Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Golf Odds, Preview, Picks And Props

The Florida Swing continues with another Signature Event at the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 golf tournament at the Bay Hill Club in Orlando. An elite field of 72 golfers shoot for a top prize of $4 million from a $20 million purse. World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler (2022, 2024) a two time winner of Arnies event and No. 2 Rory McIlroy (2016) a winner a decade ago. Russell Henley is the defending champion and currently ranked No. 7 in the world.

See my API tournament preview at Off Shore Gaming Association.

Bay Hill Club

I’ll save some time and repetative review of the course, and you can read my tournament preview of the Arnold Palmer Invitational 2026 Signature Event from last year in Forbes. The Bay Hill Club remains a 7,466 yard par 72 with oversized Bermuda greens and overseed rygrass fairways and rough. Additional views of the course and more on their X feed, @APinv. A hole-by-hole aerial view and strategic overview provides more course insight.

Odds to Win 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational

Leading favorites and contenders golf odds from BetOnline refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live/in-game betting. Odds adjust during and following rounds.

+315 Scottie Scheffler
+900: Rory McIlroy
+1800: Tommy Fleetwood
+2200: Matt Fitzpatrick
+2500: Collin Morikawa
+2800: Xander Schauffele
+3000: Si Woo Kim
+3500: Hideki Matsuyama, Ludvig Aberg
+4500: R. Henley, V. Hovland, H. English,
+4500: C. Young, K. Kitayama, J. Knapp
+5500: Ryan Gerard, Gotterup, N. Hojgaard
+6000: P. Cantlay, R. MacIntyre, S. Burns
+6000: R. Fowler, S. Straka, P. Coody
+6500: Keith Mitchell, Jacob Bridgeman
+7000: J. Rose, B. Griffin, A. Scott, M. McNealy
+8000: Keegan Bradley
+9000: Jordan Spieth, JJ Spaun, Aksha Bhatia
+10000-12500: J. Thomas, A. Noren, C. Conners
J. Day, R. Fox, N. Taylor, S. Stevens, M. Thorbjornsen

72-hole winning score: Over/Under 276.5

Also, Top 10 finishing position odds on leading favorites and contenders include: Scheffler (-250), McIlroy (+100), Fleetwood (+180), Schauffele (+220), Fitzpatrick (+220), Morikawa (+250), Si Woo Kim (+250), Henley (+275), Matsuyama (+275), Young (+285), English (+300), Min Woo Lee (+300), Aberg (+325), and all +350 – Cantlay, MacIntyre, Kitayama, Gerard, Straka, Lowery (+385) and all +400 – Hovland, Griffin, Rose, Scott, Gotterup, McNealy, Burns, Fowler.

Tournament Matchups And Props

Many sportsbooks offer an extensive range of 72-hole head-to-head player tournament matchups each week, along with select round-by-round matchups. Here are some of the notable tournament matchups and players to watch at the 2026 Arnold Palmer Invitational.

Select sportsbooks also allows bettors to wager on matchups, laying or taking 1.5 strokes. That’s what we did on Si Woo Kim at The American Express in his T6 finish after leading into the final round. Farmers Insurance Open matchup winners included Maverick McNealy, who also finished top 10.

Fairway’s Forecast and PGA tournament matchups started the year 3-0 and are now 10-3 following last week’s 4-0 sweep in the Cognizant Classic. You can follow my weekly PGA Tour coverage, updates and picks at BetOnline and Vegas Sports Zone. Majors and Signature Events are also posted here at Off Shore Gaming Association, including The Genesis Invitational, where are tournament matchups went 2-0 including a big ‘Dog winner on McIlroy over Scheffler. Also, OSGA members benefit and enjoy many contest offers from top online sportsbooks including the upcoming college basketball March Madness contests.

