AFC West Chiefs And Chargers 2024 NFL Schedules, Odds And Betting Preview

Previews and betting tips for the 2024 NFL season – AFC West Chiefs and Chargers

The 2024 NFL season kicks off with a Thursday/Friday doubleheader starting Sept. 5 with the full Week 1 Sunday schedule Sept. 8. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) host the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, Sept. 5 in an AFC playoff rematch with those two teams the AFC favorites to reach Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9, 2025 in New Orleans. Betting preview of the AFC West Chiefs and Chargers, who project as the two stronger teams in the division with higher season wins.

NFL Week 1 Matchups And Odds – My update in Forbes

As training camp and NFLX continues and football and fantasy fans get the juices flowing ahead of the 2024 NFL season, sports bettors are pouring through the teams schedules, rosters, stats, odds, futures and props and making bets at leading online sportsbooks. That includes on the AFC West Chiefs and Chargers as division favorites with two of the elite quarterbacks in the AFC and NFL.

The Chiefs have the highest season win total of all AFC teams and NFC teams.

AFC West – Raiders and Broncos 
AFC East – Bills and Jets
AFC East – Dolphins and Patriots
AFC North – Ravens and Bengals
AFC North – Browns and Steelers
AFC South – Texans and Jaguars
AFC South – Titans and Colts

Football odds from top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting.

Kansas City Chiefs

Season Win Total: 11.5 (Over -130)
Division Odds: -250 / AFC Odds: +325 / Super Bowl Odds: +475
Record Last 2 Years: 11-6, 14-3 and Super Bowl champs 2x
Head Coach: Andy Reid (12th season)

Chiefs Schedule, Odds and Props

Division games and advance point spreads (DraftKings)

Week 4 at LA Chargers (KC -3 / 46)
Week 8 at Las Vegas Raiders (KC -5.5 / 47)
Week 10 Denver Broncos (KC -9 / 46)
Week 13 Las Vegas Raiders (KC -7.5 / 45.5) Fri
Week 14 LA Chargers (KC -6.5 / 44.5)
Week 18 at Denver Broncos (KC -4 / 42.5)

Other Key Games
Week 1 Baltimore Ravens (KC -3 / 46.5)
Week 2 Cincinnati Bengals (KC -3.5 / 49)
Week 7 at San Francisco 49ers (KC +1 / 48)
Week 11 at Buffalo Bills (KC +1 / 48.5)
Week 15 at Cleveland Browns (KC -3 / 46.5)
Week 16 Houston Texans (KC -4.5 / 47)
Week 17 at Pittsburgh Steelers (KC -4 / 42.5) Christmas Day

Bye: Week 6 – The Chiefs have a Super Bowl rematch in Week 7 vs. the San Francisco 49ers following their bye

Home: Denver, Las Vegas, LA Chargers, Baltimore, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Houston
Away: Denver, Las Vegas, LA Chargers, Atlanta, Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Buffalo, San Francisco

Key Player Props (regular season)

QB P. Mahomes – O/U 4300.5 Passing Yards / 33.5 Passing TD’s / 11.5 Interceptions
RB I. Pacheco – O/U 925.5 Rushing Yards / 40.5 Receptions / 7.5 Rush TD
TE T. Kelce – O/U 900.5 Receiving Yards / 89.5 Receptions / 6.5 Rec TD’s
DL C. Jones – O/U 10.5 Sacks

Stats and Notes (check back ahead of season for more betting notes). Handicapping and research of AFC West Chiefs and Chargers includes sources and stats from beat writers, team sites and press notes, bettors and newsletters or betting guides like VSiN, Sharp Football, Playbook, CleveAnalytics, ESPN Stats & Info and more including FairwayJay’s proprietary data base and stats.

The Chiefs have won 8 straight division titles, made the AFC Championship Game 6-straight years and are shooting for the first 3-peat in the Super Bowl era. A team with a win total of 10+ has missed the Playoffs every season since 2000, but I haven’t seen anyone projecting the Chiefs to miss the playoffs this season. The Chiefs +77-point differential was No. 4 in the AFC last season, and they scored just the 8th most points in the AFC with Mahomes at quarterback. In fact, KC went under their game-to-game team total in 76% of their games, highest in the NFL. All that and the Chiefs lost to the Raiders at home over Christmas, and still managed to (get good breaks) and get through the playoffs to win the Super Bowl for the second straight year. The Chiefs scored 29-30 points per game in 2020, 2021 and 2022 (No. 1), and then slipped to No. 15 in 2023 at 21.8 PPG. The Chiefs defense improved to allow just 289.8 yards per game 17.3 ppg to rank No. 2 in both categories last season. Kansas City allowed the 6th lowest EPA in the NFL, 3rd best versus drop backs, despite facing a top-5 toughest schedule. It’s a fine line between winning and losing in the NFL, and battling through injuries and close games. In fact, the Chiefs have ranked top 6 in injury health for three straight years (fewer injuries and adjusted games lost). In the Chiefs’ last seven postseason wins (last two seasons), six have come by one score and four of them by exactly 3 points. The improved defense last season was the difference, and they will be tested from the start in 2024 facing QB’s Lamar Jackson (BAL), Joe Burrow (CIN), Kirk Cousins (ATL) and Justin Herbert (LAC) in their first four games.

Meanwhile, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes ranked last in the league on early downs last season throwing short passes more often – No. 32 in air yards per attempt (5.2), percentage of passes thrown at or behind the line of scrimmage (34%) and passes thrown 20+ yards downfield (6.7%).

