BCS Championship Game – Florida State vs. Auburn

Handicapping the match-ups and evaluating stats in the BCS Championship Game

Florida State ( 13-0 SU / 11-2 ATS ) vs. Auburn ( 12-1 SU / 11-2 ATS )

Line:  Florida State -10 l Total: 68

Plenty of articles and previews of the Florida State vs. Auburn National Championship game, but here is some additional insight and statistical information for your review.

Florida State Seminoles:

The Seminoles beat 13 of 14 opponents by 27 or more points, and held all but 1 team to 17 points or less with an average opponents score of 11 PPG.  They allowed just 268 YPG, 4.0 yards per play and 17 total TDs.  This is not only a dominant defense loaded with NFL caliber players, but over half of the TDs allowed came in the second-half of games when Florida State was already dominating the game and ahead by margin, and some of those TDs came with backups in the game.   Florida State is the only team in the country to rank in the top 3 in fewest rushing, passing, and total yards and they forced opponents into 88 three-and-outs this season; most in the country.

On offense, FSU average 53 PPG and is also loaded with NFL caliber players and has the Heisman Trophy winner at quarterback in Jameis Winston.  The offense averaged nearly 8 yards per play! and were the only team in the country to out-yardage every team they played.  The Seminoles set a school and ACC record with 40 rushing TDs

Special teams play is very strong for Florida State and another advantage over Auburn.

Head Coach Jimbo Fisher is 3-0 SU/ATS in Bowl games and two of his new defensive coaches were on the Alabama staff that dominated LSU in the 2011 National Title game.

Auburn Tigers:

Auburn was 0-8 in the SEC last season and now plays for the national title a year later.

The Tigers defense finished #12 in the SEC allowing 423 YPG to rank #90 in the nation.   They did hold well in the red zone ranking #8 in the nation.  While the offense led the nation with 335 rushing YPG, they now must face the strongest defense of the season in Florida State.  A close examination of their schedule and results shows not only some very fortunate wins, but six close wins by 8 or less points plus a 14-point loss at LSU.  In none of those games did Auburn out-gain their opponent by more than 50 yards.

Auburn averaged 40 PPG despite a pass offense that averaged just 170 YPG and had the fewest pass attempts in the SEC.  Once behind and by margin to Florida State, this one-dimensional offense is likely to struggle to catch up.

Head coach Gus Malzahn was the offensive coordinator on the 2010 Auburn Championship team.  His spread offense includes packaged option plays with multiple choices to run or throw.  But the speed of the FSU defense and pressure on QB Nick Marshall will prove to be too much to overcome.

The SEC has won the last 7 BCS Championship Games, but Florida State is one of just three teams in NCAA football history to win 8-straight games by 27 or more points.  The other two went on to win and cover in the national championship game; the 2011 Alabama Crimson Tide and 2008 Florida Gators.