Analysis of a Winning Wager – Utah Utes

NIT Provides more Opportunities for Profit and Utah Utes Win Big over LSU

A losing day to open the NCAA Tournament last Thursday has been followed by 4-straight winning days after Monday’s NIT action and winner on Utah. The Utes jumped out to a big early first quarter lead over LSU 30-11, and then buried the Bayou Bengals 95-71. We posted the game analysis on osga.com (along with losing analysis on Buffalo Sat), and you can read the Utah analysis below.

If you have not been on top of that tournament, the NIT is experimenting with new rules again this year, which includes extending the 3-point line and adding 10 minute quarters instead of two 20 minute halves. In addition, after five team fouls in each quarter, the opponent is granted two free throws. Scoring has increased, which I’m sure the NCAA likes, and in the round of 16 in the NIT, totals went 6-2 OVER. Three of the #1 seeds have been eliminated in the NIT with only St. Mary’s remaining. The Gaels missed out on the NCAA Tournament and were shafted by the NCAA corrupt committee, and St. Mary’s will now host Utah in the NIT quarterfinals with the winner advancing to the NIT Final Four at Madison Square Garden in New York.

The margin of victory has been much larger in the NIT than the NCAA Tournament, and the situational spots and emotional aspects can be much greater with teams having to travel on short notice and rest having had the disappointment of missing the NCAA Tournament fresh in their minds. This year’s opening round of the NIT saw many blowouts again, and favorites went 10-5-1 ATS.

Here is the analysis of the winning wager on Utah in their blowout win, and some of the situations that applied.

Following the opening rounds of March Madness in the NCAA Tournament, we turn our attention back to the National Invitational Tournament (NIT), where selected teams still host games. Sure we note less fans attend these games, including in Utah where less than 4,000 turned out for their opening round NIT win over Cal-Davis. That’s nearly 10,000 less fans than a regular season PAC-12 game at the Huntsman Center in Salt Lake City, but quality coaching and motivation is why Utah coach Krystkowiak is one of the 10 highest paid college basketball coaches in America. Well, plenty of coaches and players are over-paid, and many under-perform, but let’s see if coach K and the Utes can reward their betting backers with some of that money tonight.

LSU (17-15) heads to altitude in Salt Lake City for first time, and Tigers struggles on the road are noted with 0-7 SU/ATS run in final 7 SEC road games with every loss by 6 or more points. LSU allowed nearly 84 PPG in those games, and leading scorer and assist man Tremont Watkins (16 PPG) will play with a mask tonight after having surgery on his nose last week. Another guard, Skyler Mays is a game-time decision with a broken wrist, but did play last game in the win over UL Lafayette at home. But traveling to altitude will be much tougher, and Utah (19-12) is money at home under coach K historically, although they didn’t get the cash in opening NIT game and 10-point win over Cal Davis.

Both leading offshore sportsbooks BookMaker and reduced-juice shop 5Dimes are dealing the following lines on the NIT 2^nd round contest.

LSU +4.5

Utah -4.5

Total 148.5

However, Utah went 6-1 SU and 5-1-1 ATS in final seven PAC-12 home games to close the regular season. No slow start tonight for Utes, who led the PAC-12 in scoring defense (69 PPG) and tied for best FG defense (42%) in league play. Utah can play multiple ways on defense with man-to-man, match-up zone or regular zone.  LSU has struggled with versatile four men all season, and Utah has a good one in Tyler Rawson, who scores 10 PPG, leads team in rebounding (7 RPG) and is second on team in assist. Senior transfer PG Justin Bibbens is super quick, led the Utes in assist and scoring (15 PPG). LSU coach Wade said this about the Utes in preparation, “They don’t compare to anybody that I have seen. There is no easy comparison in the SEC to what they do or how they play.” And playing in altitude will be foreign to the Tigers as well. LSU was picked to finish last in the SEC and performed better than expected with an 8-10 finish. But those road struggles must be noted, as Utah is so strong at home and the Utes also exceeded the pundits PAC-12 predictions finishing tied for 3^rd in what turned out to be a weak year in the PAC-12.

Final situational profiles show that NIT round 2 teams are 11-3 ATS when playing off a spread loss, and PAC 12 teams are on 11-0 ATS run as round 2 favorites in NIT. Go Utes.

Article posted at osga.com.