NBA Handicapping – Conference Finals

Cavaliers Big Favorites in Eastern Conference Finals

The conference finals are set and the #1 Cleveland Cavaliers take on the #2 Toronto Raptors in the East, while the #1 Golden State Warriors battle the #3 Oklahoma City Thunder in the West.

Series prices are posted at various sports books, and betting shops have posted series odds. In Las Vegas, odds below are from Westgate SuperBook (@LVSuperBook): Public support is showing strongly on the Cavaliers with a huge inflated price.

Cavaliers (-1100) vs Raptors (+700)

Warriors (-420) vs Thunder (+350)

The Cavaliers have been immediately bet up to -1600 with the take back on the Raptors at +900.  The Thunder have taken some money also with the adjusted prices showing Warriors -400 and Thunder +330.

I wrote this article for Off Shore Gaming Association. 

Bettors are piling on the Cleveland Cavaliers as they are 8-0 in the playoffs heading into the finals. Clearly the Cavs are playing their best basketball and focused on a return trip to the finals with a healthier and more cohesive core this season. While I wont’ recommend a play on the big underdog Raptors, it’s worth noting in my article that since 2002 when the league went to a best-of-7 series in all rounds, NO team that went 8-0 in the first two rounds of the playoffs made the NBA finals.

2011-12 SAN ANTONIO:

The Spurs lost the last four games of the West finals to the Thunder; losing the series 4-2. San Antonio won their first eight games in the opening two rounds by better than +13 points per game. The regular season started December 25 and was shortened from the normal 82 games per team to 66 due to the fourth NBA lockout in history.

2009-10 ORLANDO:

The Magic lost 4-2 in the East finals to the Celtics after winning the first 2 rounds by +17 points per game going 7-1 ATS.

2008-09 CLEVELAND:

The Cavs lost 4-2 in the East finals to the Magic after winning the first 2 rounds by +16 points per game with all wins by at least 10 points going 7-0-1 ATS. Cleveland was 66-16 during the regular season with the best record in the NBA.

2004-05 MIAMI:

The Heat lost 4-3 in the East finals to the Pistons, including Games 6 and 7 in very low-scoring games. Miami had won the first 2 rounds by +10 points per game.

Note too that three of these teams were a #1 seed like Cleveland, and the other was a #2 seed. All were strong favorites to win the conference finals.

Working against the Raptors however is not only the strength and stars on the Cavaliers roster, but also that the league will clearly benefit in ratings and revenue if Cleveland advances to the finals. The Raptors are going to have to overcome a number of factors to pull the upset, and that includes officiating and the league’s preference to have the Cavaliers and their stars in the finals against either the Warriors or Thunder, who have plenty of star power.

We won’t suggest the fix is in, but the NBA is more star-driven entertainment rather than on-the-level athletic competition. Disgraced ex-NBA referee Tim Donaghy, who was sentenced to 15-months in prison for the 2007 gambling scandal, noted in court filings that the league routinely encouraged refs to ring up bogus fouls to manipulate results, while discouraging them from calling technical fouls on star players.

Believe Donaghy or not, he also noted that ‘organized crime will always have a hand in sports’. When asked in an interview a year ago how much of a role does the league play in propelling those stars and protecting them? Donaghy replied:

“A huge amount. The craft of officiating is taught that people come and pay top dollar to see people like Shaquille O’Neal, Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, all the stars, and you have to make sure when you blow the whistle against those individuals that it’s a foul that you basically can’t let go. And if there’s another player in that area, and you can dish that foul off to them, do that, because people come to see these guys play, and that’s what they want done.”

LeBron James is one series win away from advancing to his sixth straight NBA Finals, including four trips and two titles with the Miami Heat from 2011-2014. I wouldn’t bet against him and the Cavs advancing to the finals, but the 0-4 situation surrounding teams that failed to get to the NBA finals after starting 8-0 in the playoffs is interesting.

Meanwhile, Golden State and Oklahoma City are the top-2 teams in offensive efficiency this season, and feature three of the top-4 players in the league in player efficiency ratings with Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Warriors beat the Thunder all three times during the regular season including 121-118 in overtime on Stephen Curry’s 37-footer. All three games had at least 224 points scored, and this is expected to be a highly-entertaining series with plenty of scoring and star-power.

We’ve been profiting in the playoffs for members like a super-star ourselves following a 9-0 ATS run in Round 2 and now 14-4 ATS in the playoffs. If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to research information, analyze match-ups and utilize years of experience in handicapping playoff basketball, then join me and other members for more victories and value in this year’s NBA playoffs as we continue our late season success that included a 36-13 ATS run through the NBA regular season from January 28-April 15.