Betting the Biggest Games – Alabama vs Florida State

Dominating Defenses Alabama vs Florida State in Top-5 Opening Week Showdown

The marquee match-up of the week features #1 Alabama vs. #3 Florida State in the Saturday night special on ABC. The game kicks off at 8:00 pm ET from the Mercedez-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Ga.

Saturday, Sept. 2, 2017
206 Alabama Crimson Tide   (-7)
205 Florida State Seminoles  (+7)
Total 49.5
Field: Grass
TV: ABC

This game has been evaluated and scrutinized by nearly every media outlet. Handicappers have made some points, and I’ve provided some of my season thoughts on Alabama in their pursuit of a national title at very low odds. A change at offensive coordinator and adjustment to new plays and schemes may be more difficult to execute in an opener against a top-tier FSU defense. Alabama does return a loaded offensive backfield at QB and RB, but the ‘Tide also lost a record 10 players to the NFL draft.

Despite some injuries in the Florida State secondary that will leave a few sidelined affecting depth, the Seminoles still are loaded with talent to nearly match Alabama. An experienced secondary with speed led by CB Tarvarus McFadden and exceptional safety Derwin James slows even the best passing teams this season. James returns from a knee injury for FSU, and he’s a supremely talented multi-positional player who will be eyeing ‘Bama QB Jalen Hurts, who gets a supreme test again after struggling in the national title game (13/31 passing 131 yds & 61 rush) vs. Clemson’s strong defense. Need I remind you that ‘Bama’s offense and Hurts was slowed against another strong defense later last season when they scored 10 points in the fourth quarter to win at LSU, 10-0. Now Alabama incorporates parts of a new offensive system. Expect Crimson Tide RB Bo Scarbrough to carry a big load, but Florida State is also strong along the front seven.

The left side of FSU’s offensive line is new, and the Seminoles front wall will need to be stout to handle and hold up against Alabama’s exceptional front seven. Cam Akers was the top-rated RB recruit in the country, and he’ll be thrown into the fire against ‘Bama’s best along with veteran RB Jacques Patrick.

Florida State QB Deondre Francois had a solid but somewhat uneven debut season last year passing for over 3,300 yards. He’s not the running threat of his counterpart Hurts, but Francois is also without some of his star receivers from last year and ‘Bama’s secondary is supreme.

I prefer the Florida State side in this match-up, and it’s really a must take and percentage, value play with 7 points supported by a talented, top-tier defense in a game I anticipate to have less scoring than expected. If you can determine that a TD or more favorite will score less than 28 points in a college football game, then the ‘Dog has a very high probability to cover if the favorite fails to reach that scoring mark. In this case, The Seminoles are tough, talented and can win outright with their own top-5 defense. Florida State coach Jimbo Fisher is also 9-1 SU vs. SEC teams, although this is his first time facing Alabama. The Crimson Tide’s reputation is clearly reflected in this betting line, as is coach Saban’s 8-1 ATS mark in season openers including 5-0 SU/4-1 ATS in their last five on neutral sites. But FSU is 8-0 SU in neutral site openers since 1991, and now it’s two of the best defenses in the country in an opener where the offenses may be a little behind and having to play catch-up vs. the speed and strength of dominating defenses. With limited review of special teams, know that Florida State rates stronger and also has one of the best kickers in the country in Ricky Aguayo.

I feel the stronger play may be under the total, although the line has moved with ‘under’ taking money. A pair of 2nd year signal callers with less than premier passing skills sets up more running and less big plays on offense as the QB’s deal with supreme defensive pressure. Turnovers and mistakes are always a concern when taking on a top-tier, dominating defense, and that can turn field position and result in some unexpected scoring. But unless one of these teams surprises us with an up-tempo or no-huddle attack, this game sets up to be lower scoring as defenses rise to the occasion.

Check out the leading online sportsbooks, including those with reduced juice, along with this article posted at osga.com.