AFC South Texans And Jaguars 2024 NFL Schedules, Odds And Betting Preview

The 2024 NFL season kicks off with a Thursday/Friday doubleheader starting Sept. 5 with the full Week 1 Sunday schedule Sept. 8. The two-time defending Super Bowl champions Kansas City Chiefs (-3, 46.5) host the Baltimore Ravens on Thursday, Sept. 5 in an AFC playoff rematch with those two teams the AFC favorites to reach Super Bowl LIX on Feb. 9, 2025 in New Orleans. The AFC South Texans and Jaguars are shooting to move up in the AFC pecking order with both teams led by recent No. 1 top picks at quarterback. The season preview for the 2024 AFC South favorites Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars is provided with odds, key games and information you can bet on.

NFL Week 1 Matchups And Odds – My update in Forbes

But as training camp continues and football and fantasy fans get the juices flowing ahead of the 2024 NFL season, sports bettors are pouring through the teams schedules, rosters, stats, odds, futures and props and making bets at leading online sportsbooks. That includes on the AFC teams and NFC teams with AFC South Texans and Jaguars.

AFC West – Chiefs and Chargers
AFC West – Raiders and Broncos 
AFC East – Bills and Jets
AFC East – Dolphins and Patriots
AFC North – Ravens and Bengals
AFC North – Browns and Steelers
AFC South – Titans and Colts

 

Football odds from top online sportsbooks refresh periodically and are subject to change, including on props and live betting. 

Houston Texans

Season Win Total: 9.5 (Over -150)
Division Odds: +100 / AFC Odds: +800 / Super Bowl Odds: +1400
Record Last 2 Years: 10-7, 3-13
Head Coach: DeMeco Ryans (2nd year)

Texans Schedule, Odds and Props

Division games

Week 1 at Indianapolis Colts (HOU -1.5 / 48)
Week 4 Jacksonville Jaguars (HOU -3.5 / 47.5)
Week 8 Indianpolis Colts (HOU -4 / 48 )
Week 12 Tennessee Titans (HOU -6 / 46.5)
Week 13 at Jacksonville Jaguars (HOU +1 / 47 )
Week 18 at Tennessee Titans (HOU -3 / 45)

Other Key Games
Week 2 Chicago Bears (HOU -3.5 / 47) SNF
Week 5 Buffalo Bills (HOU -1.5/ 48)
Week 7 at Green Bay (HOU +2.5/ 48.5)
Week 9 at New York Jets (HOU +3 / 45 )  Thurs
Week 10 Detroit Lions (HOU -1 / 50) SNF
Week 11 at Dallas Cowboys (HOU +3 / 49) MNF
Week 15 Miami Dolphins (HOU -2.5 / 49)
Week 16 at Kansas City Chiefs (HOU +4.5 / 47) Sat
Week 17 at Baltimore Ravens (HOU +1.5 / 46.5) Wed., Dec. 25

Bye: Week 14

Home: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Baltimore
Away: Indianapolis, Jacksonville, Tennessee, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, NY Jets, Kansas City, Dallas

Key Player Props (regular season)

QB CJ Stroud – 4200.5 O/U Passing Yards / 27.5 Pass TD’s / 10.5 INT
RB Joe Mixon – O/U 850.5 Rushing Yards /  Rushing TD’s
RB  – O/U 775.5 Rushing Yards / 7 Rushing TD’s
WR Stefon Diggs – O/U 925.5 Rec Yards / 77.5 Receptions / 5.5 Rec TD’s
WR Nico Collins – O/U 1,025 Receiving Yards / 72.5 Receptions / 5.5 Rec TD’s
WR Tank Dell – O/U 850.5 Rec Yards / 65.5 Receptions / 4.5 Rec TD’s
TE Dalton Schultz – O/U 550.5 Rec Yards / 52.5 Receptions / 3.5 Rec TD’s
DE Danielle Hunter – O/U 10.5 Sacks / LB A Al-Shaair 140.5 Tackles & Ass

Stats and Notes (check back ahead of season for more betting notes). Handicapping and research includes sources and stats from beat writers, team sites and press notes, bettors and newsletters or betting guides like VSiN, Sharp Football, Playbook, CleveAnalytics, ESPN Stats & Info and more including FairwayJay’s proprietary data base and stats.

