College Football Handicapping – Pac 12 Plays

College Football Pac-12 Plays Part of Saturday Doubleheader

The parity of the Pac-12 will cost the conference a shot at the college football playoff unless Washington (6-0) can run the table. They have a shot following their bye this week with key games at home and a season finale at state-rival Washington State.

We’ll analyze the Washing State Cougars game as they try to bury the Bruins on Saturday, Oct. 15. UCLA visits Pullman to try and slow the Puma’s and the Bruins defense will have to carry the play with QB Josh Rosen questionable and a game day decision with shoulder and leg injuries. That game goes Saturday night, where rain is expected to be falling during the day with an 80% chance into the evening and winds up to 15-20 MPH during the game.

The other contest of interest is in the desert, where sunny skies and 90 degree temperatures greet the USC Trojans, who visit Tucson looking to claw the Wildcats and keep them winless in Pac-12 play.

Be sure to shop the best lines at your available sports books, and monitor the injury reports and updates as both games have quarterback injury issues.   

USC Trojans -9.5
Arizona Wildcats +9.5

Total: 64

Kickoff at 3:30 ET from Arizona Stadium in Tucson, AZ.

Surface: FieldTurf     TV: Fox Sports 1

This line has risen from the opener of 7, as USC is taking money and the total has shot up sharply as well by a full touchdown.

This is the 100^th anniversary of the first USC-Arizona game. USC is 3-3 this season including 2-2 in Pac-12 play with a pair of road losses at Stanford and Utah. But the Pac-12 South is wide open with three teams tied on top at 2-1 followed by these Trojans, who we expect to roll up plenty of points in victory at Arizona; the bottom feeder in the South at 0-3. Since QB Sam Darnold came in to relieve Max Browne against Stanford, the Trojans offense has taken flight. USC averaged less than 5 yards per play with Browne, but with Darnold at the controls, the Trojans have averaged 7.9, 7.7 and 7.2 in their last three games while averaging over 500 yards per game. That includes last week when the scored just 21 points but racked up 544 yards against a solid Colorado defense. Three fumbles curtailed their scoring production, but the Trojans should have plenty of success moving the ball against an Arizona defense that has allowed 6.5 yards per play in three Pac-12 contests.

Three lost fumbles were also the difference in USC’s 31-27 defeat in Darnold’s first start at Utah as the Utes scored a TD in the closing seconds for the spread-covering victory. The ‘Cats return home following 3-straight losses including last week at Utah 36-23 when they allowed a balanced 455 yards and had to score a long, late TD to make the score more respectable. USC should claw the ‘Cats with their talented wide receiving core, and the Trojans defense is good enough to slow a pretty potent Arizona offense that will likely be without QB Brandon Dawkins, as he remains questionable with a concussion suffered in last week’s loss and was already dealing with a rib injury. Freshman Khalil Tate is expected to make his first career start against the team from his hometown, given that star QB Anu Solomon continues to be sidelined with a knee injury. But the duel threat will have a tough time passing with success against a talented Trojans defense and top-notch secondary led by supremely athletic Adoree’ Jackson.

The Wildcats were banged up going into last week’s game, but do get the return of RB Nick Wilson for this contest, and he’ll be a much-needed workhorse to a depleted backfield. On defense, the Wildcats line could be getting some reinforcements this weekend as Luca Bruno likely returns to the lineup after sitting out at Utah, and Parker Zellers is now questionable after missing the last few games.

Well aware that USC is 2-8 ATS away from home under head coach Clay Helton, and that Arizona is 5-1 ATS as home ‘Dog under coach Rich Rodriguez and 8-1 as ‘Dog against USC overall. But the Trojans are playing at a higher level now, and USC has beaten Arizona in five of the last six years. The Trojans also have the superior special teams in this match-up to set up better field position, and USC now drops down in class a bit after facing Alabama, Stanford and Utah away from Los Angeles. The USC offense should convert plenty of yards into more points even without leading rusher and senior Justin Davis, who is now out 2-3 weeks with a leg injury. But Ronald Jones is a proven performer who rushed for nearly 1,000 yards last year and should provide a balanced enough attack. A higher-scoring USC victory is the most likely outcome if Arizona QB Dawkins makes post, which we don’t expect, making a desperate Arizona victory more difficult to get. Arizona will likely be trying to play catchup with an unproven freshman quarterback that will be forced into more mistakes and down and distance situations.

UCLA Bruins +8
Washington State Cougars -8

Total 52.5

Kickoff at 10:30 ET from Martin Stadium in Pullman, WA

Surface: FieldTurf     TV: ESPN

The night cap out West is the featured game on ESPN, as the Pullman Puma tries to take down UCLA again following last year’s upset in LA as a double-digit ‘Dog, 31-27. The Bruins allowed a 21-yard TD pass by QB Luke Falk with 3 seconds remaining to knock UCLA from the top spot in the Pac-12 South. Now the Bruins look for redemption against the high-flying Cougars, who have won three in a row and covered four straight following their shocking opening week defeat to Eastern Washington.

But the value on Washington State has now caught up to them, and the line is rich here versus a top-tier UCLA defense. Bruins QB Rosen is questionable, which is driving this betting line, and we’ll suggest an ‘under’ the total play for certain should he not play. However, the passing game of Wazzu and QB Falk will be sternly tested. He leads the nation in completion percentage (74%), but faces more pressure this week and a top-tier UCLA pass defense that allows less than 49% completions. The Bruins do not give up easy pass play, and have allowed less than 5.7 yards per pass against every opponent this season.

Washington State’s offense has been more balanced with an improved running game this season, allowing them to rank top-20 in the nation in time of possession running coach Leach’s ‘Air Raid’ offense. But it’s the Wazzu run defense that is also good. UCLA has a poor rushing attack, and with Rosen potentially out, the match-ups on both sides for both teams appear to be good and suggest less scoring than projected.

Monitor the status of UCLA quarterback Rosen to game time, as redshirt senior Mike Fafaul would start and he struggled last week vs Arizona State in a 23-20 defeat, replacing the injured Rosen and going just 3/11 for 44 yards with 2 interceptions and a pair of sacks in the final drive. The Bruins did however out-gain ASU 443-275 with Rosen passing for 400 yards and the defense slowing a potent ASU offense. Despite a poor running attack thus far this season, new offensive coordinator Kennedy Polamalu feels the offense is close to coming together with more balance.

Washington State is coming off a dominating performance in a 42-16 upset win at Stanford. The Cougars gained 458 yards and a win over UCLA will improve the Cougars to 3-0 in the Pac-12 and mark the best 3-game stretch under coach Leach on the Palouse. We still suggest the line is a bit rich, noting that UCLA defense and performance again last week. The Bruins need Rosen at quarterback, along with the ability to control the ball and keep their defense fresh. We’ll look UCLA’s way should Rosen be cleared to start and play, and monitor a second half bet as well based on his health and overall first half play.

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