them and showed plenty of heart.

You can bet on it.

Good luck as you shoot for Love and Victory on Valentines Day.


Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay