Betting on the Browns – To Win!

Week 14 is Best Shot for Winless Browns to Win Against the Packers

The weeks must get longer and longer for the Cleveland Browns. The laughingstock of the league, the Browns remain winless (0-12) this season and bettors continue to avoid the Browns after going 1-15 last year. The Browns are the biggest turkey of them all, or maybe that’s their head coach Hue Jackson, who is leading the bad news Browns to historical records. After losing to the Jacksonville Jaguars 19-7 on Nov. 19, the Browns hit a new NFL record for the worst 47 game streak in NFL history. You can add two more losses to that 4-43 record after Cleveland hit the road for their two most recent losses at Cincinnati and Los Angeles against the Chargers.

Last season I wrote an article on the psychology of a bettor, and analyzed some of the approaches of betting on bad teams. While that article focused on college football, much of the psychology of betting applies to the NFL as well. Many bettors can’t put their money on ‘bad’ teams. They can’t stand the thought of betting on a bad team and seeing them getting blown out.

Blowouts have been common in Browns games the past two seasons. This year Cleveland is 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS. Eight of their losses have been by 9 or more points, which is considered not competitive in the NFL. Last year the Browns waited until week 16 the day before Christmas to give their diehard fans their first and only victory of the season, finishing 1-15 SU with just three point spread wins. That’s remarkable, and disgraceful all together, if that’s possible.

And here are some additional amazing stats on the bumbling Browns.

• Elias Sports Bureau reports the Browns have lost 29 consecutive Sunday games … the most in NFL history. Their last overall victory was on Christmas Eve in 2016. That was a Saturday. Their last win on a Sunday was Dec. 13, 2015, which was two months after their 2nd win that season.
• Since the start of the 2014 season, the Browns have scored 13 or fewer points in 27-of-60 games (45%).
• DeShone Kizer’s is now 0-11 as a starter with the Browns. He was 4-8 as a starter at Notre Dame.
• Kizer was under center 10 times, and only threw the ball once last week vs the LA Chargers.  In 11 NFL games, he is 20-of-45 passing (44%) with 1 touchdown and 6 interceptions.  He’s thrown 9 interceptions in 300 passes from the shotgun (profootballreference.com).

If you read my Thanksgiving article on the Browns being the biggest turkey, then you know my thoughts on QB DeShone Kizer. The guy should be holding a clipboard and running the scout team, not starting at QB for an NFL team.

And if you read my articles and weekly underdog picks weeks 1-6 before I went on the DL for a break, then you know I made a case weekly for the underdogs, and went 16-8 ATS over that stretch.

Well, after staying off the Browns week after week like most bettors, mostly due to QB Kizer and their coaches ridiculous decision to keep him as the starter while completely ruining the season for the rest of the starters and team, I’m getting my bag of balls ready to take a shot with the Browns this week over Green Bay. We’ve played the Browns at the leading sportsbooks taking 3.5 points. That includes at top online and offshore shops BookMaker and 5 Dimes, and in Las Vegas at South Point, Stations, William Hill and MGM properties.

 

Sunday, Dec. 10

Green Bay Packers (-3.5)

Cleveland Browns (+3.5)

Total: 40.5

If you wait and take +3 on the Browns, that will have to do, but also place a portion of your bet on the money line, Browns +160. Add a little more on your teaser taking +9 or more on Cleveland and finding another team to your liking. If you have bigger balls, consider the 49ers again this week +9 on your teaser play at Houston. We cashed in with the 49ers last week as ‘Dog at Chicago, a game in which San Fran dominated the stats with nearly 400 yards to less than 150 for the Bears. The 49ers won at the wire 15-14 as new QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked every bit the part of a poised and polished QB that can lead the 49ers back from the bottom in the years ahead. The week before we played the 49ers and lost as poor QB play from another rookie (Beathard) was costly in defeat and showed the importance of having at least a capable and competent starting QB in the NFL.

This week’s match-up between the Browns and Packers has neither of those, and while it’s not healthy or advised to bet on the Browns weekly with Kiser, it’s also a bad bet to rely on Brett Hundley to lead a team to victory on the road. Especially with a poor-ranking defense, despite the return of playmakers Kenny Clark and Clay Matthews last week. But they’re still not fully healthy or at their best, and laying these points with a sub-par Packers team on the road is a sure fire way to becoming like the Browns – a turkey that gets roasted.

