College Basketball Handicapping – Sweet Sixteen Top Seeds

Sweet Sixteen Top Seeds – Are They Vulnerable?

The Sweet Sixteen tips off Thursday, March 24, and I thought I would take you inside the numbers with past results for #1 seeds.  The past performance of Sweet Sixteen top seeds is proven, as #1 seeds are 83-22 SU since 1985.  That includes 3-0 last year when Duke, Wisconsin and Kentucky all won and covered in the Sweet Sixteen. Of note is that these top seeds are 23-0 SU vs. teams seeded #6 or greater. Last year those three teams played seeds #4 or #5 in the Sweet Sixteen.

Duke is back into the Sweet Sixteen again this year as a #4 seed after a fortunate draw, and recall the Blue Devils won the national title over Wisconsin last year while going 6-0 SU/ATS in the tournament. Wisconsin is also back in this year’s Sweet Sixteen and the Badgers won both NCAA tournament games as underdog this year and were 3-0 SU/ATS starting in this round last year until losing to Duke in the Finals.

This year’s three remaining #1 seeds and Sweet Sixteen pairings are listed below.

#1 Kansas ( -6.5 ) vs. #5 Maryland – KFC Yum! Center, Louisville, KY

#1 Oregon ( -3 ) vs. #4 Duke – Honda Center, Anaheim, CA

#1 North Carolina (-5.5) vs #5 Indiana – Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia, PA

#1 Virginia ( -5 ) vs. #4 Iowa State – United Center, Chicago, IL

So with history as our guide, note that #1 seeds are 59-22 SU vs. teams seeded #4 or #5.  Until last year, #1 seeds were getting bounced out of this round, but all three were victorious in spread-covering wins last year.

All four of this year’s #1 seeds out-scored their opponents by an average of at least 10 points per game entering the NCAA tournament (Oregon +9.9).  While the games and opponents get tougher as the tournament moves forward, note that Kansas and North Carolina were the only No. 1 seeds to extend and win by a double-digit margin in the round of 32.

2015

#1 Kentucky (-13.5) beat #5 West Virginia 78-39

#1 Duke (-4.5) beat #5 Utah 63-57

#1 Wisconsin (-6) beat #4 North Carolina 79-72

2014

#1 Virginia (+2.5) lost to #4 Michigan State 61-59

2013

#1 Indiana (-5) lost to #4 Syracuse 61-50

#1 Kansas (-1) lost to #4 Michigan 87-85 in OT

In 2012, another #1 seed lost to #4 seed

#1 Michigan State (-5.5) lost to #4 seed Louisville 57-44

In 2011, two more upsets of #1 top-seeded teams

#1 Ohio State (-5.5) lost to #4 Kentucky 62-60

#1 Duke (-9.5) lost to #5 Arizona 93-77

Additional Sweet Sixteen ATS info over the last five years shows favorites 15-23 ATS with 13 of the 23 underdogs winning outright (1 push, 1 pick ’em). Thus, a money-line play is a worthy wager if you’re interested in the ‘Dogs.

Last year was the only time in the last five years of Sweet Sixteen action that the betting favorites were profitable (6-2).

There is another statistical profile that points to #1 seeds being more vulnerable to losing to a #4 or #5 seed in this round.  It’s a solid situation that uses scoring margin as another criteria in pointing to Sweet Sixteen winners. We’ll use that as a guide for more winners and try to improve on our 14-6 NCAA Tourney opening week run.

If you don’t have the time, energy or ability to consistently research stats and profiles that produce profit, then become a Fairway Follower and join me as a Member for the rest of the NCAA Tourney.

Best wishes in the Sweet Sixteen and beyond, and may you profit from the experience.