MLB Handicapping – Analysis of a Winning Wager

Major League Baseball – Analysis of a Winning Wager

We knocked one out of the park Saturday as the Washington Nationals delivered our big ‘Dog 20* Big Bertha Top Play winner for Members. Gio Gonzalez tossed five innings of one-run ball before giving way with a big lead as the Nationals rolled over the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-3 as a good-sized underdog of +135. The Nationals remain in first place in the NL East and Washington is getting healthier into August.

Daily Card Club members enjoyed a 2-1 day which included the Nationals, and Full Card Club members enjoyed a big Saturday and had another strong, profitable week.  I also sent an email Saturday to dozens of past members as a bonus for past business with the Nationals winner and analysis below. In addition, seven (7) Fairway Followers on Twitter took advantage of my tweet and offer and picked up the Nationals winner with analysis. I appreciate the feedback and positive comments.

Many of you follow my analysis of games and upcoming season previews on various sports and gaming sites. I personally bet the White Sox Saturday, as they actually went off as a slight underdog with Chris Sale. I wrote up that game as well for a sports and gaming site. Unfortunately, I also had under the total in Chicago’s 10-3 crushing of Cleveland. The games I write up at other sites are assigned as part of my contract agreement with the publishers and companies.

So while I do my best to provide advance game analysis and insight on a tight schedule, know that some of those games are not part of my betting or client card. Injuries, pitching changes, betting lines or unfavorable match ups are just some of the reasons we may not bet or endorse a game. Likewise, I try to evaluate as many games and situations as possible, and often dig deep into pitching profiles and under the surface stats. Through my research and writing I may be able to uncover some additional solid plays like the Padres Saturday, and other strong value plays like the Nationals along with positive match-up and situations.

We’ll look to carry this over into August MLB and uncover more strong plays of interest. But know that football season and betting on the gridiron begins in the next month and we’ll be ready to provide more winners with insight and analysis that members and other Fairway Followers have come to expect.

Sat., July 25

903    Nationals +135 (Gonzalez)

The Pirates have taken the first two games of the series with the Nats and whacked Max Scherzer for 3 HRs and five runs last night. Pittsburgh is now 56-40 but they will not continue their winning ways at that pace. Pirates 38-year old pitcher A.J. Burnett was belted for six runs and 11 hits with a pair of HRs last time out, and on June 19 he gave up 14 hits and 4 runs to this Nationals team defeat. Now he’s a mid-sized favorite over a better pitcher, Gio Gonzalez.

Gio Gonzalez suffered through some unfortunate luck a few months ago, but his skills remain top notch and his elite ground ball rate is up to 59% with just a 14% fly ball rate. He’s going to shut down the weaker Pirates offense at this park. His sinker is strong and has helped him put up superb stats the past month covering four starts allowing 2, 1, 1 and 0 runs. His ERA over that stretch is 1.59 with an xERA of 2.37. That’s elite. His fastball is in the low 90’s and his swing and miss rate is also elite (11%). Gonzalez and the Nationals are a great value today and also worth a play on the 5 inning line.

Author: FairwayJay is a leading national sports betting analyst, writer, handicapper and sports betting insider providing insight and information you can bet on for nearly two decades from Las Vegas. He chips in additional sports betting coverage and reporting on industry news and events for leading media and sports betting sites and companies. Follow him on X (Twitter): @FairwayJay
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