– Scheffler (-200) vs. McIlroy (+165)
– Morikawa (-144) vs. Matsuyama (-112)
– Fleetwood (-129) vs. Schauffele (+108)
– Aberg (-110) vs. Lowry (-110)
– Hovland (-115) vs. Knapp (-105)
– Griffin (-110) vs. Min Woo Lee (-110)
– Fitzpatrick (-142) vs. Henley (+118)
– Burns (-125) vs. Rose (+105)
– Fowler (-132) vs. Spieth (-110)
– Berger (-110) vs. Hall (-110)
– Taylor (-112) vs. Noren (-108)
– English (-144) vs. Scott (+120)
– Bradley (-132) vs. Day (+110)
– McNealy (-110) vs. Gerard (-110)
– Si Woo Kim (-140) vs. MacIntyre (+117)
– Kitayama (-115) vs. Gotterup (-105)
– Mitchell (-144) vs. Echavarria (+120)
– Theegala (-117) vs. Thorbjornsen (-103)
– N. Hojgaard (-116) vs. Conners (-104)
– Bhatia (-122) vs. Straka (+102)

Stats

Dating back to the Hero Challenge in December, and the last eight PGA Tour events along with DP World Tour, there are some of the strokes gained stats leaders.

Off the Tee: Scheffler is No. 1 and top 5 include McIlroy and Fleetwood.

Approach: Si Woo Kim is No. 1 and top 5 are Lowry, Hovland, Matsuyama, McIlroy.

Tee to Green: McIlroy and Scheffler are 1-2 followed by Si Woo Kim, Fleetwood, Lowry, Matsuyama, Morikawa, Scott, Cantlay, Gotterup.

Putting: Bridgeman, MacIntyre, Knapp, Scheffler

Around the Green: Matsuyama, Moore, Scheffler, Spaun, Griffin, Hall, Fleetwood, Bradley. Russell Henley led the field in ATG and 3rd in Tee to Green to win last year’s Arnold Palmer. Invitational. In 2024, Scheffler won and was first in T2G, ATG and OTT and 5th in Putting.

The Arnold Palmer Invitational Picks

Fairway’s Favorites: McIlroy, Fitzpatrick, Aberg
Fairway’s Longshots: Hovland, Fowler, Mitchell, Straka
Fairway Fliers: Spieth, Fox, Ford

Top 20: Hovland

Tournament Matchups

– Hovland (-115) over Knapp (-105)

PGA Tournament matchups 10-3 YTD following the years biggest card and 4-0 sweep at the Cognizant Classic.

Notables:

Beyond the elite players and API winners Scheffler and McIlroy, who are also the two leaders in Strokes Gained per round at Bay Hill, here are some other stats and finishes of notable players.

Morikawa – 2 top 10’s in the API including 2nd last year. Winner this year and solid current form.
Fitzpatrick – 6 top 15 finishes in 10 API starts including a 4-year stretch starting in 2019 of 2nd and three top 10s. Top 5 in SG: T2G and Total over his last 36 rounds.
Aberg: 3 top 25 finishes in three API starts.
Spieth: Top 5 in API in 2021 and 2024.
Hovland: Tied for 2nd API in 2022 and top 10 in 2023.
Henley: Winner of API last year and T4 in 2024.
Lowry: 3rd in 2024 and top 10 last year.
Rose: T8 last year, but missed cut and WD previous 5 years API

Check back for additional stats and player profiles as time permits.

Next week it’s The PLAYERS Championship at TPC Sawgrass, where I provided player profiles and notable trends and stats to review from last year’s event. Rory McIlroy is defending champion, and the players will shoot for a huge first place prize of $4.5 million.

Golf Betting Notes and History from FairwayJay

My golf coverage and research includes use and references from sites at Data Golf along with Fantasy National, and others. I gain added information from handicappers, analysts, colleagues and media members while researching course stats and previews with previous weekly coverage in my PGA tournament updates in Forbes. That includes top golf insider Justin Ray Golf, who contributes to PGA Tour (dot com) and The Athletic with insightful stats. The site GolfStats has also has player performance charts and a player competitor tool plus added stats and previews.

I’ve added my own player profiles pieces for select majors and events including 2025 Masters, 2025 Players Championship and trends. You can review those alogn with others from 2024 in Forbes for The Player Championship and Masters top 9 and top 18 golfers plus 12 top golfers at the Open Championship at Royal Troon.