1346 Results for author: FairwayJay
Top Contenders for the College Football Playoff into November
As the calendar turns to November next week, many teams are pushing for a bowl bid and some conference contenders are looking to secure a division title and a shot at their conference crown in the conference championship game. Struggling teams still have a chance to 'save' their season by winning a big rivalry game, and others can play spoiler and knock a playoff contender out of the conference and national title chase.
The ...
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NFL Week 7 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats
Some poor offensive showings and games were clearly evident in Week 7 with the first three games on the card leading the way. The Bears were an embarrassment to Chicago and their betting backers on Thursday night losing at rival Green Bay 26-10 with just 13 first downs, 45 plays and 189 total yards at 4.2 yards per play. Jay Cutler returns at QB for their week 8 Monday night match-up at home against the Vikings and their league-best defense. Another ...
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Evaluating Teams And Late Season Bye Weeks
Here is the list of college football teams with late October and November bye weeks along with their opponents before and after the bye week. In college football, this is a real benefit to the rested and prepared team and especially later in the season. When playing at home it becomes an even greater advantage.
In past seasons I’ve used a base situation favoring the home team off a bye with better than 65% success Against-the-Spread (ATS). ...
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NFL Week 6 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats
It was a strange week from a statistical perspective as you’ll see below in some of my analysis and charts. There were some huge rushing results with expected win/covers, but some very poor running games by teams that got the money late like the Browns, Giants and Saints. And the New York Giants became the first team this season to have a minus (-3) or greater turnover margin and get the point spread cover (1-16 ATS this year). And it was just the ...
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Isolating the Powerful, Balanced and Efficient Offenses in College Football
As we make the turn past the halfway point of the college football regular season, we can now utilize some stronger statistical numbers in evaluating teams and match-ups. All BCS conference teams have now played 2-4 conferences games to give us realistic projections on their performance vs. similar opponents. No more “false favorites” who padded their numbers vs. a soft non-conference schedule.
I ...
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College Football Pac-12 Plays Part of Saturday Doubleheader
The parity of the Pac-12 will cost the conference a shot at the college football playoff unless Washington (6-0) can run the table. They have a shot following their bye this week with key games at home and a season finale at state-rival Washington State.
We’ll analyze the Washing State Cougars game as they try to bury the Bruins on Saturday, Oct. 15. UCLA visits Pullman to try and slow the Puma’s and the Bruins defense will ...
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NFL Week 5 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats
Week 5 started with an ugly prime time game last Thursday when the Cardinals beat the 49ers in San Francisco 33-21. I highlighted this game in a prime time preview, noting the Cardinals would out-rush the 49ers and a big game was likely for RB David Johnson. Arizona did rush for 172 yards, but their offense was still mostly inefficient with 288 yards and 4.4 yards per play. But the 49ers were an embarrassment on national TV, totaling just 286 yards ...
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NFL Week 4 Handicapping and Analyzing Stats
Week 4 was pretty even across the betting board, as favorites went 8-7 SU and 8-7 ATS. The sports books got hurt in the prime time games, as Thursday, Sunday and Monday night favorites all rolled to easy wins (Bengals, Steelers and Vikings). Home underdogs had their first losing week of the season going 2-3 SU/ATS, and home ‘Dogs are not 13-6-1 ATS this season.
Close Calls and Point Spread Plays of the Week
I had a very good week betting ...
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