The Texans went from worst to first in the AFC South last season, winning 10 games and the AFC South after just 3 wins in 2022. Quarterback CJ Stroud was voted Offensive Rookie of the Year and added to the Pro Bowl after passing for 4,108 yards and 8.2 yards per attempt and a 23 to 5 TD-INT ratio during the regular season. Defensive end Will Anderson, Jr. was voted Defensive Rookie of the Year. DeMeco Ryans was AFC Coach of the Year in his first season as head coach of the Texans. Houston won the weaker AFC South scoring 377 points and allowing 353 points while out-yarding opponents by just +06 yards per game. Still, the Texans had the worst injury luck in the league and the most adjusted games lost (AGL) to the offensive line – only strengthening CJ Stouds impressive season. General Manager Nick Caserio has jump started the rebuild with solid drafts the past two years and added a big haul of proven players as free agents this season. Much is due to the Texans fleecing the Browns in the trade of dipsh* QB Deshawun Watson in 2022. The Texans now play a first place schedule in 2024 that ranks top-5 most difficult in the NFL. It includes five division champions and two other playoff teams, but none in the first four weeks when the Texans are favorites each game. Houston has added some defensive reinforcements, but must improve in the secondary after ranking No. 26 in EPA per dropback facing the 4th easiest schedule last season. The Texans pass defense allowed 68.2% completions last season – worst in the AFC. Now Houston faces a first place schedule in 2024 and many top-tier QB’s including Mahomes, Jackson, Allen, Prescott, Rodgers, Tua, Love, Goff, Lawrence and three rookie QB’s over the last two years who were drafted high in Round 1. Still, Houston is the most talented team in the AFC South and the adjustment in futures odds seems worthy with the additional solid personnel added in free agency to support two Rookie of the Year’s who appear primed to excel. While Houston is on a fast track and rising, they still only have to position units ranked top 10 in the NFL this season – QB and WR with both No. 5. The running game must improve after averaging just 92 yard per game last season (No. 28). Using RB’s only rushing stats, Houston has ranked No. 26 or worse each of the past four seasons. An improved offensive line that has the highest payroll in the league and less injuries should increase production in the running game for 2024 operating under a zone-blocking scheme OC Bobby Slowik learned under SF coach Kyle Shanahan.

Stroud has room to improve like so many young quarterbacks, and especially when facing pressure. He had the No. 2 largest splits in the NFL last season when pressured: No pressure: #2 in EPA/att (+0.42), #7 in success rate (55%), #3 in YPA (9.3) – Pressured: #27 in EPA/att (-0.53), #35 in success rate (25%), #30 in YPA (5.4).

Pro Football Focus Offensive Line Rankings Entering 2024 Season (Texans No. 22, Jaguars No. 23)

Betting: Don’t pay attention to meaningless team trends, and especially in the Texans case with so much player turnover and improvement after years of futility. For example, Under the total is 6-1 in the last seven games of the Jaguars-Texans series played in Houston. Does that matter with new top QB’s and so much personnel changes? The Texans could be a solid over the total team in games this season if their defense continues to have issues defending the pass and now facing many top-tier quarterbacks. The Texans allowed 7.7 yards per pass attempt (29th) and finished 19th in EPA per dropback in 2023. Combined with QB Stroud and a healthy offensive line with top-tier receivers, Texans games should be entertaining and offer more scoring with the Bills, Packers, Lions and Cowboys games all early-season targets for more scoring despite higher totals that may only rise.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Season Win Total: 8.5 (Over -115)
Division Odds: +265 / AFC Odds: +2500 / Super Bowl Odds: +5000
Record Last 2 Years: 9-8, 9-8
Head Coach: Doug Pederson (3rd year)

Jaguars Schedule, Odds and Props

Division games

Week 4 at Houston Texans (JAX +3.5 / 47.5) Thurs
Week 5 Indianpolis Colts (JAX -2.5 / 47)
Week 13 Houston Texans  (JAX -1 / 47)
Week 14 at Tennessee Titans (JAX -1.5 /45)
Week 17 Tennessee Titans (JAX -4 / 46)
Week 18 at Indianapolis Colts (JAX / 44.5)

Other Key Games
Week 1 at Miami Dolphins (JAX +3.5 / 49)
Week 2 Cleveland Browns (JAX -1 / 45)
Week 3 at Buffalo Bills (JAX +5 / 49) MNF
Week 6 vs. Chicago Bears (JAX -1 / 47.5) London
Week 7 vs. New England Patriots (JAX -6.5 / 42.5) London
Week 9 at Philadelphia Eagles (JAX +3.5 / 47 ) SNF
Week 11 at Detroit Lions (JAX +4 / 50)
Week 15 New York Jets (JAX +1 / 46)
Week 16 at Las Vegas Raiders (JAX -1 / 45.5)

