College Football Handicapping – Tennessee Shooting for Special Season

Evaluating Tennessee Volunteers Season Win Total

The Tennessee Volunteers are the chic pick to win the SEC East this season and play in the SEC Championship game. Many victories for the Volunteers are expected and the touting of Tennessee has shown at the sports books too. Tennessee’s season wins opened nearly three months ago at 9.5 (over +105). Since that time, the Volunteers have taken money to win at least 10 games, and you can certainly forecast a special season in Rocky Top.

Tenneseee is currently offered at both 9.5 (over -130) and 10 (over +135), so shop the best season win total and price whether you’re betting over or under.

To see my full article and analysis on Tennessee, click here or go to osga.com, as I write for Off Shore Gaming Association as well. I’ve modified the article on this site with additional info, insight and insider links to the Tennessee team.

Tennessee is at the top of the talent pool this season. They have experienced starters, depth, quality coaching and a manageable schedule. Special teams is often overlooked, and the Vols had a top-5 overall ranking last year and return everyone. The optimistic fans excitement is approaching the 1998 level – the last year Tennessee won the SEC title on their way to an undefeated season and national championship.

Coach Butch Davis enters his fourth year and he’s rebuilt Tennessee football for sustained success going from 5 to 7 to 9 wins last year. The Vols blew three double-digit leads last season, with two in the fourth quarter to Oklahoma and Florida, and lost to Alabama in the closing minutes 19-14. Now 17 starters and 57 letterman return to take the next step forward. Coach Davis offered some insight on Tennessee at SEC media days.

The Volunteers offense has gone from 23 points per game to 29 to 35 PPG last year and senior QB Joshua Dobbs is surrounded with top skill talent including All-SEC running back Jalen Hurd and junior captain and RB Alvin Kamara. With one of the league’s strongest offensive lines, Dobbs should continue to produce like last season’s 3,000+ combined passing and rushing yards with 26 touchdowns. The offense will be balanced and strong after averaging 423 yards per game in SEC play last season with the league’s No. 2 rushing game and 35 PPG also tied for No. 2 in SEC play. Tennessee along with Alabama were the only two teams to average at least 200 yards both rushing and passing, and the Vols look stronger this season while the SEC is clearing in a down year with many of the weaker defenses in the East.

The Vols defense has also improved and new defensive coordinator Bob Shoop has eight returning starters from a defensive unit that allowed just 20 PPG last season and 362 yards per game. For the third straight season, the Volunteers made significant improvement on defense, and this season many strong defenders will lead the the ‘Orange Swarm’ with coach Shoops’ emphasis on slowing and stopping the opponents running game.

The Volunteers are expected to start 3-0 with a most anticipated game September 10 when Tennessee and Virginia Tech will play in front of a record crowd of 150,000+ fans at the Bristol Motor Speedway.

The hype really hits September 24 as Tennessee opens the SEC schedule with Florida. The Gators have beaten the Vols 11-straight times and last year was a devastating loss for Tennessee, blowing a 27-14 fourth quarter lead and allowing a late TD on 4th and 14. But Florida lost a ton of talent, has a new transfer QB and the Vols motivation will be monumental. Tennessee will emerge victorious over Florida at home in a game that has a huge circle on their schedule.

The next three games on Tennessee’s schedule should determine whether the Vols will eclipse their season win total and have a shot at pushing towards the SEC title and BSC playoffs. Regardless of the Florida game result, Tennessee will be in a big letdown spot when they travel to Georgia the following week where the Dawgs will be ready for redemption, as Tennessee came back from a 24-3 deficit last year to beat Georgia 38-31. Will the Vols carry the Florida victory momentum to Georgia or suffer a let down following that big emotional win? Worse yet, what if they lose to Florida – what a letdown spot to overcome at Georgia.

Tennessee then travels to Kyle Field in College Station for a tough back-to-back situation versus Texas A&M. With SEC favorite Alabama on deck in a huge home game October 15, the Vols could be vulnerable at A&M. Preseason lines for those games listed at the Golden Nugget in Las Vegas suggest the Volunteers have a solid shot to win each game, but clearly the situations and schedule will have to be evaluated along with the stat profiles and other factors. We’ll monitor injuries and results, but should Tennessee be rolling and unbeaten into this 3-game stretch, the Volunteers will likely be favored by even more.

Tennessee (pk) at Georgia

Tennessee (-5) at Texas A&M

Alabama at Tennessee (-1)

Following a bye week Oct. 22, Tennessee will be a big favorite in each of their remaining games against the lesser teams in the SEC East; none of which went to a bowl game last year. Another schedule analysis and outlook is provided here as you evaluate Tennessee’s season wins and forecast the results on a game-by-game approach.

The SEC is in a down year, most teams are replacing their starting QB, and three new head coaches take over SEC East teams. Tennessee does not play some of the best teams in the West in LSU, Ole Miss, Arkansas and Auburn. The SEC is a defensive-line activated league. The great defenses and best teams win the line of scrimmage and the battle up front, and only Alabama rates stronger than Tennessee’s offensive and defensive line on this year’s schedule. And the Volunteers play the Crimson Tide at home this season.

Last season 12 of the 14 SEC teams had season wins posted at 7 or more. This year there are just 7 teams lined with 7 or more wins. It’s the weakest we’ve seen the SEC in over 5 years, and just five teams are projected to win as many as 8 regular season games.

Tennessee is 13-5 over their last 18 games with the five losses by a combined 25 points. They have to work their way through winning the close games, but the Volunteers overcame some major disappointment and adversities early last season. Following the loss to Arkansas, their third in five games, the Tennessee players heard the negative noise, clutter and distractions. But they showed their competitive character to finish 6-0 including a blowout bowl win over Northwestern 45-6. That positive momentum and mind set should carry over as the pieces are in place and the opponents are right for double-digit victories and a special season in Rocky Top.