This week we think Hundley will be in the giving spirit of Christmas and gift wrap the Browns their first win of the season. He passed for 74 yards with an interception last week as the Packers stole a home win in overtime against the lowly Tampa Bay Bucs, who gained nearly 400 balanced yards and out-gained the Pack by more than 100 yards. The run-heavy approach won’t work this week against the Browns, who surprisingly to most have the league’s No. 1 rush defense in yards-per-attempt at 3.3. The Packers are 0-3 this season against other strong run defenses averaging just 3.1 yards per rush against the Vikings, Ravens and Steelers in defeat. It’s hard to figure out what Packers coach McCarthy wants to do on offense without QB Rodgers, who could return next week for a final playoff push. That’s if they beat the Browns, which we don’t think happens this week. Following a shutout home loss three weeks ago to the Ravens 23-0 in which the Packers had 265 yards offense and Hundley threw 3 INT’s, McCarthy opened up the playbook and Hundley had his best game as a pro at Pittsburgh. But McCarthy knew the Packers would not run the ball well against Pittsburgh, and that Green Bay had to pass more to keep pace with Big Ben and the Steelers offensive attack. The Packers were still outgained badly 462-307 in a misleading 31-28 defeat.

Going back to week 5 when the Browns hosted the Jets and we made our case against Cleveland in our weekly Fairway Forecast, Cleveland completely out-played the Jets and still lost 17-14. The Browns outgained the Jets 419-212 and dominated all the stats including rushing and point of attack play. But Kizer was a disaster and miserable again with a QB rating of 38 and an INT before getting yanked for Kevin Hogan, who tried to save the day passing for 194 yards and completing 16 of 19 attempts. Two weeks later at home, the Browns lost to Tennessee in overtime 12-9 as neither team found the end zone. This time both Kizer and Cody Kessler combined for 3 INTs and a QB rating under 50 in another disastrous QB performance.

The quarterback play around the league is bad on many teams, and really bad, or even worse in Cleveland. Look at the bottom teams and you’ll see mostly terrible QB play from rookies or inexperienced quarterbacks in Cleveland, Denver, Indianapolis (Luck out), Houston (Watson out), Miami, San Francisco (Beathard), Chicago, Green Bay (Hundley), Arizona (Gabbert), Tampa Bay and NY Giants (Smith). It’s those teams that take the fewest bets each week at the sportsbooks, and only one of them has a winning point spread record (Houston), but not with Watson out of the lineup. Every one of those teams has a losing record, and a look at the turnover stats shows the Cleveland Browns are dead last in turnover margin (-19) while giving the ball away a league-leading 30 times (Kizer 19 times with disastrous 58.1 QB rating).

Even with clueless Kizer at QB, the Browns should have more balance and success against a poor Packers defense and secondary that ranks in the bottom tier of the league. The Browns faced top-5 pass defenses the last two games against the Jaguars and Chargers, and now get their best chance at victory against the porous Packers defense with their own poor passer and incompetent quarterback.

The situation, opponent and point spread suggests the Browns are the right play this week, which most bettors can’t fathom or don’t have the balls to bet. The Browns appear determined to show some progress and fight to the finish to avoid the embarrassment of a winless season. That’s tough to believe for many bettors, who prefer to bet on the pretty Patriots and powerful Philly, who stumbled badly on the road last week with the Eagles taking the most betting action of the week. The return of top receiver Josh Gordon last week gives the young Brown’s team a big boost, and WR Corey Coleman returned three weeks ago to provide a spark. Gordon had 85 yards on just four receptions against the Chargers, and the Packers allow more than 8.6 yards per pass attempt to wide receivers to rank No. 31 in the league. Expect more this week from the Browns receivers and with a balanced attack I project the Browns to out-gain the Packers by a decent margin. Special teams are both sub-par, which will match the weather in Cleveland this week with near freezing temperatures and winds above 15 MPH. Now we just need some decent play calling, execution and for QB Kizer to minimize mistakes and turnovers.

With bettors avoiding the Browns, and the National Finals Rodeo starting this weekend in Las Vegas, we’ll call this the ‘Lone Ranger’ play of the week, as the Browns show a Bull Rider mentality and go ‘all-in’ at the Dawg Pound knowing this is an opponent they can definitely beat to get their first victory of the season. You can bet on it.

Article posted at osga.com.