Bye: Week 12

Home: Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Green Bay, Minnesota, New England, NY Jets, Cleveland
Away: Houston, Indianapolis, Tennessee, Buffalo, Chicago, Detroit, Miami, Las Vegas, Philadelphia

Key Player Props

QB Trevor Lawrence – 3,800.5 O/U Passing Yards / 21.5 Pass TD’s / 12.5 INT
RB Travis Etienne, Jr. – O/U 700.5 Rushing Yards / 6.5 Rushing TD’s / 350 Rec Yards / 45.5 Receptions
RB  – O/U 775.5 Rushing Yards / 7 Rushing TD’s
WR Brian Thomas, Jr. – O/U 750.5 Rec Yards / 55.5 Receptions / 4.5 Rec TD’s
WR Christian Kirk – O/U 900.5 Rec. Yards / 75.5 Receptions / 4.5 Rec TD’s
TE Evan Ingram – O/U 775.5 Rec Yards / 85.5 Receptions / 3.5 Rec TD’s
LB Josh Allen – O/U 4.5 Sacks / LB Travon Walker 8.5 Sacks / LB Foye Oluokun – O/U 165.5 Tackles & Assists

Stats and Notes – The Jaguars achieved consecutive winning seasons for the first time in 20 years going 9-8 in each of the past two seasons. However, the Jags were 8-3 through 11 games last season and had better than a 94% chance to make the playoffs while also chasing a second-straight division title. A two game division lead to start November turned into a 1-5 finish, worst in the league, and Jacksonville missed the playoffs. Quarterback Trevor Lawrence played through a variety of injuries including a bad ankle sprain suffered in Week 13. He finished with a second-consecutive 4,000 yard passing season, but 14 INT’s and a career-high 35 sacks were untimely, and Lawrence through 21 TD passes to 25 the previous season. Still, Lawrence saw the 3rd lowest amount of time to throw in the league and the EPA lost on his receivers’ drops ranked highest in the NFL. He ranked among the worst in the league when pressured or blitzed, and over the last three seasons, his 21 lost fumbles is worst in the league. Lawrence finished finished 16th in EPA and 8th in success rate last season, but was better before the injury in Week 13. Running back Travis Etienne had a 1,000 yard rushing season despite poor blocking, and the Jaguars rank No. 23 in PFF’s offensive line rankings to start the 2024 season despite having all five offensive lineman drafted in the first or second round. The Jags running game ranked 30th in yards per carry, 29th in EPA per attempt, and 27th in success rate last season. The Jaguars fumbled the ball on offense the 2nd most times in the NFL last season and recovered only 34% of those 23 fumbles, the 2nd worst mark in the league. The defense will now operate under new coordinator Ryan Nielsen, who improved the Atlanta Falcons defense last season. The Jaguars defense needs to improve on creating takeaways and turnovers, as they have failed to record a takeaway in 19 games over the last three seasons. The Jags defensive front seven ranks highest (No. 7 in NFL) in Sharp Football’s positional team rankings, but the collective total of all Jaguars units ranks No. 20 in the league. The defense was the least penalized unit in the NFL last season.

Betting: The Jaguars have the toughest opening four games of the season with road games at Miami, Buffalo and Houston and a home game in Week 2 vs. the Browns. Jacksonville is a ‘Dog of >3 points in those three road games and a projected -1 point favorite vs. the Browns. The Jaguars first division game is Week 5 vs. the Colts followed by back-to-back games in London Week 6 and 7. Jacksonville is 6-0-1 ATS as a home favorite when coming off a SU underdog win. They are 1-9 vs. an opponent with rest. The Jaguars finished under .500 in one score games last season for the (remarkable) 10th straight season, and if that changes, they can move up and become division champs again and far exceed ATS projections. Only six home games for Jacksonville due to a pair of games in London, which again tells us the NFL cares less about the Jacksonville market, where the fan base and support is among the worst in the league. If you’re interested in betting on Jaguars success or futures, perhaps wait until after Week 4 and you’ll likely get much better odds with a potential poor start. Jacksonville will face the projected second-toughest schedule in the league over the first 13 weeks. Eight of their 12 games are against teams that made the playoffs in 2023, including all four in the first four weeks.

You can bet on it.

AFC South Texans and Jaguars originally posted at OSGA on Aug. 15.