Baseball Betting Options – 5 Inning Line

Pitchers Duel, Totals and 5-Inning Line in Baseball Betting

Tuesday we had a winner and a loser, as Major League Baseball can be a cruel sports when betting the bases.  I provided analysis of the Boston Red Sox and Minnesota Twins series opener at Target field for Offshore Gaming Association. The match-up featured a pair of pitchers that are legitimate aces, and the Red Sox were laying a big road price, bet up from -170 with lefty Chris Sale sporting sensational season-to-date numbers for the AL-leading Red Sox, who led the majors with 49 wins. Sale sported a 5-to-1 strikeout to walk ratio with 129 Ks in 95 innings entering the contest, along with a stellar 2.75 ERA, .192 batting average against (BAA), 2.79 FIP and 0.97 WHIP. His hard/soft contact by hitters is the best in baseball.

The Twins countered with Jose Berrios, who’s developed into a true ace as his skills have come together to produce strong stats and especially in his last six starts while dominant at home this season. Berrios has the best weighted on-base percentage, and he was in great form with his last six starts showing a 2.47 ERA. His 3.33 FIP with 91 K’s and just 15 walks allowed is elite, and his 3.4 ERA was supported by a 3.5 xERA. A .211 BAA and 0.95 WHIP completed his strong profile and status as a top-tier starter with his home dominance shining through with a 36% strikeout rate.

I wrote up and wagered on the game the night before, and the total was 7.5. By Tuesday morning, it was 7 across the board at leading online sportsbooks, and most Las Vegas sportsbooks.  When you encounter line and odds moves that are not favorable, you must adjusted your wagering amount or be willing to pass. In baseball, you have additional options, and that’s the beauty of betting baseball. Team totals, 5-inning lines, in-game wagering are just some of the options. The 5-inning line held steady at 3.5 (-110) in the Red Sox / Twins game, and we anticipated a pitchers duel and got it. Berrios matched Sale through 5-shutout innings and the Twins and Red Sox were scoreless (0-0) through 5 innings. Sale had a perfect game through 4 2/3 innings until an infield single broke-up the no-hit bid.

Our 5-inning bet was a winner in the books, and even after a 2-out solo HR by Boston in the 6th followed by a hit batter and 2-run double by the Twins in the bottom of the 6th, the total game wager was still rock solid with the Twins leading 2-1 going to the 8th inning. Both starters were now out of the game, unfortunately, and Boston tied the game on a 2-out single. This is where Boston’s bullpen surprisingly blew up, and why 5-inning bets are such a viable option and getting the best game numbers and totals are important, as this game could have easily landed 7 instead of 8 in the Twins 6-2 win. Boston’s bullpen walked the leadoff man, hit the next batter before a 1-out double scored two as the center fielder made an error. A triple followed and the total was toast.

The Twins won as a big ‘Dog, and many bettors likely lost as they love to bet the best teams, pitchers, favorites and even run lines. But perhaps a lesson learned is to not only look at other wagering options like the 5-inning line when you’re confident in a pair of pitchers, but also team totals and to take the extra value with a team that also tosses out an elite starting pitcher at home as a ‘Dog. I avoid laying big prices in baseball, and instead will look to play run lines if I like an elite starter (like Sale), but must still have an opponent with a sub-par starter and/or the team really struggling. I also don’t bet against elite-level starters much, yet they are often inflated favorites. Today’s modern MLB has many sub-par and poor starting pitchers, and there are many options to fade poor pitchers, bet against or look at wagering on totals with more scoring.

We’ll address run line betting and other wagering options another time, but know your opportunities and options when betting baseball, and dig deeper into stats that matter instead of those just on the surface. You’ll not only learn more about a player, pitcher, team, form and find value more often, but set yourself up for future wagers and match-ups of interest.

You can bet on it.

Article and game analysis posted at osga.com.