Pro Football Focus Offensive Line Rankings Entering 2024 Season (Chiefs No. 7, Chargers No. 12)

Betting: Since becoming the starting quarterback in Kansas City, Patrick Mahomes has a 30-5 record versus division opponents. He’s also 14-1 ATS overall as an underdog. The underdog has won the last 3 meetings SU/ATS between the Chiefs and Ravens (Week 1). teams. The Chiefs play six non-Sunday games in 2024, tied for most in the NFL with the Ravens. With Mahomes and Herbert QB’s, the Under is 3-0 in LAC at KC games (Week 14). The Chiefs are 10-2 vs. the Broncos under QB Mahomes, but KC is 1-4 ATS in the last five meetings (Week 10, 18). Playbook notes that since 2000, NFL teams playing each of their final two games of the regular season on the road are 13-21 SU and 11-23 ATS collectively, including 3-9 ATS when favored in either game (KC favored at PIT and DEN). The Chiefs play five straight games from week 7-11 where they have a +10 cumulative rest advantage during the season versus their opponent. Then a 3-games in 11 days stretch culminating with the Steelers in Pittsburgh on Christmas Day. Andy Reid is 17-2 SU, 12-7 ATS in his career in the regular season coming off a
bye against an opponent who is not (at SF Week 7).

FairwayJay has been a top of the leaderboard point spread prognosticator with 57% ATS success posting his NFL underdog picks weekly the past 7 years. That includes an unmatched 70% season in 2021 going 28-12 ATS. His previous NFL handicapping, strategics and sports betting success included 8 straight winning NFL seasons (57.3% ATS) starting in 2003 while independently documented and a professional handicapper including 52-28 ATS (65%) bursting onto the national scene his rookie year (feature Las Vegas Sun). FairwayJay provided weekly insight on a most popular daily sports betting and handicapping radio show heard in Las Vegas and nationwide on SiriusXM radio.

FairwayJay’s NFL handicapping contest success includes back-t0-back 60% seasons and top 6% finishes in the Westgate SuperContest.

Los Angeles Chargers

Season Win Total: 8.5 (Over -155) – Bet Over
Division Odds: +325 / AFC Odds: +2200 / Super Bowl Odds: +4500
Record Last 2 Years: 5-12, 10-7
Head Coach: Jim Harbaugh (1st year)

Chargers Schedule, Odds and Props

Division games

Week 1 Las Vegas Raiders (LAC -3 / 43.5)
Week 4 Kansas City Chiefs (LAC +3 / 46)
Week 6 at Denver Broncos (LAC -2.5 / 43)
Week 14 at Kansas City (LAC +6.5 / 44.5)
Week 16 Denver Broncos (LAC -4 / 43)
Week 18 at Las Vegas Raiders (LAC -1 / 43.5)

Other Key Games
Week 3 at Pittsburgh Steelers (LAC +2.5 / 42.5)
Week 9 at Cleveland Browns (LAC +3 / 43.5)
Week 11 Cincinnati Bengals (LAC +2 / 45)
Week 12 Baltimore Ravens (LAC +3 / 47) MNF

Bye: Week 5

Home: Denver, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Baltimore, Cincinnati, New Orleans, Tampa Bay, Tennessee
Away: Denver, Kansas City, Las Vegas, Atlanta, Carolina, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, New England, Arizona

Key Player Props

QB J. Herbert – O/U 3600.5 Passing Yards / 21.5 Passing TD’s / 11.5 Interceptions
WR L. McConkey – O/U 775.5 Receiving Yards / 60.5 Receptions / 4.5 Receiving TD’s
DL J. Bosa – O/U 7.5 Sacks / K. Mack – O/U 9.5

Stats and Notes

The Chargers draw a last-place schedule that includes Carolina, Arizona, New England, Tampa Bay and Tennessee (and Denver, Las Vegas). The ‘Bolts are expected to make the biggest jump in the NFL under new coach Jim Harbaugh with a playoff push and a marquee game vs. brother John Harbaugh and the Baltimore Ravens on Monday Night Football Nov. 25. Justin Herbert enters with the most passing yards (17,223) through a quarterback’s first four NFL seasons. He was injured in Week 14 last season, and the Chargers went 5-12 including 0-7 in games decided by 3 points or less – the most underperforming team in the league. Based on 4th quarter win probabilities, the Chargers should have won 8.2 games last season. The 3.2-win gap is tied for the 13th largest of any team since 2000. 12 of those 13 teams increased their wins the next season by an average of three wins. A negative schedule situation for the Chargers this season is that LA plays 6 games vs. teams with extra prep to get ready, and 0 games vs. teams with short prep.

Betting: Since 2001, the Raiders at Chargers games are 19-4 under the total (Week 1). The Chargers are on a 2-8 ATS run at home vs. Chiefs (Week 4). The game total has gone Under in 10 of last 11 games when the Chargers host the Broncos (Week 16). The Chargers are 10-5 ATS as a road underdog under QB Herbert. Leading online sportsbooks are expecting a big jump and improvement for the Chargers in 2024 under new HC Jim Harbaugh. The Chargers have the 2nd highest win total following a season of 5 or less wins. Since 2000, 15 other teams saw a win total of 8 or more following 5 or less wins and only four of the 15 went over their win total. Still, with expectations higher than AFC West foes Raiders and Broncos, and non-division games against the Steelers, Cardinals, Titans, Buccaneers, Patriots and Panthers, I like the Chargers chances for success and 9 or more wins in 2024 with an alternate total over 9.5 at a plus price (+152) also in play.

You can bet on it.

AFC West Chiefs and Chargers originally posted at OSGA on Aug. 2